Starting this Monday, candidates for the Venezuelan opposition primaries will be able to register. This electoral appointment, scheduled for October 22, was raised by civil society as a mechanism to present a single opposition candidate against Maduro in 2024. Political scientist Carlos Romero details the challenges for the opposition and the unknowns about the obstacles that can give him the ruling party.
The main opposition alliance will organize primaries to try to avoid the divisions with which it has arrived at each electoral date up to now. The commission in charge of organizing this process, scheduled for October 22, is made up of members of civil society. There are at least three challenges ahead, says political scientist Carlos Romero.
“First, whether or not to count on the help and cooperation of the National Electoral Council,” says the professor at the Central University of Venezuela, who underlines a paradoxical situation in this regard. “On the one hand, the only one that has the capacity to guarantee an electoral process of this nature is the National Electoral Council. But, on the other hand, for the majority of Venezuelans, at least for those who have been consulted in recent polls , the primary electoral process of the opposition must go without the National Electoral Council”.
The second challenge is related to voting abroad. Specifically, what will the participation be: “Venezuelans abroad are going to vote, they will be able to vote, they will not vote, they will not be able to vote. This is a problem,” she clarifies.
A third point is relations with the government. In particular, “if the government will guarantee that the opposition presidential candidate, the one who results from the primary process, will not be disqualified or persecuted, that his rights will not be taken away.”
For the moment, the Venezuelan government has not adopted any position on this opposition device, which does not derive from the institutions. “The government, in a certain way, has been watching the bulls from the sidelines, it has not taken a clear position on the issue,” says Romero in this regard. In other words, it is not clear whether or not you agree that the opposition candidate is the product of a primary election.
There are still some issues to be resolved within the very heart of the Venezuelan opposition. For example, “whether or not the government has influence on some political parties and opposition sectors within the primary electoral process, that is, specifically, if the government is supporting any of the pre-candidates under the table,” says Romero.
Already, several presidential hopefuls refuse to participate. According to Carlos Romero, the biggest challenge is to find a consensus in this political and social context, starting with the figure that would embody the opposition.
“At this moment, according to the surveys, there is no candidate or pre-candidate that guarantees the possibility of winning the elections in 2024. On the other hand, the Venezuelan electoral experience in the last 20 years has shown that there have always been obstacles to a clean electoral process.Therefore, there is a great unknown about how ordinary mortals will react to this electoral process, since the majority of citizens, according to surveys, are pending other issues, among others, how to survive in the face of economic situation”.
The list of final candidates will be presented in July.
