Stop autocratic expansion in Southeast Asia

Parallel to slope global of democratizationthe spread of authoritarianism and the deterioration of human rights in Southeast Asia continue apace. The region appears to be on its way of the autocracywith countries undoing their advances in democratic matters.

Indonesia –the largest electoral democracy in the region– has witnessed the deterioration of civil libertiesthe expansion of the military presence in civil politics and the increasing influence of political dynasties. Both Laos and Vietnam remain under their own forms of Leninist dictatorship, while Singapore has long been under a one-party authoritarian regime in which the political opposition is de facto limited. Brunei remains an absolute monarchy with serious problems regarding the harshness of its judicial system. Cambodia has been a constitutional monarchy under Hun Sen’s personalist rule for nearly four decades.

There are only two countries in the region that have a relatively longer history of democratic electoral rule: Thailand and the Philippines.

Since 2010, Thailand and the Philippines – two of the region’s largest post-Cold War constitutional democracies – have shown a noticeable turn towards autocracy. Both countries are emerging and middle-income economies with a long-standing alliance with the United States. If Thailand and the Philippines are the only nominal democracies in Southeast Asia and US allies, how can change be stopped? regional towards autocracy?

After the fall of the Prime Minister’s government Thaksin Shinawatra, Thailand has been beset by military junta and political crises. The militaristic National Council for Peace and Order has been accused of widespread human rights abuses. Since the 2014 coup, China has become a key sponsor military defense and political support for the Thai state, despite Bangkok’s security commitments to Washington.

Thai elites have welcomed China’s patronage, which emerged in an effort to make up for the absence of US support, which has dried up as the country drifts toward militaristic autocracy. Beijing has capitalized on its increasingly active trade economic relations with Bangkok, forming what the Chinese State Council now calls “global strategic partnership of cooperation». Thailand has responded by placing itself squarely in China’s sphere of influence.

In the Philippines, the post-1986 constitutional order – the liberal constitutional democratic system that emerged after the fall of the brutal dictatorship of Ferdinand Marcos – drastically deteriorated when Rodrigo Duterte became president in 2016. The “drug war”, the persistent red taggingthe force close of the largest media conglomerate in the nation and the systematic harassment to the leaders of the political opposition show how the State has abandoned its commitment to human rights.

In the national elections of 2022, Ferdinand Marcos son and the daughter of the previous authoritarian president, Sara Duterte, registered a landslide victory unprecedented amid widespread misinformation, electoral irregularities, suppression of peaceful political dissent, and politically motivated killings.

USA has been a key support for the national political, economic and military elites of Thailand and the Philippines, especially during the years of the cold war and up to the war on terror. Although it is in China’s strategic interest to ensure that the political elites of two of America’s permanent allies are friendly to Beijing’s economic and geostrategic interests, that will most likely occur under a autocratic state that is protected from any form of dissent.

Although the US track record in the region far from consistent, China’s brazen encouragement of autocracy in Southeast Asia represents a fundamental threat not only to the further deterioration of democratic institutions, but also to the integrity of international law. Beijing’s demand for autocratic stability in Asian countries undermines the emergence of progressive social movements, the checks and balances between the various powers of the state, and the accountability of state actors who commit abuses.

If there is any hope of stopping the spread of autocracy in Southeast Asia, at least from the perspective of the senior foreign policy officials of the USA, this happens to provide political support and material resources to state and non-state actors who are committed to competitive electoral processes, democratic governance and human rights.

Among these actors are progressive civil society groups and independent journalism and media outlets that can counter widespread disinformation perpetrated by autocratic elites. We must also support military and state elites committed to re-establishing democratic civilian control and opposition politicians who have been consistent in defending the interests of those on the margins.