Who is the favorite to win the presidential elections in Argentina? This is what the polls say

( Spanish) — With a last-minute plot twist, on Saturday, June 24, the lists for the 2023 presidential elections in Argentina closed. What do the polls say?

Peronism came as a surprise less than 24 hours before the registration deadline, when it announced the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, as a candidate.

The day before, after an alleged leak in the media that indicated the head of the Interior portfolio as a candidate for the ruling party, the latter, a man close to Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, presented his own ad: “I am Wado de Pedro and I want to be president , the president of all Argentine families”. It could not be. But it is necessary to say that Massa will have to face an internal one with Juan Grabois, a social leader who is a member of the same party, from whom a significant result is not expected.

According to the political scientist Simón Etcheverry, faced with a candidate more from the center, such as the Minister of Economy, “Grabois offers an alternative to the hard-core Kirchner voter within the space of Unión por la Patria.”

On the opposite sidewalk, Mauricio Macri’s space, Together for Change, reaffirmed its two bishops: Patricia Bullrich and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta. And, as was well known, La Libertad Avanza played its only card, Javier Milei, the founding leader. This is how the main forces of the political arc were formed.

One of the keys to take into account when analyzing the electoral panorama this year in Argentina is that the two main forces in the last presidential elections of 2019 were “snuck in” by the extreme right-wing party and, as he said the vice president in a television interview, the election became a dispute between third parties.

This is corroborated by the measurements of different consultancies. The latest data from Opina Argentina, corresponding to the month of June before the lists closed, places Peronism with a percentage of 26 points, while Macri’s party and La Libertad Avanza are tied at 24. This inclination, which places the three spaces in close percentages, is repeated in the numbers of the Tendencies consultancy: Peronism and JxC with 23 points, followed by the libertarian party with 20.

NdR: The methodology used for each survey is detailed at the end of this article.

With Cristina Kirchner and Macri out of the game, the scene is reconfigured

On repeated occasions, and even causing confusion among her followers, the main leader of Peronism announced that she would not be a “candidate for anything” in 2023 and she complied. With the consummated list closure, Cristina Fernández is not on any ballot. Mauricio Macri also did the same. “Convinced that the political space that we started must be enlarged (…) I want to ratify the decision that I will not be a candidate in the next election,” he announced in a video that he posted on his social networks. So? It’s the end of an era?

The renowned political analyst, Jorge Asís, referred to this matter: “Happily they are not candidates, because the presence of the two in the centrality of politics is a guarantee of permanent and continuous belligerence. If the tips in Argentina become Rodríguez Larreta and Sergio Massa, the country changes in a week, ”he said during an interview with . “Why do I say this? Because the main problem that Argentina has is political, if politics is ordered perfectly, the economy is accommodated”, concluded the writer.

But there is still a long way to go to define how the leaders will be ordered in the coming months and who will be the winners of the electoral contest.

The image data of the main candidates

Let’s go a little deeper into the data handled by three public opinion consultants in terms of the image of the main candidates.

Horacio Rodriguez Larreta

• Opina Argentina Consultant: Positive image 43%, negative image 44%

• Trends Consultant: Positive image 37%, negative image 47%

• Consultant Giacobbe: Positive image 13%, negative image 58%

Average calculated by : Positive image 31%, negative image 50%

Patricia Bullrich

• Opina Argentina Consultant: Positive image 31%, negative image 57%

• Trends Consultant: Positive image 39%, negative image 45%

• Consultant Giacobbe: Positive image 42%, negative image 39%

Average calculated by : Positive image 37%, negative image 47%

Sergio Massa

• Opina Argentina Consultant: Positive image 38%, negative image 55%

• Trends Consultant: Positive image 29%, negative image 59%

• Consultant Giacobbe: Positive image 15%, negative image 64%

Average calculated by : Positive image 27%, negative image 59%

javier milei

• Opina Argentina Consultant: Positive image 44%, negative image 45%

• Trends Consultant: Positive image 39%, negative image 46%

• Consultant Giacobbe: Positive image 34%, negative image 45%

Average calculated by : Positive image 39%, negative image 45%

“The big unknown we have among the pollsters is Milei,” the director of Opina Argentina, Facundo Nejamkis, told , “if it is closer to 15 or closer to 30.” According to the analyst, this significantly changes the scenario. “Closer to 30 is a three-way tie, an uncertain ballot,” however, “at 15 she can shoot a winning result in the first round.”

Survey methodology used in this article.

Tendencies carried out its survey based on 2,506 cases nationwide, in a population over 16 years of age.

Opina Argentina carried out its survey based on 1,402 cases nationwide, in a population over 18 years of age.

Giacobbe carried out his survey based on 2,500 cases from a sample adjusted by quotas for gender, age, educational level, income earned and regions at the national level.