Why did the ‘red wave’ fail in the US midterm elections?

Gone are the predictions of a ‘red tide’. And the midterm elections have been, on the contrary, something similar to a blue lifeline for US President Joe Biden.

A resounding defeat of the Democratic party was expected both in the House of Representatives, which is completely renewed, and in the Senate, where a little more than a third of the seats were decided in the vote, although there are still no final results.

A map of the United States painted red and a majority Republican Congress were predicted. But, for now, everything indicates that it was not. This Wednesday the optimism of the Republican Party had vanished. While the Democratic caucus received an unexpected reprieve.

The president’s party came with several points against. The elections, which take place in the middle of the presidential term, are usually an electoral thermometer and also a way of evaluating the current Administration. And Biden arrived apparently weakened. The president had rampant disapproval rates and many began to distrust his figure as leader.

Furthermore, it seemed that rising inflation was about to knock Biden out to the end of his term. “Only three times since the first congressional elections after World War II has inflation been as high as it is today heading into a national vote,” reported an article in The New York Times.

For Lawrence Gumbiner, international consultant and former diplomat, it was also the central issue: “everyone thought that the economy was going to dominate the concern of independents and new voters, but it was not. There was a lot of concern among young people, among women who saw the loss of abortion rights and by the state of democracy,” she told France 24.

Next to inflation, the history of the ‘midterms’ disadvantaged the Democrats. “The party that celebrates winning the White House is often mourning a midterm election loss two years later,” noted AP.

Even with statistics and history as an obstacle and according to ‘The New York Times’, “Biden obtained the best mid-term result of any president in 20 years.”

The close race for the Senate

‘Photo finish’ in the Senate. More than a day and a half after the polls opened for the mid-term elections in the first states to start the contest, it remains unknown which party will retain the majority in the Upper House.

The defined seats are extremely divided. So far, the Democrats have managed to win 48 of the seats in the Senate, surpassed only by one by the Republicans who have already won 49.

But the winner is yet to be defined. The race for key states like Arizona or Nevada is still open. The results of both are expected to be known even within several days since they have a high participation by mail that takes time to be counted.

In Arizona, Democratic candidate Mark Kelly has a slim lead over his Republican challenger Blake Masters. A dispute that further north, in Nevada, has another first and second place. Republican Adam Laxalt is also slightly ahead of Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto. But nothing is defined. As ‘The Guardian’ shows, “hundreds of thousands of ballots remain unaccounted for in those races.”

The crucial runoff in the state of Georgia

Many eyes were attentive to the southeast of the American territory. Georgia was emerging as one of the states that would define which force would be the majority in the Senate. So it was. Neither of the two candidates managed to reach the 50% of the votes required by the peculiar electoral law of that state to win a seat in the Senate.

Democratic pastor Raphael Warnock got 49.4% of the vote and former football player and Republican candidate Herschel Walker got 48.5% of the vote.

It is a close race that will only end on December 6 when a second round takes place. Depending on the results in Arizona and Nevada, Georgia could even define who would prevail in a possible tie between the two games.

Pennsylvania, the great Democratic victory

Perhaps one of the greatest joys for the Democratic Party was the results in Pennsylvania. And it is that the caucus of President Biden managed to dye the state blue that had been colored red with the election of Republican Pat Toomey in past elections. But this time, Democrat John Fetterman defeated Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz.

Pennsylvania had been the scene of an unusual scene before the elections. Two days before the polls opened, three White House occupants had moved into the state to campaign for their candidates.

Former President Barack Obama joined the current president in a rally seeking to convince voters at the last minute. An act that was the last of a fierce Biden campaign in the state in which he was born.

For his part, Trump had also accompanied his Republican candidate at an event where he delivered a long speech full of optimism. However, his endorsement was not enough for Oz to win that decisive seat.

The House of Representatives is mostly painted red

The balance of the House of Representatives seems to tip towards the Republican side. This party has already managed to keep 207 of the seats compared to the 183 that are controlled by the Democrats.

Although many counties remain to be defined, the conservative caucus could take away the short majority that the Democratic Party held until now.

To be the dominant force, Republicans must win 218 of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives.

The favorable preliminary results for the Republicans are explained by triumphs such as that of Mike Lawler against Sean Patrick Maloney in the Hudson Valley county, in New York. A victory that ends decades of Democratic control.

At the same time, as AP shows, Maloney became the first Democratic House campaign manager to be defeated since Rep. James Corman of California in 1980.

A scenario like this could be the great Republican electoral trophy and would have an impact on the rest of Joe Biden’s term.

“This is going to affect Joe Biden a lot, it’s going to slow down a lot of the effort in the House of Representatives on the national budget. We’re going to see a stagnation in the Joe Biden program in the next two years,” says Gumbiner.

Trump, the loser of the day?

“We are going to have a great night,” said former President Donald Trump after casting his vote in the state of Florida. The Republican had been confident throughout the political campaign, however, many media and analysts say that he is one of the losers of the race.

“Many of his carefully selected candidates fell in defeat, casting new doubts on his political future,” said ‘The Guardian’.

According to Gumbiner, “it was definitely a bad night for Donald Trump, he thought that as leader of the Republican party he was going to benefit and was going to take him to the 2024 elections with a lot of support and that did not happen.”

A setback for the tycoon, who in parallel to campaigning for his candidates for governorship and for Congress, also took the opportunity to raise expectations to run for re-election. Trump assured that he would make an “important announcement” after the elections.

The portal ‘Politico’, however, ensures that his strength towards the White House may be weakened after these results. “Trump remains the dominant figure in the Republican Party, and he will be the favorite to win the Republican nomination for President if, as expected, he runs again. But Trump’s place in the party is much weaker after Tuesday. The truth is that if it weren’t for the interventions of the former president, the night could have been much better for the Republican Party.”

At the same time, the results could lead to further cracks within the party itself.

With multiple of his key allies defeated, Trump could face another hurdle on his way to a new presidential term. One with a proper name: Ron DeSantis. The Republican won a second term in Florida with a huge advantage and for many he could be the new leading face of the Republican Party in the 2024 elections. Although the politician has not yet expressed his willingness to participate in the race.

DeSantis consolidates Florida as a Republican stronghold

The governorships gave favorable results for women on both sides. Both Republicans and Democrats snatched states in that position. In addition, both the LGTBIQ+ community and African-American people will have unprecedented representation in some states.

Some victories that shared headlines with the DeSantis. This one gained enormous relevance because the Republican Party seems to have gained ground with more Democratic support in the past. “Florida is getting redder and redder,” the AP reported.

Before, the state was one of the most disputed by both sides and was essential for the victory of former President Obama.

Undoubtedly, the figure of DeSantis has played an important role in this change in the political spectrum. Both he and the Republican Party, AP notes, have managed to carve out a space “with Hispanic voters, as well as the influx of new residents, including many retirees, attracted by the lack of an income tax and its sunny weather.”

The numbers of the elections give DeSantis a push to win supporters that will facilitate a path to the Presidency. With 20 percentage points he was re-elected, a statistic that exceeds the three percentage points that gave Trump the leadership of the state in 2020.

The relative calm that Joe Biden breathes

“Today is a great day for democracy,” Biden said in the afternoon on Wednesday. The president seemed satisfied with the results.

“For a president who was told to expect a devastating midterm defeat, the results were a huge relief,” says ‘The New York Times’. The outlet also quotes Paul Begala, one of President Bill Clinton’s top advisers, who states: “How many times in 2020 did they rule it out? Or did they rule out his chances of pushing through the legislation he ultimately passed? “Politics is an uncertain business. But one constant remains: Joe Biden will be underestimated.”

However, not all are joys for Biden. A majority in the House of Representatives could stall a good part of the president’s initiatives and the possibility that the Democrats are also a minority in the Senate would pose even more complex challenges.

The portal ‘Politico’ ensures “it is difficult to argue that the Democrats had a superior performance on Tuesday because of Biden and not in spite of him.”

Against this background, Biden hinted in his speech this Wednesday that he will announce if he stands for re-election. A candidacy that already generates doubts due to its low popularity, due to his age (Biden turns 80 this month) and also due to the struggle of the most leftist forces of the party that are looking for another type of leader.

With AP and local media