Women’s representation is on the decline in US midterm elections.

The outlook for women’s representation in the US Congress is not encouraging. The figures suggest that not only will they be able to stop being a minority, but they could even retrace the steps taken. Everything indicates that they could lose seats in the country’s legislature.

The setback would take place in the mid-term elections on November 8, in which the Americans will elect the new composition of the House of Representatives -435 seats- and a third of the Senate -35 seats-. According to the Center for Women and American Politics (CAWP) there are 28% female candidates for the House of Representatives, one point less than in the 2020 elections; and 21.7% of women running for the Senate, compared to 23.9% two years ago.

The figures show a decrease that contrasts with the increase given in the last two mid-term elections. In 2018, the record for seats held by women was broken for the first time. The same thing happened in 2020.

Thus, everything seems to indicate that the position of women in the United States Legislature will face a setback next week. One that occurs within the framework of a country that ranks 72nd in terms of political representation in the ranking of Parlinewhich handles data from active parliaments worldwide.

As CAWP director Kelly Dittmar pointed out, representation is important to political life, in the sense that “seeing women in leadership positions can inspire others and has symbolic importance.” And she adds: “Although each woman is different, collectively they bring different perspectives from her life experience and can bring different issues to the table.”

Republicans vs. Democrats: the numbers of women in Congress by party

Currently, 24 of the 100 seats in the US Senate are held by women, while in the House of Representatives there are 123 women for 435 seats.

Of all the women in Congress, 74% are part of the Democratic Party, while 26% are part of the Republican Party.

Also, according to Samantha Pettey, Associate Professor of Political Science at the Massachusetts College of Liberal ArtsWhile both caucuses have record numbers of female legislators, Republicans doubled the number of women they had in Congress from 2019 to 2021.

For these elections the figures are different. The Democrats opted for a greater number of women for different public offices. Specifically, there are 180 Democratic candidates and 86 Republicans seeking a seat.

What can we expect from the elections in terms of representation in Congress?

Analysts do not predict an encouraging change in terms of women’s representation in Congress. According to Pettey, “Democratic and Republican women are expected to win races at similar rates, with Democrats expected to win about 53 percent of their races and Republican women expected to win about 49 percent.”

In addition, in this struggle for the Legislative Power there are 34 contests of women against women.

In this sense, Petty assures that specifically in the House of Representatives there could be an increase in representation for women, but by a small margin. Very different from other advances of the past years.

“Given the forecasting models discussed here, and considering the eight women vs. women races, I think you could see 129 women winning seats versus the (current) 123, or close to around 30 per cent of the total delegation from the Camera”, assures the political scientist.

Instead, the portal ‘FiveThirtyEight’, It anticipates that many of the congresswomen who are most vulnerable to losing their seats are women. And she predicts: “It is very possible that the number of women in Congress will decrease after the November elections.”

At the same time, they point out that in the entire Congress the number of women could decrease. “Under the Deluxe forecast, the number of women in Congress would drop to 135. That would mean a substantial reduction in the number of women serving.”

What would explain a possible decline?

One of the reasons also shown by the portal is that taking into account the favorable results of 2018 and 2020, for this year it has not been a priority to promote women’s candidacies for Congress. “The success of the previous two cycles may have made leaders of both parties feel there is less need to focus on getting more women elected,” says ‘FiveThirtyEight’.

For Dittmar, the phenomenon responds to a mistaken perception. “When you talk about the pink wave or the ‘Year of the Woman,’ it makes people think that things are already done, that women have taken charge.”

The director of the ‘Center for American Women and Politics’ (CAWP) also points out other reasons. One of them is the electoral system itself created “by and for men” and loaded with stereotypes about the masculine image of leadership.

At the same time, there are structural factors, ranging from inequity in access to fundraising to sexism and even violence to which women who choose to launch themselves into such positions are exposed.

On the other hand, a statistical reason has to do with the fact that many women are playing for a seat in which they have a very difficult time finding a victory. As the Deluxe Forecast indicates, “48 percent of all female House candidates and 30 percent of all female Senate candidates are running for seats where they have a 50 in 100 or better chance of winning.”

Beyond the numbers: the demands that continue to be neglected

The Congress established in 2021 was cataloged as the most diverse in the history of the United States. But despite this, many of the demands of the women of that country continue to be in the background.

The same thing happens in that the election of more women does not necessarily mean that they comply with some of the most notorious requests from sectors, for example, feminists.

One such issue is abortion, after a year in which the United States Supreme Court struck down the Roe v. Wade ruling, which allowed voluntary termination of pregnancy procedures.

Kaitlin Makuski, political coordinator for Susan B. Anthony’s List, a group that works to elect anti-abortion candidates, told ‘FiveThirtyEight’ that it’s been “phenomenal to have so many vocal women advocates in the Republican Party” who also defend banning abortions. abortion procedures.

Even though feminist movements have gained ground in the United States and have demanded that the Supreme Court ruling be reversed, not all female candidates for Congress have women’s reproductive health on their agenda.

Pettey shows that while some candidates list abortion among their “issues” or “policies,” others only “submit small press releases about the votes they supported.” Just over 50% of the applicants mention the topic in their programmatic agenda.

A small leap for African American and Latina women

Despite the fact that the prospects are not very encouraging for women in these mid-term elections, there is a small advance in the representation of Latin American and Afro-American women.

Among the nominations for the House of Representatives are 36 Latina or Hispanic women, an all-time high.

Furthermore, as shown ‘Political’“a record number of women of color, 263, ran for the House,” of which 92 are Republicans and 171 Democrats, unprecedented figures for both parties.

In parallel, 22 African-American women will seek a seat in the Senate, another record in the North American nation.

Today, despite the fact that African-American women represent more than 7.5% of the US population, they only have a little more than 4% representation in Congress. In fact, there is none that holds a seat in the Senate.

Advancing in the representation of women belonging to minorities in the United States is of special interest in a country that, as shown by ‘NBC’the majority of African-American women feel underrepresented.

With EFE and local media