What policies could the region expect?

Latin America could play an important role in United States foreign policy over the next four years after Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential elections, particularly on issues such as migration, security and the economy, according to experts, which were the focus of the Republican campaign. .

“Most of what will affect Latin America will be the domestic politics of the United States (…) economic policies that affect, for example, inflation, interest rates or trade policy will clearly affect the region, as will the immigration restrictions that the Trump administration is trying to impose in the region,” he told the Voice of America Eric Farnsworth, director of the Washington office of the Council of the Americas.

That is, in the opinion of this expert, countries like Mexico and Venezuela take particular prominence. In the case of Mexico, because it is a transit point to the United States border and a trading partner; Venezuela, due to the number of undocumented migrants of that nationality who arrive in the United States.

According to official data, around 313,496 undocumented Venezuelans were intercepted by immigration authorities in the last year. As a candidate, the Republican promised to expeditiously deport precisely Venezuelan migrants, focusing on those he classifies as “criminals.”

“Mexico and Venezuela are both going to be central to any immigration policy of the Trump administration. What I would tell you is that President Trump has shown himself to be impulsive and very unpredictable, but on immigration issues and on the issue of tariffs he has been consistent. We can expect that the campaign promises of going strong against migration, of deportations, of tariffs, are going to happen,” explained Tamara Taraciuk Broner, director of the Rule of Law program at the Inter-American Dialogue.

During his previous term, he had an up-and-down relationship with Latin America with strong measures towards Venezuela, aid cuts to Central America and tense moments with Mexico.

Economic strategy

Added to migration is the economic relevance of the region. In one of his last campaign events, Trump assured that “if they do not stop this avalanche of criminals and drugs entering our country from Mexico,” he will “immediately impose a 25% tariff on everything they send to the United States.” .

Claudia Sheinbaum, the new president of Mexico, did not respond directly to Trump’s expressions, however, she assured that “there is no cause for concern” because she is convinced that Mexico will have good relations with its partner and neighbor to the north. On Thursday, the Mexican leader reported in her X profile that had had a “very cordial” telephone conversation with Trump and assured that they talked about “the good relationship that will exist” between both countries.

“Tariffs and trade restrictions will be part of the toolbox to try to influence the interests of countries, to help the United States restrict the flow of migration to that country,” Farnsworth added, saying that there would be efforts to encourage companies to invest in the United States and not in foreign countries. “This is a very nationalist economic agenda that will affect Latin America and the Caribbean.”

Trump, for his part, days ago expressed: “We have a new president of Mexico. She is supposedly a very, very nice woman, they say. I haven’t met her. And I am going to inform you on the first day, or sooner, that if you do not stop this avalanche of criminals and drugs coming into our country, I am immediately going to impose a 25% tariff on everything you send to the United States.”

Alliances and challenges with other presidents

Latin American leaders also have their eye on the new US presidency. Trump’s relationships with them, experts say, will have a lot to do with personalities and how mutual interests are promoted.

“There are some leaders that President Trump seems to have some affinity with, President Milei in Argentina, maybe President Bukele in El Salvador. “Some leaders have a more traditional libertarian or right-wing approach to governing,” said the director of the Washington office of the Council of the Americas.

Other leaders who are “perceived as socialists” such as Gustavo Petro in Colombia or Luiz Inácio Lula Da Silva in Brazil “could find themselves on complicated terms with some of the members of the administration,” he noted.

Bukele was one of the first leaders to congratulate Trump on his victory. Other leaders from the region greeted Trump after his victory, including José Raúl Mulino in Panama, Xiomara Castro in Honduras, Bernardo Arévalo in Guatemala and Daniel Noboa in Ecuador.

“Congratulations to President Donald Trump for his victory in the elections and for being elected by the people of the United States on a peaceful and democratic day. We express our best wishes for your administration to strengthen relations with Latin America and the Caribbean,” Xiomara Castro wrote in her X account.

China’s influence in the region

China’s activities in Latin America could attract particular attention to the new Trump administration. During his first term, the president-elect showed interest in the issue, and now, part of his campaign rhetoric has been to minimize Chinese influence in different parts of the world.

“They are specifically targeting Chinese investments in the region and Chinese imports to the United States through the region,” Farnsworth said.

Finally, the eventual approaches to the region, said the expert, will depend on the person who is appointed to lead the State Department. One of the most popular names for the position is Marco Rubio, senator from Florida and former presidential candidate.

“Rubio has been involved in foreign policy issues in the Senate, particularly Latin American issues, and has strong relationships across the party,” Farnsworth explained.

Analysts estimate that Trump’s victory will have major implications for US trade and climate change policies, the war in Ukraine, American taxes and immigration.

The Republican has offered few details on foreign policy, but his supporters say the force of his personality and his “peace through strength” approach will help bend foreign leaders to his will and calm what Republicans describe as a “world on fire.”

Trump will assume the presidency again on January 20, 2025.

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