This Wednesday some unusual events are celebrated elections in Croatia marked by corruption accusationson the one hand, and pro-russian populism, for another. The two contenders—the conservative Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) party and the Rivers of Justice coalition led by the Social Democratic Party (SDP)—have engaged in a dialectical confrontation that has raised the tone of tension in the country.
The actual Prime Minister of the country, the conservative Andrej Plenkovic, is running for a third term, although polls indicate his party could lose its majority due to a series of corruption scandals. In mid-March, he decided to call early elections to strengthen the HDZ's position in the Croatian parliament, a move that he in retrospect could be devastating for his party.
For months, it seemed that the conservative party would achieve an easy victory in the April 17 elections, however, the country's president, social democrat Zoran Milanovic surprised the country by presenting himself as a contender of Plenkovic, promising to create a “better and fairer country.” He Constitutional Court quickly rejected Milanovic's applicationsince the presidency is largely a ceremonial position for a person with no political affiliation.
[La UE aprueba la entrada de Croacia en Schengen pero vuelve a dar portazo a Bulgaria y Rumanía]
According to the ruling of the Constitutional Court, Milanovic had to resign from his position before presenting himself as a candidate in the legislative elections. Despite this, the social democratic leader refused to resign and continued to tour the country campaigning against the HDZ, although he announced that he would not head the lists of the Ríos de Justicia coalition and that he would cede the leadership to SDP president Peda Grbin, according to reported Europa Press.
A hegemony threatened by corruption
The HDZ has dominated Croatian politics since Croatia's independence from Yugoslavia in 1991. Among other aspects, the party led the country's accession to the European Union and the euro, and under its leadership the Adriatic coast has become one of the main tourist spots in Europe. However, several corruption scandals have plagued the party, something that has been taken advantage of by the opposition to campaign.
“Summarizing Andrej Plenkovic's mandate, some 30 ministers in total have left the government (over eight years) due to corruption, and this was used by the opposition in the campaign,” Ivan Rimac, professor of law at the University of Zagreb, explained to Reuters. “There have been issues relating to the misuse of EU funds and losses in public companies.”
[Putin agita el avispero de los Balcanes: drones rusos en Croacia y marchas por la “Madre Rusia” en Serbia]
The Executive also appointed Ivan Turudic as attorney general, a figure clearly close to the HDZ and who the opposition considers could benefit the party in court.
The coalition opposition has promised to wage a battle “without concessions against corruption”, in addition to promising “higher salaries and pensions.” “You can't do anything anymore if you don't know the 'person', have a connection or a party card,” declared SDP leader Pedja Grbin at a recent rally.
Social Democrat, Eurosceptic and pro-Russian?
When Milanovic He was prime minister between 2011 and 2016, expanded gay rights and attempted to expand the rights of the Serbian minority. However, he has since adopted a populist drift which could be more similar to Viktor Orbán's ideology. Milanović has repeatedly criticized the EU's support for Ukraine following the Russian invasion of the country, while he has claimed that the HDZ has failed to stop the arrival of immigrants.
Likewise, it has adopted a eurosceptic stance, even going so far as to assure last month that Croatia's only reason to remain in the EU is to continue receiving funds. He has also rejected Sweden and Finland joining NATO, in an evolution reminiscent of that of the Slovak leader Robert Fico, whose party, Smer, was expelled from the group of European socialists for agreeing with an ultranationalist formation.
What do the surveys say?
A poll published by state television last Wednesday indicated that the HDZ would win the elections with 60 seats, although its data would drop compared to the 66 it currently occupies in the 151-seat parliament. The coalition led by SDP would get 44 seats, which would increase its number of deputies by three. In third place would be the National Movement, a right-wing, anti-immigration party, with 14 seats. The liberals of Most would close the parliament, with nine deputies, and the green party Mozemo, with eight.
