Why Trump is still the favorite for the Republican nomination, despite his impeachment (Analysis)

() — Donald Trump is the first former president to be impeached. Given the movement of a New York grand jury and the other high-profile criminal cases involving Trump, you might think his political career is in jeopardy.

But many Republican officials seem hesitant to attack the former president (instead they attacked Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who brought the charges), and the election betting odds they still favor Trump for the Republican nomination in 2024.

So what happens? There is an obviously unprecedented situation, and the political reality may change after the impeachment.

Even so, Republicans and gamblers alike are likely to react to three facts:

1. Trump’s polling lead in the 2024 Republican primary has increased over the past month as an impeachment loomed.
2. Most Republicans think that all the different investigations into Trump are politically motivated.
3. Most Trump supporters aren’t overly concerned about his eligibility among general election voters.

recent surveys of foxnewsthe Monmouth University and the Quinnipiac University show how Trump’s Republican primary prospects have improved. In all, Trump led by double digits in March, with a lead over his closest rival – Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, an undeclared candidate for 2024 – growing by 12 points since February.

According to the Quinnipiac poll, which was released last week, just 18% of registered Republican voters thought the allegations against Trump in the alleged secret money scheme in New York were very or somewhat serious. Most (53%) believed that they were not serious at all.

The fact that the allegation is now an actual fact (not just potential) might change some opinions, though perhaps not as many as you might think.

The majority of Republicans (and, indeed, the majority of all voters) in the same Quinnipiac poll did not believe that the man bringing those charges (Bragg) was an impartial observer. Nearly all Republicans (93%) thought his case was primarily politically motivated. The majority of voters (63%) thought the same.

In fact, when it comes to any impeachment, Republicans appear to have taken a pro-Trump view. A Marist College survey published last week asked respondents which opinion of all the different Trump investigations came closest to their own: that they were fair or that they were a “witch hunt.”

While 55% of all voters said they were fair, only 18% of Republicans and 14% of 2020 Trump voters believed they were. Most Republicans (80%) and 2020 Trump voters (84%) told Marist the investigations were a “witch hunt.”

The poll results are consistent with what we know about how Republicans feel about the underlying information at the center of the different investigations.

Beyond the case of New York, the surveys also show that most Republicans believe that Trump did not commit any wrongdoing in his efforts to overturn the 2020 election result. Similarly, polls indicate that most Republicans believe that Trump was fair in those efforts, and the most keep believing on the falsehood that Joe Biden only won the election due to voter fraud.

Of course, the fact that Republicans believe these cases are politically motivated is only part of what is at stake here.

The other component is how Republicans view Trump in the context of the broader general electorate. Possibly, the Republicans could think that Trump is innocent, at the same time that they believe that his legal problems could hurt him in the general election. After all, most voters think the investigations are fair.

But polls show that for Republican voters, agreement on issues is more important than eligibility when it comes to making their primary choices. In our most recent /SSRS poll, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents indicated, with a majority of 59% to 41%, that defeating Biden was a higher priority than reaching an agreement on the issues.

Trump supporters were no different. 61% said the issuance deal exceeds eligibility, while 39% of them disagreed.

This is a stark difference from what occurred in the 2020 Democratic primary. By March 2020, 73% of Biden supporters were telling pollsters that eligibility was more important than issuing a deal.

Put another way, Biden’s case for Democratic voters was based on eligibility in a way that Trump’s case for Republicans is not.

This may be why Trump continues to lead, despite the fact that most Republicans already believe that their best chance to beat Biden lies with other potential candidates. According to one Marist’s survey As of February, 54% of Republicans thought someone other than Trump would give the party the best chance to win back the White House in 2024.

Of course, Republican voters may not necessarily be wrong in their calculations this year. Even with all the potential eligibility issues, Trump has led Biden in more general election polls in the early part of the 2024 cycle than he has in the entire 2020 cycle. The same poll shows DeSantis tends to do a few points better. against Biden than Trump, which is in line with what most Republicans think.

The big question going forward is what happens now that Trump has been impeached? Will the Republicans stick with him? Will electability matter more if Trump’s poll numbers weaken considerably against Biden?

We don’t know the answers, but what we can say is that the current political environment does not hurt Trump in the Republican primary.