April 12 () –
The Ibex 35 has lost 2.1% in the week due to investors' fear that inflation will remain above the central banks' objective and that, therefore, these organizations will not apply interest rate cuts.
In this way, the selective index stood at 10,686.0 integers at the close of this Friday. Compared to yesterday's session, it has, however, managed to advance 0.34%.
Among this week's references, XTB analyst Joaquín Robles highlights the CPI data for March in the United States, which has exceeded expectations for the third consecutive month, which highlights the “difficulty” in reducing inflation.
“After seeing inflation decline by 3% throughout 2023, the Fed believed that higher CPI readings in January and February 2024 represented a setback in a downward trajectory. However, given that the CPI reading March has also been higher than expected, analysts believe this is more than a coincidence, which means that hopes of an interest rate cut in June are fading,” says the XTB analyst.
In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to keep rates unchanged at its meeting, and has once again conditioned its decisions on knowing more data, so the April and May publications “will be decisive” to apply a possible cut in June.
“While in the US expectations about a first cut move until September, in Europe they are expected to begin in June,” Robles specifies.
At the business level, the expert points out that the companies most penalized by the current high rate environment have led the increases due to the possibility of a first cut in June. In this way, Colonial, Merlin Properties, Acciona Renovables, Solaria and Cellnex have ended with increases close to 3%.
On the other hand, the banking sector has suffered the most notable falls, since they could see how the interest margin begins to reduce. Grifols has also suffered a new cut in a week in which it announced its intention to issue debt to cover 2025 maturities.
In the US, the first quarter results season began today with the publication of JP Morgan's accounts, which have gained 6.3% more, to 12,594 million euros; Wells Fargo, which obtained a profit of 4,045 million euros, 8.5% less; Citigroup, which has recorded a 27% drop in its profit, to 3,166 million euros; and BlackRock, which gained 36% more, up to 1,479 million euros.
Among the most important data that will be known next week, Robles highlights the final inflation data for March in the euro zone. In addition, the presentation of results in the US with companies such as Goldman Sachs, ASML and Netflix will continue. In Spain, Bankinter, as usual, will give the starting signal for the rest of the Ibex 35 companies.
Taking into account only today's session, the biggest increases have been recorded by Repsol (+3.35%), Acciona (+2.32%), Endesa (+2.16%), Solaria (+2.07% ), Cellnex (+1.81%) and Naturgy (+1.76%). On the other hand, the most pronounced decreases have been those of IAG (-3.65%), Meliá (-2.49%), Banco Sabadell (-2.01%), Grifols (-1.58%) and Amadeus (-1.42%).
In Europe, the main stock markets have closed with a mixed performance, with increases of 0.91% in London and 0.15% in Milan, but falls of 0.16% in Paris and 0.13% in Frankfurt.
At the same time, the price of a barrel of Brent quality oil, a reference for the Old Continent, rose 1.48%, to 91.06 dollars, while that of Texas stood at 86.48 dollars, a 1.69% more.
In the foreign exchange market, the price of the euro depreciated 0.75% against the dollar, to 1.0646 'greenbacks', while in the debt market the interest required on the ten-year Spanish bond was at 3.186% after subtracting almost one tenth, with the risk premium (the differential with the German bond) at 81 points.
