The government of Argentine President Alberto Fernández is not experiencing “a climate of destabilization” that could threaten the completion of his mandate scheduled for the end of next year, analysts say.
The national executive branch of Argentina experiences a sensitive political moment since the beginning of the month, after the untimely resignation of the Minister of Economy, Manuel Guzmán. The country, meanwhile, tries to overcome one of its worst moments of inflation, which has already exceeded 62% in the last year.
The current government faces the complications of its indebtedness with the International Monetary Fund, of almost 45,000 million dollars. The agreements with that body demand the progressive reduction of the fiscal deficit, but have aroused criticism from the vice president herself, former president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who asks to protect impoverished sectors.
Yes, there is a questioning of the management behind closed doors”
Fernández and the ruling left-wing coalition, the Frente de Todos, are going through “a complex situation” due to economic challenges and the questioning behind closed doors and in public by their allies, explains Bruno Tondini, a professor specializing in finance and law at the National University of the Silver.
He specifies that the ruling Peronism is not a “monolithic” figure and its cracks have worsened since the negative results of last year’s elections, when the ruling party lost its majority in the Chamber of Deputies.
This context does not represent a risk for the continuity of Fernández as president, he remarks, however. “You don’t see a climate of destabilization. Yes, there is a questioning of the management behind closed doors and not to mention outside the complex situation of inflation, strict exchange control, difficulties in acquiring certain goods”, he comments to the voice of america.
Tondini underlines that the political and economic class and the citizens of Argentina are convinced that the governments must finish their mandates. “There is a political step forward in society”, beyond the street protests that opponents and even pro-government sectors are leading against Fernández.
double form crisis
The current crisis in Argentina it is “in a double way”, that is, both political and economic, assures from Buenos Aires to the VOA the political scientist and research professor at the Catholic University of Córdoba, César Murua.
“The economic crisis is of a fiscal nature, it is a delayed deficit for almost 10 years, accumulated consecutively” and that the agreement with the IMF seeks to reduce, he explains. Added to this is the “weak leadership” of Fernández, he affirms.
“He is not a public figure that grants a transversal leadership to society. He can’t even do it in the government coalition itself, which has been broken for a long time,” even with Vice President Kirchner, she says.
Local media pointed out that Fernández had not spoken with Kirchner for almost a month until the Economy Minister resigned. Murua points out that the Argentine president has also failed to “align his own cabinet” and even dares to predict new changes in his list of ministers.
Murua agrees with Tondini that Fernández is not in danger of having his term interrupted due to his financial and political difficulties. The current crisis is not a crisis comparable to that of 2001, when President Fernando De La Rúa resigned amid social protests. That, he says, was a “total” crisis.
“The peculiarity of the current crisis is that it is economic and politicalbut it occurs in a context of growth and that may be one of the factors that prevents” the collapse of the Fernández government, says the Argentine analyst.
Alberto Fernández is not a figure that grants a transversal leadership”
The new Economy Minister, Susana Batakis, promised this week to respect the agreements negotiated by her predecessor with the IMF and hoped that there would be “order and balance” in the accounts of the Argentine State. Her promises seemed to give continuity to the fiscal program contemplated by former Minister Guzmán.
“We are not going to spend more than we have,” Batakis said on Monday. Murua, for his part, considers that the change of names in the financial portfolio does not imply “a clear resolution of the course” to follow in economic policies.
“Basically, what Argentina needs is an economic policy with much more critical measures in terms of their potential effects, broader, and the government needs greater political strength for that policy, which neither Minister Batakis nor Minister Batakis has today. President Fernández”, he warns.
He believes that the Argentine president needs to make a “bolder” move within his alliances to pave the country’s political and economic floor.
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