With the end of the parliamentary majority for Draghi, Italy is doomed to early elections

Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi won the vote of confidence in the Senate but lost the confidence of his coalition partners for national unity, including the leftist Five Star Movement, led by the ex-premier Giuseppe Conte; and the right-wing and far-right parties Forza Italia, led by Silvio Berlusconi and La Liga, led by Matteo Salvini, respectively.

In Wednesday’s session in the Upper House, of the 320 seats, Draghi received the favor of 95 senators and the direct rejection of 38, although the vast majority of senatorial legislators refused to vote.

Despite overcoming the process, the abandonment of the three political formations that added up to give him the majority to govern made the hitherto prime minister quickly leave the session at the Madama Palace, seat of the Senate, and take refuge in his office at the Palace Chigi, the building that houses the Italian Council of Ministers.

Enrico Letta, secretary general of the Democratic Party, who did support the president, complained about “this day of madness in which Parliament decided to turn against Italy.”

“We have done everything possible to avoid it and support the Draghi government. Italians will show at the polls that they are wiser than their representatives,” Letta wrote on his Twitter account.

Mario Draghi submitted to a confidence vote with the aim of reinforcing his coalition of national unity, until now made up of almost all the political formations in Parliament, except for the far-right Brothers of Italy party, led by Giorgia Meloni.

Last week the government crisis was blown up when the Five Star Movement (M5S) decided to distance itself from the prime minister after a long period of comings and goings due to a decree that provided aid against inflation, which the leftists of the M5S saw insufficient, as well as their refusal to continue financing military assistance to Ukraine from the Executive and Legislative branches in the framework of its war with Russia.

The prime minister, who had already mentioned that his government could not continue without the support of the M5S, submitted his resignation on July 14 to President Sergio Mattarella, but he rejected it and asked him to appear again before the Upper House. this Wednesday, in a session in which the parliamentary majority has been definitively lost.

Berlusconi and Salvini, at first, conditioned their support for Draghi if he definitively renounced the votes of the left-wing Five Stars, an extreme that was a red line for the premiere, who aspired to retain the majority to finish the legislature, which runs until March 2023.

Draghi, practically condemned to formalize his resignation

On Wednesday morning, the prime minister still harbored some hope: “The only way, if we want to continue together, is to completely rebuild this pact, with courage, altruism and credibility. The Italians are asking for it,” he said at the beginning of the meeting. session.

However, their illusions soon faded, when the fracture of the ruling alliance became evident. At his side, the Democratic Party, the progressive formation of Free and Equal (LeU), the center party Italia Viva, led by Matteo Renzi, and other very minority formations. In front, Conte and Berlusconi called on their senators not to participate in the vote. Salvini did not even speak.

Against this background, Mario Draghi’s exits happen, a priori, only to formalize his resignation before Mattarella.

It is likely that he will do so this Thursday, when the parliamentary process in Congress is concluded, where the same result will be reaped as this Wednesday in the Senate. Then, it will be up to the prime minister to repeat last Thursday’s tour to the Quirinal Palace, the presidential residence, to address the matter with the head of state.

If Draghi then formally presents his resignation, it is up to Sergio Mattarella to address what the near future of the Alpine country will be: either he asks the bureaucrat to look for a new coalition, or he entrusts the task of interim prime minister to another technical position, or else call early elections, which seems the most likely scenario given the correlation of forces that governs the Legislative.

Although it is not the desirable option for unions, employers, civil associations and even the Catholic Church, who have bet in recent days that the premiere did not give up trying to continue leading the Executive; it is the preferred scenario of the far-right party led by Giorgia Meloni, so far alone on the opposition bench.

An extreme right that is expected to emerge victorious from this new political crisis

According to the polls ahead of the next elections, initially scheduled for next year, the conservative caucus will win the elections. At this point, Meloni’s Brothers of Italy could be the most benefited party, since it leads the voting intention.

“I have already prepared a team of ministers. I have my own ideas about how this nation should be governed, what should be done, what its industrial strategy should be,” Meloni said recently.

Paolo Gentiloni, European Commissioner for Economy, said on his Twitter account that the “irresponsible” measure against Draghi could cause a “perfect storm” and warned that “difficult months” are ahead for Italy.

The new Italian political crisis arrives at a particularly complex moment: the Alpine nation, the third largest economy in the Eurozone, is notably indebted and the costs of borrowing have only increased while the European Central Bank (a body that Draghi himself was in charge) tightens monetary policy.

An unexpected and express debacle

The breakdown of the parliamentary majority in Italy was not on the agenda until recently. On June 29, within the framework of the NATO summit in Madrid, Spain, Mario Draghi had to leave the act of the Alliance members at the Prado Museum to return to Rome.

An image taken by the EFE Agency was very striking, showing how the Italian Prime Minister is sitting on one of the museum’s benches talking on the phone, with a serious face, while his colleagues chatted during the visit to the works of art. which houses the famous Madrid museum.

From then until now, the worsening of the political crisis and the loss of confidence on the part of key coalition partners have made Mario Draghi now a man highly valued by the financial markets for being a guarantor of economic stability in the country, have the hours numbered at the command of the Executive, if Mattarella does not prevent it again.

“A black page for Italy. Politics has failed in the face of an emergency and the response has been not to assume responsibility. The effects of this tragic election will go down in history,” said Luigi Di Maio, still Foreign Minister.

The national unity coalition lasted 17 months, a milestone in a largely politically fragmented Italy. But that already seems past: if there is no plot twist, the President of the Republic could dissolve Parliament in the next few hours or days and lead Italy to early elections this fall.

With EFE, Reuters and local media