The Russian “tsar” highlighted the agreement on the construction of Power of Siberia 2 by 2030. Beijing does not mention it in the final statement. China is willing to buy more Russian gas at a discount, but wants to keep its traditional suppliers. The Chinese are already negotiating with the Turkmens for a second gas pipeline.
Beijing () – Listening to the Kremlin’s emphasis on energy relations with China, the agreement on the construction of a second Siberian gas pipeline to supply Russian gas to the “unlimited partner” seems to be the only concrete result of the three-day trip from Xi Jinping to Moscow, which ended this morning. In Beijing, however, they might think otherwise.
Unsurprisingly, there was no serious breakthrough in Russia’s war against Ukraine, and Vladimir Putin redefined Xi’s “peace plan” as a “basis for resolving the conflict.” Instead, the Russian president affirmed that both parties had reached an agreement on the Power of Siberia 2 project, a new gas pipeline originally built to supply Europe, which will transport gas extracted from the Russian Yamal field to Chinese territory through Mongolia. .
When fully operational, Power of Siberia 2 is expected to have a capacity of 50 billion cubic meters (bcm) per year. According to Putin’s statements, the new gas pipeline will be operational in 2030: counting the 38 bcm that its twin gas pipeline inaugurated in 2019 can theoretically supply, and the 10 bcm that would come from a field on the island of Sakhalin through a planned gas pipeline. by 2026, the Russian “czar” expects to sell 98 bcm a year to China early in the next decade.
The problem for Putin is not only that this amount will not cover the almost 200 bcm a year that Moscow is about to lose from Europe as a result of the invasion of Ukraine: the truth is that China does not need all that Russian gas.
The Chinese import between 150 and 160 bcm of gas per year to cover their needs. More than 50% is pumped from Turkmenistan, not from Russia. Last year Turkmen transported 43.2 bcm to China: Power of Siberia 1 reached 16.5 bcm. In addition, Kazakh supplies and those of liquefied natural gas from the United States, Qatar and Australia must be counted.
In the final statement published by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, there is no explicit reference to the Power of Siberia 2 project. In more vague terms, there is talk of an agreement to strengthen energy and resource exchanges. Later, the Russians corrected their position: as he points out ReutersIn another statement, the Kremlin stressed that the details of the new pipeline are still to be worked out.
In all probability, Beijing is willing to increase the purchase of Russian gas at favorable prices, while keeping more suppliers so as not to be dependent on Moscow (or any other). It is not for nothing that the Chinese are negotiating a second gas pipeline to obtain another 25 bcm of Turkmen gas in 30 years. The Central Asia–China Gas Pipeline D is scheduled to pass through Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
