What we know about the leak of Pentagon documents and its impact

The information in dozens of slides has published potential vulnerabilities in Ukraine’s air defense capabilities and exposed private assessments by allies on a variety of intelligence matters.

This is why questions are being raised about whether the leak of confidential Pentagon documents will erode the trust of allies sharing information with the United States or affect the Ukrainian military’s plans to intensify its fighting against Russia this spring.

In general, the leaked material represents a “very serious risk to national security,” said a senior spokesman for the headquarters of the US Department of Defense

Here’s a look at the contents of the documents, what is known about how the leak may have happened, and its potential impact.

What are the exposed documents?

Classified information coming from the US Defense Department ranges from briefing slides describing Ukrainian military positions to assessments of international support for kyiv and other sensitive topics.

Among them, reports addressing under what circumstances Russian President Vladimir Putin might use nuclear weapons.

At the moment, there is no clear answer on how many documents were leaked. The US news agency AP remarks that it has seen approximately 50 writings. Some estimates put the total number in the hundreds.

How would the information have been leaked?

No one knows for sure, not even the head of the Pentagon.

“They were somewhere on the web, where exactly, and who had access at the time, we don’t know. We just don’t know (…) We will continue to investigate and review each rock until we find the source of this and its extent,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said during a press conference on Tuesday, April 11.

The leak may have started on a site called Discord.

It is a popular social networking platform among people who play online games. The Discord website hosts real-time voice, video, and text chats for groups and describes itself as a place “where you can belong to a school club, a gaming group, or a global arts community.”

In one of those forums, originally created to discuss a variety of topics, members discussed the war in Ukraine.

According to a member of the chat, an unidentified participant shared documents that he claimed were classified. First, he wrote about it on his own and then, a few months ago, he uploaded images of folded papers.

The person who claimed to be a member of the forum told AP that another individual, identified online only as “Lucca,” shared the documents in a different Discord chat. From there, they appear to have continued to spread until they were picked up by the media.

Many details of that story have yet to be verified, and senior US officials publicly acknowledge that they are still trying to find answers.

What has been revealed?

The leaks have highlighted how closely the United States monitors how its allies interact with Russia and China. Officials in several countries have denied or rejected the allegations in the leaked records.

The AP reported that US intelligence agencies picked up claims by Russian agents that they were building a closer relationship with the United Arab Emirates, the oil-rich Middle Eastern nation that is home to major US military installations.

But that country rejected the accusations, describing them as “categorically false”.

Last Monday, April 10, ‘The Washington Post’ reported that the Egyptian president, Abdelfatah al Sisi, would have ordered his government officials to secretly prepare the production of up to 40,000 rockets for Russia, in the midst of the war he launched against Ukraine.

A spokesman for the Egyptian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that his country maintains the policy of “non-participation in this crisis and is committed to maintaining the same distance with both sides” of the conflict.

Other leaks concern allegations that South Korean leaders were hesitant to send artillery shells to Ukraine and that Israel’s Mossad spy service opposed Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s proposed judiciary reform.

Funded at $90 billion a year, US intelligence agencies have broad powers to intercept electronic communications, execute spies, and monitor with satellites. The results of those powers are rarely known publicly.

America’s response

The Pentagon has begun an internal investigation to assess the impact of the leak on national security.

The investigation is led by Milancy D. Harris, assistant secretary of defense for Intelligence and Security, a defense official said in a statement.

The inquiry team includes representatives from the offices of legislative affairs, public affairs, politics, legal counsel and joint staff, the official said.

The Defense Department also moved quickly to reduce the number of people who have access to briefings, another official said. Both spoke on condition of anonymity as they are not authorized to disclose sensitive matters.

In addition, Pentagon staff are closely monitoring where “leaked slides are published and amplified,” said Chris Meagher, assistant secretary of defense for public affairs.

Separately, the Justice Department has opened a criminal investigation into how the slides were obtained and leaked. CIA Director William Burns called the leak “deeply unfortunate.”

“It is something that the US government takes very seriously (…) The Pentagon and the Justice Department have now launched a fairly intense investigation to get to the bottom of this,” he said during a meeting at Rice University.

What is the impact of the leak?

Senior military commanders have contacted allies to address the consequences. That includes “high-level calls to assure you of our commitment to safeguarding intelligence and fidelity to our security associations. Those conversations began over the weekend and are continuing,” Meagher stated.

US officials are likely to face more questions when they travel to Germany next week for a contact group meeting, where representatives from more than 50 countries meet to coordinate arms and support for Ukraine.

However, the leak of the documents is not expected to affect that meeting or the allies’ willingness to continue providing military assistance to Kiev, a senior defense official was quoted as saying by AP, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“I think many of the allies will probably be more curious as to why it happened,” said Chris Skaluba, director of the Atlantic Council’s transatlantic security initiative.

Given the high-level security clearance required to access the information, the leak raises questions about who “would have that much access to publish it,” and whether the intent was to undermine support for Ukraine, Skaluba noted.

Austin has reached out to his South Korean counterpart, Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup, to discuss the leaked documents, several of which are particularly sensitive to Seoul as they describe US surveillance of its ally and detail the South Korea’s reservations about ammunition supplies to Ukraine.

The two defense leaders agreed that a “considerable number” of the leaked reports were fabricated, Kim Tae-hyo, deputy director of national security, told reporters.

The official stressed that the alliance between the two countries would not be affected by the leak and that the South Korean government would seek to further strengthen cooperation with Washington.

Additionally, both Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken reached out to their counterparts in Ukraine. Austin suggested the leaks would not have much impact on plans to support the Russian-baked nation in the spring.

Ukraine’s strategy “will not be driven by a specific plan. They have a big plan to start with and only President Zelensky and his government really know all the details of that plan,” Austin said.

Other leaked sensitive topics are the shortage of air defense ammunition in Ukraine.

But that lack itself is known, and it’s one of the reasons the US military leadership has been pressing the Western allies to supply whatever systems they can, like the Iris- the T-systems compromised by Germany and the US-made Hawk air defense systems provided by Spain.

“Advertising an apparent shortage of anti-aircraft missiles can comfort Russia. But if you encourage Ukraine’s allies to speed up the delivery of missiles and other air defense capabilities, kyiv will appreciate it.

“What is most unknown is the degree to which these leaks influence US political support for Ukraine,” said Ben Barry, a senior fellow for land warfare at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

with PA