The European Commission predicts a fall in inflation despite the rise in oil prices

This article was originally published in English

Some data better than expected suggest that inflation will be reduced by more than half this year, despite the increase in prices of the main raw Materialslike crude oil, as predicted by the European Commission.

The forecasts published today, May 15, show a growing optimism about the state of the economywhile voters, concerned about rising prices, prepare to go to the polls.

The EU Commissioner for the Economy, Paolo Gentiloni, stated in a statement that “we have turned the situation around after a very difficult year 2023” and predicted a 1% growth across the bloc this year, but added: “With two wars still raging not far from home, downside risks have increased.”

The fight against rising prices is considered the priority issue ahead of the European elections in June. According to an exclusive survey published by ‘Euronews’ in March, more than two thirds of Europeans consider that it should be a priority.

The Commission now predicts that EU inflation will fall to 2.7% this year, after reach a maximum of around 10% after the impact on the economy of the pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

To address these problems, the European Central Bank, which must keep euro area inflation at 2%, has raised interest rates in record numbers, and in April its Governing Council stated that its policy will remain restrictive “as long as necessary.”

He energy price continues to risebut the calmness of the markets for food and other products cools inflationary pressures, according to the Commission, which adds that the EU economy created two million jobs last year.

Spain with an inflation of 3.3% ‘controlled’

The Spanish interannual inflation report for April 2024 placed the inflation rate at 3.3%, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INE). This was a slight increase from 3.2% in March, as well as being the highest figure in three months. However, it continued below analyst estimateswhich reached 3.4%.

This rebound was due to rising food and gas pricesalthough the fall in electricity prices offset this effect to some extent.

The year-on-year core inflationwhich does not take into account energy and food prices due to their inherent volatility, ranked at 2.9%, compared to the 3.3% registered in March. This was the lowest figure since January 2022.

The Ministry of Economy has pointed out that the inflation data continues to reflect the capacity of the Spanish economy to make the highest economic growth among the main countries of the euro zone with a moderation of prices and the maintenance of support for the most vulnerable.