Ukraine advances north of the flood to sneak into the Russian defensive line

The humanitarian efforts They are currently concentrated in Kherson and in the towns flooded after the flood of the dnieper river by the explosion of the Nova Kakhovka dam. Especially after this Thursday the Russian troops attacked the area with artillery while the rescue work was being carried out.

He military pushhowever, it seems to have moved a few kilometers further north, in the Zaporizhia Oblast. It is there where the Kremlin army assures that the Ukrainian forces have been “for three or four days trying to start a large-scale offensive,” according to the Russian representative of the occupied region, Vladimir Rogov, in statements to the TASS agency.

[Jersón, zona cero de la voladura de la presa: “Sólo conquistando Moscú pararemos a los rusos”]

Specifically, it would be Tokmak – a city in which Russia has been consolidating positions for months, accumulating supplies and which has an important railway network that connects various points on the front -, where it would have occurred “an unprecedented artillery attack” which, of course, would have been repelled.

To back up their proclamations, the Russian Defense Ministry has published a series of videos about an alleged Ukrainian assault with two Leopard 2 A4 main battle tanks (recently arrived on the battlefield) in the town. Although edited, these recordings show how at least one of these Western heavy tanks is hit by enemy artillery, according to intelligence from open sources.

But, apparently, that is not the only objective of the Ukrainian troops in Zaporizhia. According to the Kremlin authorities, they would also be charging with “maximum force” against Russian positions near earjova small town located barely five kilometers of the front that has become a strategic enclave for kyiv’s troops on the southeast flank of the front.

None of this information could not be confirmed, but the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also reports in its latest explosions and skirmishes update between both sides in western Zaporizhia. In the same vein, Valeriy Shershen, press spokesman for the Ukrainian defense forces from Tavriaassured the Washington Post that there was “a great increase in activity” in the areas of Novopavlivka and Orekhov. He did, however, avoid talking about a counteroffensive and qualified that “defense” operations were being carried out.

Counteroffensive, yes or no?

“The counteroffensive has not yet started,” Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov said on Wednesday. However, media such as the chain nbche Washington Post or the Financial Timesthey cite military sources that assure that this would have already started. In any case, that the reconquest of the occupied territories should start (if it has not already done so) in Zaporizhia it would not be surprising.

In fact, it was one of the most promising scenarios for launching a new large-scale attack. And it is that if the Ukrainian soldiers manage to break the enemy lines on the southeast flank from Tokmak and Orekhov, they could try to reach the city of Melitopol, on the coast of the Azov Sea. Thus, not only would they cut the occupied territory in two, but they could cut essential supply lines for the Moscow army and even reach the land bridge that connects Russia with the Crimean peninsula.

But that will not be an easy task. At the beginning of the year, the British Ministry of Defense reported that Russia had created three layers of defensive lines along 120 kilometers, a distance that covers the territory from the dnieper river to Melitopol.

These would be made up of a first line of forward fighting positions, and then two more elaborate, almost continuous zones of defenses separated by approximately between 10 and 20 kilometers. All this, to prevent the Ukrainian military from penetrating the front line with an even more ambitious objective: protect Crimea.

As already appreciated in the past counteroffensive, Volodimir Zelenski’s troops are not one to risk everything on a single card. For this reason, after the forced flooding in the Kherson region, which hinders any land advance, other fronts remain open.

[Rusia fortifica Melitopol: el objetivo más probable de la contraofensiva de Ucrania en primavera]

After losing Bakhmut a month ago, the soldiers Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive operations in that direction trying to surround the city on the flanks, according to the ISW. In fact, in the middle of a campaign of informative silence, the Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Hanna Malyarhas declared this Thursday that the army has gone from defensive to offensive operations and have between 200 meters and one kilometer in various areas.

Along these lines, Russian sources collected by the think tank American maintain that kyiv forces had “variable hits” southwest of Velyka Novosilka, also in Donetsk Oblast.