() — The new US Congress will not take office until January and control of the House of Representatives is yet to be determined, but the Republicans appear to be on their way to recapture that arm of the legislative branch and the race for who will be the next president has already begun.
House Republican Party leader Kevin McCarthy has officially declared his candidacy for president, but is already facing obstacles from pro-Trump hardliners in the House Freedom caucus, who are threatening to withhold their support while they hope to obtain concessions.
On the Democrat side, Nancy Pelosi, the current Speaker of the House of Representatives, has not yet made it clear what her next decision will be. Speculation has intensified in Washington about her political future and whether she will run again as the Democratic leadership candidate in the House of Representatives or instead decide to stand aside while a new generation of would-be leaders waits in the bench.
Moment of the internal elections of the leadership of the Republican Party and the vote of the president
The vote to choose the next president of the House of Representatives will take place in January, at the beginning of the new Congress. But House Republicans will hold their internal leadership elections to choose their nominee for president this week.
Republicans are scheduled to hold a candidate forum on Monday night, followed by leadership elections on Tuesday, November 15, according to a copy of the show shared with .
Elections are held behind closed doors and are conducted by secret ballot. In GOP internal leadership elections, McCarthy only needs a simple majority to win his party’s nomination for the office, but McCarthy might not get the 218 votes, the magic number needed to win the president’s deck in January.
During the presidential vote, McCarthy will have a major hurdle to overcome. The full House holds a vote to elect the president, and to win, a candidate needs to obtain a majority of all members, which is 218 votes if no member skips the vote or votes “present.”
When will the Democrats’ election be?
House Democrats will hold their internal leadership elections later, the week after Thanksgiving.
House Democratic leadership elections are scheduled for Wednesday, November 30. Voting will take place behind closed doors by secret ballot through an application.
To be elected to any Democratic leadership position, a candidate needs to win a majority among those present and voting. If more than two candidates are nominated and neither wins a majority, the candidate with the fewest votes after the first round of voting will be eliminated and a second round will proceed. This process continues until one candidate wins a majority.
Whoever is elected to the highest leadership position in the Democratic caucus of the House of Representatives will be their party’s candidate for president. But if Republicans have a majority, that candidate is expected to fall short of the full House vote in the President’s election in January and would become the House minority leader.
The first election, on November 30, will be for the next chairman of the House Democratic caucus, and whoever is elected to that role will administer the remainder of the leadership elections.
Who to follow in the GOP leadership elections
McCarthy has been making calls for support and has received an endorsement from former President Donald Trump. But even if he becomes his party’s candidate for president, as expected, he could still face a difficult road to secure the gavel.
Members of the pro-Trump House Freedom Caucus are threatening not to support McCarthy’s bid for House speaker and have begun to expose their list of demands, jeopardizing the California Republican’s path to 218 votes if the party is finally done with a slim majority. Assembly members are emboldened by the likelihood of a narrow GOP majority in the House, which would make the margins for McCarthy’s vote narrow.
McCarthy and his team are confident that he will eventually get the votes to be Speaker of the House. And two possible contenders, Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise, the current House Party leader, have endorsed his run for president.
But if enough Freedom Caucus members withdraw their support, it could jeopardize his bid for president or force him to make deals to weaken the role, something he has long resisted.
reported Sunday that Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona, a former Freedom Caucus chair, is considering mounting a far-reaching challenge to McCarthy, according to GOP sources familiar with the matter. McCarthy’s team has prepared for this possibility.
If a challenger emerges, it would be more of a protest candidate than a serious one. But the House Freedom Caucus hopes to show McCarthy during the GOP leadership race that he doesn’t have the votes to be president, hoping to force him to the negotiating table.
Republican careers other than party leader
Apart from the party’s presidential race, the disappointing results of the Republicans in the midterm elections have created obstacles for other leadership races.
The race for the GOP leader’s job in the House of Representatives, a seat that will only open if Republicans win a majority, was already competitive, though Rep. Tom Emmer, who chairs the Republican Party’s campaign arm, was seen as Republican Party in the House of Representatives, had the upper hand, as they were likely to be rewarded if they had a strong night.
Now, Republicans say it could be harder for Emmer to win.
Emmer told reporters Tuesday that he still plans to run and that he doesn’t know if a smaller majority affects his candidacy. But his pitch to members is similar to McCarthy’s, saying, “we’ve delivered.”
Meanwhile, Rep. Jim Banks of Indiana, a Trump ally and the head of the conservative Republican Study Committee, has also officially declared his candidacy for the party leader’s job. And Congressman Drew Ferguson of Georgia, the current deputy leader, is also running for the job, arguing that his experience on the party leadership team will be even more valuable in a slim majority, where the job of head tallyer It will be crucial to govern.
In the spotlight: Nancy Pelosi
What happens in the Democratic leadership race hinges on the key question of what Pelosi decides to do.
‘s Dana Bash asked Pelosi on “State of the Union” Sunday if she would make a decision on her run for leadership before the party’s leadership election.
“Of course. Well, you know I’m not asking anyone, people are campaigning, and that’s a beautiful thing,” the California Democrat told Bash. “And I’m not asking anyone for anything. My members are asking me to consider doing it. But then again, we’re going through the election.”
If Pelosi decides to run again for the House Democratic leadership position, she will make it clear that she is not yet ready to relinquish her role at the top of the House Democratic caucus.
Pelosi, a leading figure in Democratic politics, enjoys broad support among her members and is considered an effective leader within her party.
But if she runs for leadership again, that move is likely to surprise, and even frustrate, many in Washington, including members of her own party, who have been anticipating that she could step aside for a new generation of leaders to take over. the reins.
If Pelosi does not run for the top leadership job, it would set the stage for a major shake-up in the House Democratic leadership and mark the end of an era for Washington. The move would kick off a fight over his successor that could expose divisions within the party as other prominent party members seek to move up the leadership ladder.
Pelosi’s future freezes much of the Democratic race
Until Pelosi makes her announcement, much of the rest of the field is expected to remain essentially immobile.
Currently, Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer is the second House Democrat, in the House Majority Leader role, and South Carolina Rep. Jim Clyburn plays the party leader role. Massachusetts Rep. Katherine Clark plays the role of deputy speaker and New York Rep. Hakeem Jeffries the House Democratic caucus chair.
As potential candidates for the upper echelons of the House Democratic leadership wait to see what Pelosi does before making a public move, some Democrats aspiring to other party leadership positions have already announced their candidacy.
Democratic Rep. Joe Neguse of Colorado, who is currently co-chairman of the Democratic Communications and Politics Committee, announced his candidacy for the caucus chair to replace Jeffries, whose term is limited.
The race to lead the party’s campaign arm, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairmanship, is beginning to take shape after the incumbent chairman, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney of New York, lost his re-election bid.
Democratic Rep. Tony Cárdenas of California announced his candidacy for the job on Friday, but other candidates are also being considered, including Reps. Ami Bera and Sara Jacobs of California.
— Daniella Diaz contributed to this reporting.
