Goodbye Russian energy, hello African energy?

While trying to substitute Russian fuels, the European Union look for energy everywhere. To the East of Europe, this means that Germany signs gas agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar and that the functionaries of the European Commission urge Saudis to pump more oil in meetings with OPEC. To the norththis means further increasing gas imports of friendly Norway. To Westlargely means new imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States.

But what about Europe’s energy relationship with its neighbors to the south, the 54 nations of Africa?

Major new vendors

African oil and gas imports are not as crucial to Europe as those from Russia or Norway, but they are an important source, according to Eurostat data. In 2021 the EU imported 8% of its Petroleum of Libya7% of Nigeria and another 3% of Algeria. As the oil market is global, African production is relevant for the EU even though Europe does not import the oil directly. As for the natural gasthe figures were 12% from Algeria, 3% from Nigeria and 1% from Libya.

Africans and Europeans were already running oil and gas projects together before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. the french company Total is one of the main investors in the controversial –and harmful to the environment– East African oil pipeline, which will carry oil from Uganda through Tanzania to world markets. And just before Russia launched the attack on its neighbor on February 24, the energy ministers of Nigeria, Niger and Algeria signed an agreement to reactivate the enormous trans-saharan gas pipeline that will take African gas to the Mediterranean for export.

But the EU’s decision to phase out Russian energy – made more urgent in June with the adoption of the EU oil embargo and Russia’s move to reduce gas flows to Europe– has given new impetus to these plans. The European Comission is interested in importing gas from the unexploited reserves of Nigeria, Angola and Senegal. On June 15, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, signed a trilateral Memorandum of Understanding with Israel and Egypt with the aim of sending more Israeli gas through pipelines to Egyptian ports, where it can be liquefied and transported to Europe.

Individual European countries have also carried out their own energy diplomacy. Germany and Angola have reached an agreement to convert to the state company Sonangol in Germany’s first green hydrogen supplier. And on a visit to Senegal, the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that it plans to carry out “with intensity” gas and renewable energy projects with this West African country. Italy, another large importer of Russian gas, has also been active, signing agreements with the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt Y angola to increase LNG exports. Italy has also signed an agreement with the Algerian company sonatrach to increase the volume of gas imported through the transmediterranean gas pipeline connecting both countries.

Conflict beyond Ukraine

Although the conflict in the east is the reason for the European campaign to get more energy from the south, security problems and political disputes also threaten some exports of african hydrocarbons, and thus hamper efforts to fill the void left by the loss of Russian supply. Angola and Nigeria, the two main oil producers in Africa, they have not been able to fulfill their OPEC supply quotasin part due to vandalism, theft and corruption. In Libya, where European nations intervened militarily in 2011, a long civil conflict has come close to shutting down oil production in 2022; production is down more than 90% compared to 2021 levels. “Libya is currently unable to become an alternative to Russian oil for the European Union. Perhaps this will be achieved in five or seven years”, Libyan Oil Minister said, Mohammed Aoun.

“Although the conflict in the east is the reason for the European campaign to get more energy from the south, security problems and political disputes also threaten some African hydrocarbon exports”

Another complication is the intensification of the diplomatic dispute between Spain and Algeria for the territory of Western Sahara. Algeria supports the full independence of the territory, while Morocco considers it its own. When Spain sided with Morocco this spring, Algeria suspended its friendship treaty with Spain and later suspended payments to and from Spain in everything that was not gas. So far Algeria has continued to honor gas contracts, but flows through Morocco have stopped and disruption is feared. In recent months, the US has become the main supplier of natural gas to Spain.

The equity debate

The European boost to southern energy takes place within the framework of a tense debate about him future energy supply of African countries. Motivated by their desire to avoid further greenhouse gas emissions, European governments have been cutting public funding for fossil fuels abroad: France, Germany, Italy and the UK were among the signatories of a commitment to the COP26 to “end new direct government support” for fossil fuels and try to persuade the multilateral development banks to do the same; the European Investment Bank stopped lend to fossil fuel projects by the end of 2021. This stance has irritated some african leaderswho believe that European restrictions on fossil fuels could “prevent Africa’s attempt to climb out of poverty”, in words of the President of Uganda, Yoweri K. Museveni.

For European leaders, who take energy abundance for granted, it is clear that energy security considerations must take precedence over short-term climate commitments. Europe is building new LNG import terminals, drilling for gas in the North Sea in contradiction with past commitments, and subsidizing energy so no one has to turn off the lights. But for African political leaders – on a continent in the one that 600 million people are still living without electricity – it is difficult to understand why climate concerns should take a backseat in one place and not another. Oil and gas from Africa may account for less than a fifth of total EU imports, but that trade is vital for African economies: energy products make up 65% of total European imports from Africa, and more than half of Africa’s oil and gas producing countries depend on these exports for their More than 50% of its total export earnings.

“Fossil fuel trading is never smooth or painless. There are other conflicts interfering with supply, other fossil-driven dictators.”

There are reasons of weight for both Africans and Europeans to stop funding fossil fuels in Africa, beyond the fact that fossil fuels are causing a climate crisis mortal. For one thing, many ordinary Africans never see the benefits. Nigeria has spent billions upon billions exploiting its oil and gas reserves in recent decades, but nearly half the country still lives without access to electricity. Revenues from hydrocarbons have been lost for the corruption, while the waste of oil Shell Nigeria and other companies have destroyed the environment and livelihoods.

On the other hand, these investments carry the risk of displace renewable energy projects that could harness Africa’s abundant solar resources. Unlike what happens in Europe, some African communities have the opportunity to avoid fossil fuels and building assets that will soon be abandoned or producing goods that will end up being affected by the European carbon tax. The african solar energy investments would be more beneficial for both parties, so countries like Morocco and Algeria had enough electricity to power their economies and produce green hydrogen to sell to Europeans.

The EU’s experience in trying to replace Russian oil and gas with fuels from Africa shows that trade in fossil fuels is never smooth or painless. There are other conflicts interfering with supply, other fossil-driven dictators. (Indeed, even in a world running on renewables, there would be energy dependencies and concerns about environmental damage from extraction.) One hopes that by 2050, when the EU purports to produce net zero emissions and Africa has a quarter of the almost 10,000 million inhabitants of the world, both continents are cleaner and richer.

Article originally published in the Web of Internationale Politik Quarterly.