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The Peruvian anchovy is essential to the fishmeal and oil industry. But the arrival of the El Niño weather shock could have an impact on the market. Concerned about its resources, Peru has just suspended the opening of the first fishing season of the year.
First modification:
By Marie-Pierre Olphand
The first anchovy fishing season, which usually opens in April-May in northern Peru, may simply not take place this year. Successive exploratory fisheries have shown that there are too many juveniles, that is, young anchovies less than 12 cm in length. Therefore, the authorities decided last week that there would be no fishing until further notice, and perhaps even until the next season, which begins in the fall.
At the moment, the forecasts remain risky, since no one knows to what extent the anchovy cycle has been interrupted or what repercussions the El Niño phenomenon will have.
Lower production by 2023
The anchovy needs cold coastal waters to thrive. When the temperature is too high, they can only survive if they find shelter, otherwise they disappear. Too warm water also limits the upwelling of nutrients, such as zooplankton and small shrimp, and affects the Omega-3 concentration of the anchovy. From a simple drop in production to a massive mortality of its anchovy population, Peru has never been free of El Niño.
Without the first fishing season in 2023, it is already a certainty that the Peruvian production of anchovies will not reach the 2.8 million tons of last year. Almost all of these anchovies are transformed into oil rich in Omega-3 and into flour for fish farms and animal farms, a world sector that depends 20% on Peru.
“The end of the Eldorado of the Peruvian anchovy”
The IFFO (International Fishmeal and Fishoil Organization) is already forecasting a world production lower than last year and, therefore, higher prices. However, fishmeal stocks in China, the world’s biggest buyer, could limit tensions in the market, according to the organization, which represents fishmeal and fish oil producers and their business interests.
In the medium and long term, the industry must prepare for the “end of the Eldorado of the Peruvian anchovy”, warns Arnaud Bertrand, a researcher at the IRD (Institute for Development Research, for its acronym in French) who foresees a collapse of the population of anchovy off the coast of Peru under the pressure of climate change.
