With a taste of triumph for Labor?

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is known to be more pragmatic than his predecessors. These days, he holds his breath for how definitive the by-elections will be, partial elections, in three districts of England.

Among them, that of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, who was forced to resign before his imminent sanction as a deputy in the British Parliament for deliberately lying about the ‘Partygate’ scandal.

Johnson, in his own style, left citing political persecution, but with his resignation he moved, more than any other resignation, Sunak’s fragile game of dominoes.

According to ‘The Times’ “if the party loses all three seats, it would be the worst result for any ruling political party since 1968”.

And it is that, far from being a routine election, the results will say a lot about the trends of the population in the face of the expected national elections that would have to be called in 2024.

“These are places with higher-than-average populations, lower-than-average rates of filing for benefits, and higher-than-average home prices. If the Conservatives lose these, they will really start to worry about what awaits them in the next election,” Sophie Stowers, a researcher at Researcher at UK in a Changing Europe, told France 24.

These will be, by the way, an opportunity to measure the popularity of the main opposition party that is heading, according to experts and polls, to form a government under Keir Starmer, after 13 years of conservative governments.

fear grows tory

The conservative deputies foresee the defeat in the chairs that have traditionally been toriesalthough they rummage for optimism in the final stage of the race marked by several defeats to the Government.

Among which are the legal battle to send illegal immigrants to Rwanda who arrive in small boats through the English Channel, almost daily and is one of Sunak’s five priorities.

In addition to the crisis in the cost of living, which is far from giving the British a respite, as well as the long wait for treatment in the NHS public health system.

Nuclear Affairs Minister Andrew Bowie told ‘Times Radio’ that “of course we may lose all three, but we may also win all three. I am an optimist, I am a Scottish Conservative and a fan of Scottish football. I have to be optimistic.”

The region in dispute, in which the Conservatives have the most supporters, is Selby and Ainsty with 60 percent of the total votes, with a majority of 20,137, according to the BBC.

This chair bore the name of the then deputy Nigel Adams, an ally of Johnson, who resigned from it after not having received an honor from the State that the former premier himself had promised him.

While former MP David Warburton had to vacate his chair in Somerset and Frome, preceded by a suspension from the match, over allegations of sexual harassment and cocaine use. Finally, she only accepted the last offense.

“This election is also a reminder to the public of the ‘sleaze’ scandal facing the Conservatives. They derive from resignations after investigations of irregularities. It is, to a large extent, a reminder that Sunak has not yet followed through on his promise to restore the integrity of the government,” Stowers says.

The By choicea figure as unique as the British political system, states that if an MP resigns or dies an election must be called for that district.

The importance of Boris Johnson’s chair in Uxbridge and South Ruislip

These two districts, on the outskirts of London, are the ones that generate the most expectation.

On the one hand, the Conservative Party eagerly campaigns to keep them, while Labor takes it for granted that they will retake this stronghold from Johnson.

All of Labor’s efforts are focused on winning over the residents of these areas to take over this chair, which would have a different impact: staying with Johnson’s area, a politician as controversial as he is popular.

It is known to be so so that Labor candidates for other London towns have had to suspend their own campaigns to join the goal of winning Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

The big obstacle facing Labor is in their own ranks. London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s plan to extend the Ultra Low Emissions Zone (ULEZ) in the capital from August 29 is well unpopular on the outskirts of the city.

If it comes to fruition, all cars that circulate in any area of ​​London and that do not meet the required level of emissions will have to pay £12.50 daily, more than $16.

However, analyst Stowers believes that defeat tory would be, contradictorily, a help to Rishi Sunak.

“As it will be a signal to Johnson’s supporters that the former PM is not popular with voters, and perhaps they should stop tearing the party apart trying to defend him.”

The effect of the results on the Sunak government is unpredictable.

“They will also make Sunak’s position more difficult, relative to his MPs, but it’s hard to see the party going through a third leadership contest in just over a year, so he’s probably safe for now.” explained Simon Usherwood, a professor of politics at The Open University.

“By-elections attract additional media attention and voters tend to punish parties if their MP has been ousted in disgrace or has upset them by calling an election unnecessarily,” recalls seasoned political commentator Adam Boulton.

Rishi Sunak, as pragmatic as he is a lover of numbers, knows better than anyone that a negative result this week would bring more difficulties to the complex equation in which he finds himself.