Scotland’s chief minister, Nicola Sturgeon, will set out a “road map” on Tuesday for a second independence referendum. In the 2014 referendum, 55% of Scottish voters opted to stay in the UK and, to the chagrin of Unionists, the Scottish Government plans to hold another next October. And it is that, since Brexit and with a scandal-plagued Prime Minister in Downing Street, many things have changed since the last vote.
“After all that has happened, Brexit, Covid, Boris Johnson, it is time to set out a different and better vision,” Scottish Chief Minister Nicola Sturgeon said in a June 14 speech in Edinburgh, outlining a “renewed case for independence”.
It’s no surprise that Sturgeon puts Brexit at the top of his list. Six years after the fateful referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union, Scotland is facing a hard Brexit that it did not support (62% of Scots voted, in vain, in favor of remaining in the bloc).
“Brexit has taken us out of the EU and the single market against our will, with massive damage to trade, living standards and public services,” Sturgeon said in his speech.
‘A much more complicated choice’
But while the bitter pill of an unwanted Brexit is a strong case for Scottish independence, it has also made things more complex.
If Scotland becomes independent and manages to rejoin the EU, it is now extremely difficult to see how it could avoid a hard and undesirable border with neighboring England, at least for goods. The ongoing dispute over the Northern Ireland Protocol highlights the apparent impossibility of avoiding customs controls in such a scenario.
As Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, puts it: “The current Scottish Government wants to maintain regulatory alignment with the EU single market. As we know, that means a border, somewhere or another.”
More generally, Brexit means Scots face “a bigger choice” in any future independence referendum, Curtice said. “Any referendum that takes place now will be a choice between Scotland as an independent country and within the European Union, or Scotland within the UK but outside the European Union,” she explained. Ultimately, “it’s a much more nuanced choice, it’s a much more complicated choice.”
Curtice went on to say, “Both sides have issues to address and arguments to build that are relevant to the current situation, unlike the debate we had almost eight years ago. Because it’s not the same option. It’s not, in the end, a debate anymore. about inside or outside, it’s an inside/out versus outside/in debate.
Lessons from the pandemic
The lessons of the Covid-19 pandemic have also been cut both ways when it comes to Scottish independence. On the one hand, Scotland benefited from the UK-wide furlough scheme for those unable to go to work during the lockdown and, later, from the UK-wide procurement scheme to buy Covid-19 vaccines.
But since the UK’s four devolved nations are responsible for their own health policies, Scotland was able to diverge from England when it comes to restrictions, with the exception of travel. Sturgeon gave regular televised briefings during the pandemic, much to the frustration of his political opponents. However, for supporters of independence, this was a preview of how things would be if Scotland were in charge of her own affairs.
Compared to Downing Street, Sturgeon generally took a more cautious approach to restrictions and was praised for its general handling of the health crisis. In contrast, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson took a relaxed attitude towards the virus from the start (his government initially wanted to pursue a herd immunity strategy) and then bowed to significant pressure within his Conservative Party to lift restrictions. soon as possible. The UK as a whole ended up with the highest death toll in Europe in terms of deaths reported during the first wave of the pandemic.
The hangover from ‘partygate’
As for Johnson himself, he appears to be living on borrowed time following the ‘partygate’ scandal, which saw him become the first sitting prime minister to be sanctioned for breaking the law when he was fined for breaching restrictions in the pandemic.
His refusal to quit for the holidays during the lockdown in and around 10 Downing Street leaves him increasingly vulnerable. The embattled prime minister survived a no-confidence vote on June 6, but last week his party lost two by-elections, including one in a previously secure Conservative seat.
Johnson, who has never been popular in Scotland, has an 83% rate of dissatisfaction with his performance, according to a recent Ipsos survey. Most Scots did not vote for the current Conservative government in Westminster (Scotland only has six Conservative MPs), which is pursuing an increasingly right-wing agenda. The contrast is stark with the Scottish National Party (SNP), a center-left party that rules Scotland with the support of the Scottish Greens. As Sturgeon summed it up in his June 14 speech: “We have a Prime Minister with no democratic authority in Scotland and no moral authority anywhere in the UK.”
Scotland ‘split down the middle’
Despite the fallout from Brexit, Covid-19 and Johnson’s record, voters remain evenly split on the issue of Scottish independence, with some recent polls putting “No” narrowly in the lead. “The country is basically split down the middle and has been since 2019,” said Curtice, who is also a polling expert.
When asked why support for independence isn’t higher at this stage, Curtice cited three possible reasons: “First, we haven’t had the debate that I just told you about. Two, a lot of the push for ‘Yes’ in the second half of 2020, it seems to have dissipated in early 2021, which seemed to be mainly driven by perceptions of how Brexit was being handled, and the third answer is that it’s going to be much harder to change public opinion this time around because a lot of people made up their minds in 2014. So while there was a big change in attitude during the 2014 campaign, it’s probably going to be harder to change attitudes now.”
Crisis of the cost of living
Regarding the economy, the war in Ukraine has caused a rise in inflation that shows no signs of abating. UK inflation hit a 40-year high at 9.1% last month. In the Ipsos survey mentioned above, 30% of respondents cited the rising cost of living as the most important issue currently facing Scotland. Opposition parties in Scotland say this is the worst possible time to plan for another referendum, for which the Edinburgh Government has allocated £20m (€23.2m). Meanwhile, with Scotland pledging to reach net-zero emissions by 2045, uncertainty hangs over any new oil projects.
Finally, what about the record of the current Scottish Government itself? Sturgeon has been in charge since 2014; last month, she became Scotland’s longest-serving chief minister. Despite implementing some innovative policies, such as offering free access to health products, the SNP-led decentralized government faces criticism for its performance in office, especially in education and long hospital waiting lists after the pandemic.
But according to Curtice, people in Scotland are separating the government’s record from the issue of independence. “At least for the moment, people’s perceptions of how well the SNP has been running Scotland are proving to be irrelevant, because people are voting on the issue of independence,” she said.
“Who knows who would run an independent Scotland?” he asked, adding: “The fundamental question the SNP will face if independence is achieved is: What is the point in the SNP? Don’t assume that the SNP is going to survive in its current form.”
‘Boris is not a permanent fixture’
For now, all eyes will be on Sturgeon’s speech to the Scottish Parliament on Tuesday, in which he promised to reveal a “legal” path to independence. It is speculated that to circumvent Johnson’s continued refusal to give an official green light for a new vote, the chief minister could announce an “advisory” or “advisory” referendum. That would be a risky move, as unionists have promised to boycott such a plebiscite.
But this may not be the end of the story. In fact, Curtice insisted on the importance of looking ahead to the next general election.
“Boris is not a permanent fixture. And this current UK government has to face the electorate at the end of 2024. Right now, there is a pretty high probability that we will end up with a hung parliament. If there is a hung parliament Conservatives are stuck. Frankly, they’ve burned their boats with everyone, including the DUP (Democratic Unionist Party).”
Curtice continued: “So the question is: what influence will the SNP have in a hung parliament? They will probably be the third largest party. If the SNP is the swing party and Labor can only form a minority administration with the acquiescence of the SNP, so basically the price of SNP is, frankly, I can tell now, it’s going to be kind of a referendum.”
It remains to be seen whether the Scots will vote for independence.
*Article adapted from its original in English.
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