The expectations were not too high, but finally it is confirmed that the war will not take a breather for the celebration of Orthodox Easter, which will be held next Sunday, April 16.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov stressed on Monday that “no one has proposed” the truce. “Until now, there has been no initiative on this matter, but our Holy Week has just started. There have been no such initiatives so far,” she reiterated.
He Pope Francisco last week he requested a two-week truce, which would have covered both Catholic and Orthodox Holy Week. This is how the president of the World Union of Russian Old Believers (a medieval split from the Russian Orthodox Church), Leonid Sevastianov, transferred it to the Kremlin. The Russian government then refused to respond to the request. not coming directly from the Vatican.
The Supreme Pontiff has already made his request for a “paschal truce” in his homily on Palm Sunday and he again alluded to peace in Ukraine in his speech on Easter Sunday. “Open the hearts of the entire international community to work for the end of this war and all the conflicts that stain the world with blood, starting with Syria, which is still waiting for peace,” Bergoglio said.
A good truce for Russia?
The most widespread strategic analyzes affirm that Russia would be the greatest beneficiary of the achievement of a truce. The Institute for the Study of War (IWS, for its acronym in English) suggested in a report this Sunday that the “Kremlin could call for a ceasefire for Orthodox Easter” understanding that “such a pause would disproportionately benefit Russian troops and would allow them to secure what they had gained in Bakhmut and prepare defenses for counteroffensive of Ukraine in the spring of 2023″.
“Putin could call for a ceasefire to mark Ukraine as unwilling and unwilling to take the necessary steps towards negotiations,” the IWS insisted.
In a similar vein, three weeks ago the White House rejected repeated calls for a ceasefire in Ukraine. The national security spokesman, John Kirby, pointed out in mid-March that this would mean “the ratification of the Russian conquest”allowing Moscow to settle in the already conquered Ukrainian territories.
fear of russia
So, if the analyzes point to the Russian advantage in the event of a truce, why has Vladimir Putin not only not put the issue on the table, but has the Kremlin turned its back on that possibility? A clue can be found in the statements made a few days ago by Russia’s main ally on the continent.
Alexander Lukashenko, president of Belarus, suggested on March 31 that a hypothetical temporary cessation of combat should take place without the contestants regrouping their troops. “If the West again tries to take advantage of the lull by planning to strengthen its positions, then Russia must harness the full capabilities of its military and defense industry to prevent the conflict from escalating, including phosphorous munitions, depleted uranium and enriched uranium”.
In this way, Lukashenko recalled the truce that took place in January and pointed out the fear of the Russian side of the reorganization of the Ukrainian forces which, in the current context, could be oriented towards the expected spring counteroffensive.
But this is just one of the factors why Russia might not benefit from the ceasefire. The conflict is at a point where Bakhmut seems poised to fall under Moscow’s control, with inertia in favor of the Russian troops. The Russian leader in the Donetsk region, Denis Pushilin, declared Monday in official media that “more than 75% of the city” is already under the command of the Kremlin.
On the other hand, to the reorganization of forces we must add the incorporation into the Ukrainian army of armored cars and fighters that Western countries are providing in recent weeks. A truce would not only allow the arrival of new military assets, but would give troops more time to familiarize themselves with this technology and incorporate new soldiers who are being trained abroad, such as in Spain.
Finally, the US intelligence documents that have been leaked in recent days also play an important role. The images have been known globally since April, but they had been circulating on some social networks for a month. The leaked maps and papers show the positions of the Russian and Ukrainian forces as of March 1, but also some of the strategies for the coming weeks. One might think that the Kremlin was preparing to deal with them, but when they became public, Ukraine has modified its plans.
The ‘truce’ of January
On January 5, 2023, Vladimir Putin ordered a 36-hour ceasefire on the occasion of Orthodox Christmas. The president then alleged that it was a measure in response to the request for a truce by Patriarch Kirillthe head of the Russian Orthodox Church.
This situation has been alluded to by Dmitry Peskov, who has affirmed that already then he found himself “with the indisposition of kyiv to do the same”.
In fact, Russia and Ukraine accused each other of not respecting the ceasefire then. Moscow kept up the artillery fire on the war front while arguing that it was limited to returning Ukrainian fire.
The truce proposals have not been very successful in the more than 13 months that the conflict has lasted. They were not carried out either when Pope Francis requested it for Christian Christmas, or for Orthodox Easter in 2022. Although, on the contrary, US intelligence did point out that the invasion of Ukraine could be delayed due to the Olympic truce for the Winter Olympic Games that concluded on February 4, 2022.
