Yoon’s ‘global pivot’ after the elections

The result of the parliamentary elections in South Korea seems undeniable. The opposition Democratic Party (PD) won a convincing victory and, together with its progressive allies, will have a commanding majority of 192 seats in the 300-seat National Assembly. The former presidential candidate of the PD and current leader of the party, Lee Jae-myung, is consolidating himself, for now, as the probable presidential standard-bearer when the next elections are held in three years.

President Yoon Suk-yeol now faces a reinvigorated opposition eager to challenge him on all fronts. The conservative People Power Party (PPP) is fractured and likely to enter a succession battle that could leave Yoon increasingly isolated. within your own party.

What remains uncertain is whether Yoon’s ability to reshape South Korea’s foreign and security policy – ​​the hallmark of his government to date – can survive. The consensus among foreign observers is that, given the broad powers of the executive in South Korea’s political system and widespread public support for the overall objectives of Yoon’s policies, there will be no significant change in South Korean foreign policy.

The opposition is willing to focus more on domestic issues, from investigations into irregularities by the first lady and senior officials to addressing powerful economic issues, believing that these will put conservatives on the defensive and could even open the door to dismissal.

Yoon, for his part, has indicated that he sees no reason to change course. In his first speech after the election, the president’s message was that his policy orientation was correct for the country, but that he was failing to communicate or produce visible results, observes Benjamin Engel, a research professor at the Seoul National University.

Yoon’s stubborn determination to stay the course is not new, but the election result shows that he cannot overcome the powerful force of public opinion in South Korea’s highly polarized environment. Although support for the alliance with the United States it’s still overwhelmingthere is a strong current of nationalism that often takes on anti-American overtones.

The PD and its close allies in the newly elected National Assembly now include outspoken advocates of the withdrawal of US troops and even an end to the security alliance. These views tend to coincide with pro-North Korean ones, often expressed in the belief that the United States is the main obstacle to the return to a commitment with Pyongyang. North Korea policy will undoubtedly be a continuing point of contention between the opposition and the Yoon government.

The opposition also reflects broader criticism of what is characterized as an anti-China policy adopted under pressure from the United States to the detriment of South Korea’s own economic and security interests. The decline in South Korea’s exports to China and tensions over US pressure to limit technology trade with Beijing have already been used as a point of attack against Yoon.

«Yoon is doing everything he can to maintain the momentum in the relationship with Japan, as is Kishida. But both are weakened, with support rates stagnant at 20 or 30 points.

“China was South Korea’s main export market, but now Seoul is the one that imports mainly from China,” Lee declared. during the National Assembly campaign. “Why do we care what happens in the Taiwan Strait? Shouldn’t we take care of ourselves?”

The Yoon administration is already resistant to calls for confrontation with China, especially in the economic sphere. Seoul will reportedly host the resumption of the China-Japan-South Korea trilateral summit in May 2024.

But Yoon’s call for South Korea to become a “global pivot state” is based on a strengthened alliance with the United States, elevated ties with Japan and the closer trilateral security cooperation. All this leads South Korea to a strategy of containment of China de facto.

The biggest vulnerability in Yoon’s foreign policy is boosting relations with Japan and attempting to resolve historic war tensions through a unilateral move to offer compensatory payments to former Korean forced laborers. Without Japan’s agreement to allow payments from Japanese companies, which have been sued in South Korean courts, Yoon proposed using an existing South Korean fund.

But it has turned out to be, as some predicted, a fragile solution: the fund lacks enough money and numerous cases continue to move through the courts. The surveys of opinion show an important difference of perception between Japanese and South Koreans about the state of relations, motivated largely by what South Koreans consider Japan’s inability to reflect on its past and promote reconciliation. This skepticism is shared by both progressives and conservatives.

American and Japanese officials tend to brush aside these concerns, eager to claim the fruits of security cooperation and investment in Yoon’s personal leadership. But the election results now raise serious doubts about the sustainability of this policy, argues Wi Sung-lac, a former senior official at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and newly elected member of the National Assembly.

“I have been expressing my concern about this situation to my Japanese and American friends for a long time,” Ambassador Wi, a close advisor to DP leader Lee, told this editor in an email exchange. He maintained that “the Yoon administration should communicate more with the opposition to garner public support, Japan should respond more flexibly, and Washington should be aware of this situation and offer necessary advice to Tokyo and Seoul. However, many did not pay enough attention because they believed that the matter was already resolved.”

In Wi’s opinion, shared by many in his party and by public opinion, the “enormous defeat” suffered by the conservatives in power and by Yoon reopens the door to other positions regarding Korean foreign policy. At the top of the list of unpopular policies is the Korea-Japan story. South Korean media They are focused now in Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida sending offerings to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine.

Yoon is doing his best to keep the momentum in the relationship with Japan, as is Kishida. But both are weakened, with support ratings stuck in the 20s or 30s. If the relationship between Japan and South Korea falls into conflict, it will undermine not only the alliance with the United States, but also the ability to maintain a hard line with North Korea.

Above all, this raises the uncertainty of a possible return to power of Donald Trump, a known supporter of the withdrawal of US forces from South Korea. If for some reason it looks like Trump is going to win,” Engel says, “that’s when Yoon will start to change the focus on him.”

Article translated from English from the website East Asia Forum (EAF).

Activity subsidized by the Ministry of Foreign and Global Affairs.