What to expect this year in the trend of Central American migration to the US?

Nicaraguan immigrant Oscar Reyes made it to the southern border of the United States alone and by his own means, and Honduran Marcos Díaz embarked on the route with his pregnant wife and little daughter. Both arrived at the border at the end of December to run into the metal fence and thousands of their compatriots and Central American countrymen waiting at the place to cross.

“It was quite difficult to do it on your own, the moments we have been through are very hard,” he told the voice of america Oscar, while seeking help in a shelter full of migrants in the border city of Juárez, on the Mexican side. And Honduran Marcos Díaz commented that what encourages him to wait and continue “is being able to come to the United States with my family, to work.”

Reyes and Díaz are part of the thousands of migrants who have arrived in recent weeks at the border with the hope that the United States lift the restriction of public health known as Title 42, which facilitates the immediate expulsion of migrants to the Mexican side. But the Supreme Court blocked the cancellation scheduled for December 21 and suspended the decision on the measure that has the Democratic administration of President Joe Biden in disputes with states of Republican governments of the border limits.

When reviewing expectations about the Central American migration to the United States in 2023, experts consulted by the VOA They agree that in order to make a projection it is necessary to take an analytical look at various issues, both internal affairs of the US and the situation in the countries that send migrants.

Salvadoran researcher Napoleón Campos, an expert in international relations and Central American affairs, explains that -in his opinion- the forecast for Central American migration this year could be “just as dramatic or perhaps worse than the last two years.”

The reasons for predicting his projections on the phenomenon are based on the fact that “to the traditional causes that expel population outside the Central American borders is noted (currently) the process of democratic and institutional dismantling and massive violations of human rights, for so much this 2023 can reach even more dramatic figures, ”he says.

In Washington, Abel Núñez from the Central American Resource Center, CARECEN, exposes the VOA that “we are in a worse moment than in previous years” when it comes to immigration.

This, he says, shows how a Democratic administration “is fighting to maintain Title 42”, since the mandate of federal judges to cancel the regulation, the Departments of Homeland Security and Justice requested extensions to prepare for eventual crowds trying to enter the country from illegal way.

Under this reading of the internal situation in the US, Núñez delves into the fact that the migration of Central Americans will continue its upward trend with greater difficulties to enter the country irregularly.

Although the data offered by the US authorities does not put Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras at the forefront as the largest emitters of migrants, as in previous years, it is not because the numbers have dropped substantially, adds Núñez, it is more because “those protagonists of migration no longer fit into the main list, and it is not because the number of migrants entering has decreased, it is because other countries are sending more”, he points out.

Border Patrol shows results

At the end of 2022, the Border Patrol (CBP) presented the compilation of data from recent November, where they recorded 204,155 arrests of irregular migrants, 4% more than in October. December data is still unknown.

However, the federal agency, part of DHS, maintains that the highest concentration of detained individuals are migrants “fleeing the failed authoritarian regimes of Nicaragua and Cuba,” which increased the number in that period.

Well, of the total number of encounters on the southwest border in November, 68,044 came from Cuba or Nicaragua, which represents 35% of the unique encounters.

And “people from Mexico and northern Central America accounted for 58,559 unique encounters in November 2022, representing 30% of unique encounters and a 14.2% drop from November 2021. By comparison, Mexican migrants and from northern Central America accounted for 53% of unique encounters in November 2021,” said CBP Acting Commissioner Troy Miller.

In addition, it clarifies that the implementation of the orderly migration program for Venezuelans it has shown rapid results, since migrants from this South American country constituted the largest volume of migrants on the southern border until October.

“They continue to arrive in much smaller numbers as a result of the immigration control process that includes expulsions to Mexico and through legal channels. Venezuelans have decreased from approximately 1,100 per day the week before that process was announced, to approximately 100 per day consistently throughout November,” Miller said.

Given these official data, the expert Napoleón Campos says that since they are counts of sightings and arrests, they are quantified data, but observers of the migration issue estimate that more than 30% of migrants manage to get around the borders and enter the country without being detected.

“We know that more than 30% of migration does not go through institutions or official records, therefore, to the figures of detainees between the borders of Mexico and the United States, we should add another 30%,” says Campos.

Share of responsibility without assuming

From the United States, Honduran activist Juan Flores, who runs a foundation for humanitarian assistance to immigrants from his country in the American South, told the VOA that the problem will continue to grow because the Central American countries have part of their responsibility for the problem.

“Our perspective as organizations in the United States is that the Central American governments assume their share of responsibility because year after year the problem increases,” says Flores.

Having an orderly migration -adds this leader- could only be achieved with very well articulated work from the Central American governments with their US counterpart.

“In the end, this is a scourge that becomes a problem within the United States and that in the end, the one who ends up paying the consequences is the migrant himself,” he pointed out.

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