Who is the favorite candidate to win the second round in the Uruguayan presidential elections? This is what the polls say before the electoral ban

( Spanish) – Uruguay is in the final stretch for an uncertain final runoff this Sunday the 24th between the center-left Yamandú Orsi and the center-right Alvaro Delgado, with a slight favoritism in the polls for Orsi, from the Frente Amplio.

According to the latest polls before the pre-election ban, Orsi would win in all cases the second electoral round against Delgado, of the National Party, with a difference of between 4.2 and less than one percentage point of the votes. In all cases, this difference is within the margin of statistical error, which is why the same polling companies have warned that the “scenario is highly competitive” and the outcome is uncertain.

According to the latest Opción survey released three days before the elections, Orsi and his running mate, Carolina Cosse, have 49.7% of voting intentions, while Delgado and Valeria Ripoll have 45.5%. 4.8% would vote blank or null. The consultant clarifies that the difference between both formulas “is included within the margin of error.” “The stage is open for many reasons,” said Rafael Porzecanski, director of the consulting firm, when presenting the results on the Telenoche news program on Channel 4. This survey was carried out between November 12 and 20.

According to Equipos, the difference between Orsi and Delgado is barely minor: 48% would vote for Orsi, 46.2% for Delgado; meanwhile, 5.8% would vote blank or null. As the margin of error is +/- 2.5%, the pollster affirms that the difference is not conclusive and that the scenario “is open” with “a difference in favor of Orsi.” “We can speak of a technical tie between both candidates,” says Equipos regarding their survey carried out between November 8 and 20.

The other survey revealed this Thursday, that of Factum, is the one that presents the tightest scenario. “It has been thirty years since we saw such a competitive level,” said the director of the firm, Eduardo Bottinelli, on the VTV Noticias news program. According to this poll, Orsi’s Frente Amplio would obtain 47.1% of the votes, while Delgado’s National Party would receive 46.6%. 6.3% of the electorate would vote blank or null. “You cannot point out a clear advantage of one over the other” and “no result would be surprising,” Bottinelli added.

We would probably have to wait until late on Sunday night, November 24, to find out who will be the next president of Uruguay.