What is the outlook in Cuba like after two years of the largest protests experienced after 1959?

They were the largest anti-government protests after the revolution led by Fidel Castro in 1959. Two years later, many of the causes that prompted thousands of Cubans to demonstrate throughout the island persist.

Two years after the social outbreak, the gaze of Cubans is focused on other issues. The demands for freedom were left aside before the need and the “search” of the basic products necessary for daily life. This, together with the multiplied work of the security devices for the prevention of this type of demonstrations, make July 11 just a memory that is heard in a low voice among Cubans.

The context of the protests in Cuba occurred at a time when the country, which lives mainly from tourism, had to endure months of confinement that kept tourists away from the island. To this we must add the internal restrictions, including the importation of products in a particular way and the economic state centralization and the economic, financial and commercial embargo that weighs on Havana by Washington.

With the passing of the years, nature exerts its weight and already the historical leaders of the Cuban political process die or are placed aside so that a new generation of politicians can take the reins. In the Cuban streets the comment is repeated that “Fidel was forgiven everything, Raúl almost everything, and the new one (referring to Migueol Díaz-Canel) must earn the respect of the people.”

And it is that the penultimate great sign of dissatisfaction happened in 1994, in the so-called “special period” after the fall of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), then economic support. A critical shortage stopped society, which is why there was also a migratory crisis led by the so-called rafters. Fidel Castro appeared in the most critical places of the protests, which intimidated the situation.

At that time, the riots only focused on Havana, thanks also to the timely handling of the local media (they all answer to the State). 26 years later, social networks, a medium that the country’s leadership has not been able to manage or control, opened the door to all the provinces. As a result, the claims expanded.

A little more than six years after Castro’s death, and with his brother and former president Raúl partly removed from political life, Cubans opposed to communism rose up asking for “freedom” and “food.” As a result, more than a thousand people were detained. Although a good part of the demonstrations were peaceful, others overflowed their violent anger against the Government of Miguel Díaz-Canel, according to local media.

The revolutionaries “to the streets”

The Executive’s response was relentless. Díaz-Canel tried to repeat the story of his predecessor, but “the fact of not being a history took its toll on him,” say the few who dare to comment on the matter. The president was present at the site of the first protests, but it was too late.

It was then that went to the national media. Visibly upset and with his shirt still sweaty from the journey he had made, he addressed the Cubans from the building that houses his offices accompanied by a group of journalists from his personal group. “We are calling on all the revolutionaries of the country, all the communists, to take to the streets in any of the places where these provocations are going to take place,” he said on the air.

From then on, that was the discourse of the media, describing those who protested as “provocative” and “confused”, the latter “seduced” by the “falsehoods” of social networks. The balance of detainees exceeded one thousand people. Currently some 700 remain in jail or awaiting legal proceedings.

Disturbance of public order and sedition are some of the causes that weigh on those who remain behind bars. Up to 30 years in prison have been requested by prosecutors in some cases. The prosecutions have been criticized by the international community, however the government argues that they do not have the necessary moral force to criticize the response of law enforcement authorities. Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International have also called for the release of the detainees.

Recently, one of the best-known faces of the so-called “dissidents” began a hunger strike to demand the freedom of the prisoners. It is not the first time that Guillermo Fariñas, known as ‘el coco’, has carried out a protest of this type as a sign of rejection. The also winner of the Sakharov prize for freedom of conscience in 2010 is in an evident deterioration of his physical condition, according to the EFE news agency.

“A lot of talk, few changes”

“What happened in the end?” asks one of the citizens consulted for this article. “The day after the protests, some sat down at a table and began to discuss the efforts being made to keep the country afloat and the achievements of health institutions, etc. They should not boast about it, it is their job, ”he concluded.

“It is true that there is an American blockade,” he stressed, “but there is also an internal blockade. They want to control everything, and that is impossible. They have to loosen up a bit. A lot of talk, few changes ”, he highlighted, referring to the internal situation after two years.

The truth is that there have been few political changes. All focused on centralizing the figure of Díaz-Canel as the most important political figure on the island. He is no longer president of the Council of State and Ministers, now he holds the position of president of the Republic of Cuba and also the first secretary of the Communist Party, the only one on the island and who also “is the superior leading force of society and of the State”, according to the Constitution.

“Their resource is to let people go,” says another person. “Those who do not want to be here anymore leave and no longer bother. Many of them later feed the state coffers by sending remittances to their families. It’s a perfect formula for them,” she said. A reasoning to keep in mind. Figures from the US government show that more than 140,000 Cubans have arrived in the country in different ways.

As for social changes, there were several, but EFE highlights the inflation after the economic reforms and currency unification advances without brake. Internal markets move to the rhythm of the dollar, which is quoted on the street at 210 Cuban pesos. This, among other issues, means that ordinary Cubans see their purchasing power considerably reduced. A good part of basic necessities are sold in what the State calls “freely convertible currency”, foreign currencies that are deposited on a card, thus obtaining liquidity for an economy sanctioned by the most powerful nation in the world.

Although there are fewer power outages, known as blackouts, the crisis in electricity generation continues due to the obsolescence of the country’s thermoelectric plants. Some changes have also been generated in the restrictions on food and medicine imports, a resource widely exploited by the opposition when they affirm that “they are the ones who do not let anything enter the country”, referring to the leaders.

The five vaccines against Covid also allowed quarantine measures to be relaxed on the island, which also lowered tensions. The change in social policy brought about by the approval of a new family code also helped the Government to stay afloat.

The crisis was also deepened by the passage of several hurricanes, destroying everything in their path and affecting agriculture, the housing sector, as well as the electricity sector. 2022 was an extremely difficult year for Cuba in this regard.

The United States and Cuba blame each other for the country’s hardships

In this context, the confrontations between Cuba and its historical enemy, the United States, continue. They point fingers at each other as to who is to blame for the hardships that the Cuban people are going through.

“It’s true that they don’t have to get involved in internal affairs, but if they tell me they want to help me, welcome,” says a retired teacher. “However, I don’t see steps from the Americans. Every day they are concerned about an X or Y situation in the country, but I do not see actions. If they really want us well, they should remove the blockade, ”she points out decisively. “There we will see who is the bad guy. If the one who directs us, or those who have had interests in us all our lives, ”she argued.

Two years later, Havana points to washington as the cause of the protests. The Reuters agency echoed a complaint made in the Granma newspaper, the country’s main newspaper.

“The United States bears direct responsibility for the riots of July 11 and 12, 2021”, he published on his front page. “Slanders promoted by the White House, related to events it sponsored in 2021, are used as a pretext to maintain a policy of maximum pressure against Cuba”

The response was immediate from Washington. A State Department official noted that “as everyone knows, the Cuban people protested on their own (…) the regime continues to violently repress virtually any type of peaceful public dissent and detains, harasses, and threatens the families of detained protesters who dare to speak publicly about their detained relatives”.

On the one hand, they do not want to give in to the “enemy”. On the other, they are unaware of the legitimacy of the Cuban government. A confrontation that, far from further cooling the rapprochement attempts between the two nations, leaves as collateral damage the difficulties that the Cuban people are going through.

With local media, EFE and Reuters