In short
- The Met Office forecasts a wetter and warmer-than-normal autumn for the UK, driven by a strengthening El Niño expected to peak in November or December.
- Met Office Chief Meteorologist Ian Lisk said the latest seasonal forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions through autumn.
- The Environment Agency’s National Drought Group, which met on Thursday, reported no change to drought status in the UK.
- Summer 2026 was provisionally declared the UK’s hottest on record, following five widespread heatwaves and 40 days of temperatures above 30C (86F).
- Since 1900, only one winter following a strong El Niño, that of 1982/83, brought widespread disruptive snow to the UK.
The UK is forecast to have a wetter and warmer-than-normal autumn, the Met Office says, driven by a strengthening El Niño expected to peak in November or December as one of the strongest such events on record. Above-average sea temperatures around the UK will also push land temperatures higher.
What is driving the wetter UK autumn forecast?
The Met Office expects a stormier season than usual, with the chances of wet and windy weather higher than normal, particularly from November. El Niño — the warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean — is continuing to strengthen.
Met Office Chief Meteorologist Ian Lisk said: “The latest seasonal forecasts suggest an increased likelihood of wetter than average conditions as we move through autumn, which would be consistent with the historical influence of El Niño events.”
Lisk cautioned that El Niño is only one of several factors affecting UK weather: “While this event may become one of the strongest El Niño events on record, that does not automatically mean more severe impacts for the UK.” Forecasters also track the phenomenon in other ocean basins, including its role in suppressing Atlantic hurricane formation.
Will the rain end the UK drought?
A wetter late autumn and winter would bring relief to parched regions of the UK. The Environment Agency (EA) National Drought Group, which met on Thursday, said there had been no change to drought status despite recently more unsettled weather.
Helen Wakeham, Director of Water at the EA, said “drought recovery is a very long process” and is complete only once reservoirs, rivers and groundwater supplies return to normal.
Heavier rainfall also raises the chance of flooding. The UK could see another round of “weather whiplash”, moving from one extreme to another, as happened in 2025 when a summer of record-breaking heat was followed by autumn storms and floods.
How warm will autumn 2026 be?
Autumn is likely to be warmer than normal, the Met Office says. Summer 2026 was provisionally declared the UK’s hottest on record, after five widespread heatwaves and 40 days of temperatures above 30C (86F), a period in which August tied July 2023 as the hottest month on record globally.
The heatwaves since late spring produced marine heatwaves around the UK, with sea surface temperatures rising up to 5C above normal. Warmer seas tend to keep land temperatures higher than they would otherwise be. A warmer-than-normal autumn is consistent with global warming trends, and research has linked cleaner air to faster global warming.
Could the UK see snow this autumn or winter?
Snowfall this autumn is unlikely, and the Met Office says it is too early to say whether winter will be especially cold or snowy. El Niño years bring an enhanced chance of cold and snowy weather in late winter across north-west Europe, but the UK’s position on the edge of the Atlantic complicates that pattern, and other meteorological influences can prevent the northerly or easterly winds that bring colder air.
Looking back at winters that followed a strong El Niño since 1900, only one — 1982/83 — saw widespread disruptive snow in the UK.
Frequently asked questions
What does El Niño mean for UK weather this autumn?
The Met Office expects a wetter and warmer-than-normal autumn, with the chances of wet and windy weather higher than normal, particularly from November. El Niño is only one of several factors influencing UK weather.
Will the autumn rain end the drought in the UK?
The Environment Agency’s National Drought Group reported no change to drought status at its Thursday meeting. Helen Wakeham, the EA’s Director of Water, said drought recovery is only complete once reservoirs, rivers and groundwater supplies return to normal.
Will it snow in the UK this winter?
Snowfall is unlikely this autumn and the Met Office says it is too early to say whether winter will be especially cold or snowy. El Niño years raise the chance of cold, snowy late-winter weather in north-west Europe, but since 1900 only the winter of 1982/83 brought widespread disruptive snow.
With reporting from BBC News.
Stock image, not from the events described. Aronia leaves on a rainy autumn day in Tuntorp 11 — W.carter / Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)