Will Democrats win after Biden withdraws?

The President’s decision Joe Biden to withdraw from the Democratic presidential nomination for the November election has transformed American politics. It caps what has been a historic July for the United States, marked by momentous Supreme Court decisions and the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump on the eve of the Republican Party convention.

Biden’s decision — called for by many Democratic Party officials and donors and supported by many voters — was the right one. After a debate that was widely seen as Biden’s debacle, his age had left him virtually unable to convince Americans that he deserved another four years (and prevented him from convincing them that Trump does not).

It is too early to write about Biden’s legacy, if only because there are still about six months left in his presidency. But by stepping down, he has done much to remove the potential criticism that by staying in the race he was paving the way for a successor who shares little of his commitment to American democracy and the country’s role in the world. Indeed, an eventual Trump victory over Biden in the November election (as polls predicted) would have largely overshadowed Biden’s achievements as president.

The Democratic nominee is likely to be Vice President Kamala Harris. Biden’s endorsement of her candidacy will help her, but it is not decisive, because Biden only has the authority to release party delegates pledged to him, not to require them to support someone else.

So anything can happen at the Democratic convention in Chicago in August, and the remaining four weeks could be very decisive in that regard. Harris could advance to the nomination unopposed, or one or more challengers could emerge. If she becomes the nominee, the second scenario may even favor her, as the process will further temper her political skills, give her the image of a winner, and allow her to emerge from the shadows of an unpopular president.

A potential internal contest will also put the Democratic Party in the spotlight, at a time when it needs to reintroduce itself to the electorate. This is essential, since Trump and Sen. J. D. Vance (his choice for running mate) promise to be formidable contenders. And even if Harris runs against them and loses, polls suggest she would fare better than Biden, thereby improving Democrats’ chances of winning a majority in the House of Representatives (maintaining control of the Senate seems unattainable) and thus preventing Republicans from having full control of the federal government.

Although in the polls Trump is a bit better Harris, however, may get a boost next month from her rise to the spotlight. Harris’s judicial experience — first as a prosecutor and then as California’s attorney general — will serve her well on the campaign trail. She is well positioned to take on the extreme anti-abortion stance of this Supreme Court, as well as Vance. And she will benefit from the fact that there is no woman or minority on the Republican ticket.

But there is one unavoidable obstacle, which we might call the “Hubert Humphrey dilemma.” In 1968, Humphrey (vice president at the time) won the Democratic Party nomination when the incumbent president, Lyndon Johnson, opted not to run for reelection. Biden’s words at the letter where he announced he was withdrawing from the race brought echoes of many of those used by Johnson 56 years ago (the main difference being that Biden published his statement on X while Johnson appeared on national television).

The dilemma is this: how to appear loyal and get credit for what has been popular in a presidency without being hurt by policies that were unpopular. In 1968, Humphrey’s candidacy was complicated by the Vietnam War, as he found it difficult to distance himself from a policy with which he was associated and from a boss who was unwilling to tolerate disloyalty.

There is no single dominant issue in today’s public debate, but there is still a need to differentiate between the Democratic candidate and Biden: at a time when voters are looking for change, the ruling party is at a disadvantage. If anyone doubts this, just look at the latest election results in South Africa, India, the United Kingdom and France.

Which means that whoever wins the Democratic nomination — Harris or someone else — would do well to embrace policies like the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS and Science Act, combating climate change, defending democracy, access to abortion and birth control, and military aid to Ukraine. But they would also do well to distance themselves from a Middle East policy that many Americans view as too pro-Israel, and from border and crime policies that many view as too lax.

If Harris ends up being the Democratic choice, her choice for running mate will be important. Several Midwestern states are likely to be decisive in the November election, and there are plenty of independent voters to woo. We can expect the roster of potential running mates to include governors such as Gretchen Whitmer (Michigan), Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania), Andy Beshear (Kentucky) and Roy Cooper (North Carolina), as well as several members of Biden’s Cabinet.

Perhaps the only certainty left is that after Biden’s stunning announcement, everything is much more uncertain. But one thing is clear: the outcome of the presidential election will be momentous for the United States and the rest of the world. This is not usually the case, as the similarities between the candidates tend to outweigh their differences. But this time is different. The differences are profound, so it is no exaggeration to say how much will be at stake when Americans go to the polls in November.

Translation: Esteban Flamini