What is at stake in the Guatemalan elections?

Guatemala is preparing for “complex” general elections next June, marked by little credibility in political institutions and voter apathy, according to analysts and experts close to the process.

On March 27, the Guatemalan Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE), the highest authority in electoral matters, began the elections where the president, vice president, the 160 deputies of the National Congress, 340 mayors and municipal councils, as well as members of the Central American Parliament.

Some 9.3 million Guatemalans have been summoned to vote in what “probably is one of the most complex (processes) since the return to democracy in 1985 for Guatemala,” he told the voice of america the coordinator of the Department of Sociopolitical Research of the Association for Research and Social Studies of Guatemala (THAT’S HOW IT IS), Jahir Dabroy.

The future of Guatemala

“In this electoral process, Guatemalans will decide the authorities that will govern the country for the next four-year period, explained TSE spokesman Luis Gerardo Ramírez.

Ramírez stressed that Guatemalans “who are registered and who go to the polls will have that responsibility and that duty to continue strengthening democracy and, above all, delegate to the authorities that they choose the destiny of the country for the next period.”

Despite obstacles such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the TSE is in the second phase of the electoral process and hopes to “carry out a satisfactory electoral process for Guatemalans,” he told the VOA the institution’s spokesperson.

Ramírez recalled that the TSE “delivers the process” to citizen institutions grouped into temporary electoral bodies such as the departmental and municipal electoral boards and the boards that receive votes.

The TSE “does not count the votes, they do not register the votes in the minutes, it is the Guatemalans who make up these temporary electoral bodies. What the TSE does in this sense is transmit or transfer this data that is initially preliminary and that later becomes official.” , he pointed.

Process in question

“We hope that the electoral process will go by without any type of setback and will be carried out according to plan,” said the spokesman for the Guatemalan electoral authority, which has called on the political parties to make “high” campaigns in the face of fights and heated spirits prior to the elections.

The institution itself has been criticized for an alleged lack of impartiality in directing the electoral process, specifically because the TSE has the power to accept or reject presidential candidacies.

Electoral authorities in Guatemala have “adopted an aggressive, interventionist and seemingly biased approach to determining who can run for office in the first place. These actions are harmful to democracy in multiple ways,” warned Canadian analyst Regina Bateson.

The assistant professor at the Graduate College of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa participated, along with other analysts, in a questions and answers session sponsored by the Inter-American Dialogue, a think tank based in Washington.

“This year, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) rejected the candidacy of the country’s most exciting and transformative presidential candidate, Thelma Cabrera, and allowed others with questionable pasts, such as Zury Ríos and Sandra Torres, to run.”

Ríos is the daughter of former President José Efraín Ríos Montt, who led one of the bloodiest periods in Guatemalan history. Torres was first lady during the presidency of her then-husband Álvaro Colom (2008-2012).

“The net result is that Guatemalans are left with the same old list of uninspiring options, even less trust in their country’s institutions, and a democracy that feels more and more like a facade,” the researcher said.

For Bateson, although “this year’s elections were supposed to bring positive change to Guatemala, they may end up reinforcing the notion that the country is ruled by a ‘corrupt pact’, rather than by the people.”

Regarding these questions, the TSE spokesman referred VOA to a statement made by the electoral authority on April 14.

“The opinions that have emerged both nationally and internationally derive from a perception that has been reproduced since the call for elections on January 20, whose public disagreement with the actions of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal supports the free expression of opinions that oxygenate democracy,” the statement said.

“This dynamic eventually comes to generate misrepresentations of reality, adducing assertions that weaken the national electoral institutionality,” he adds.

The TSE highlighted that “those dissonant voices and that misrepresent reality show that people and political organizations are being particularly affected, however, the action taken by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal is based on Guatemalan law.”

Which presidential candidates stand out?

The Guatemalan constitution prohibits President Alejandro Giammattei from seeking re-election. His departure has opened the presidential race to 23 proposals for presidential binomials from 30 political parties, he stated to the VOA Jahir Dabroy

According to the analyst, almost all the contenders – not only the presidential ones – worry more about what they can win when they are in office than in proposing a distinctive plan. “They do not differ greatly in ideological terms. It seems that they are much more focused on the issue of doing business with the State or on everything that can be done within the State that they continue to look at other spaces,” Dabroy said.

Dabroy stressed that this could be an important moment for “some specific proposal that goes beyond a slogan, a little song, a photograph” to appear.

ASIES is part of the independent electoral observers in the process.

Guatemala needs “a plan to be developed by an organization within, not only the presidency, but the work that is done in the Legislature is very important and we lack programmatic proposals to be developed by political parties as a parliamentary agenda” Dabroy noted.

The main presidential candidates in Guatemala

In early April, the main candidates in the Guatemalan presidential race are Sandra Torres (UNE), Edmund Mulet (Cabal) and Zury Ríos (Valor), “all experienced politicians,” the expert in peace studies and sciences told Inter-American Dialogue policies from the University of Notre Dame Joséphine Lechartre.

According to Lechartre, among the issues that the candidates raise is “law and order against organized crime, the most beloved issue by Guatemalan voters, anti-corruption action and social programs, including the development of basic infrastructures and better job opportunities.” .

“The dire state of the economy, endemic corruption, and disinformation campaigns targeting anti-corruption personnel have significantly eroded Guatemalans’ support for democracy, with more than half of the country’s citizens valuing a decent standard of living more than a healthy democratic system,” he explained.

In this sense, the favorite according to the researcher would be Sandra Torres. One of the points of her campaign is the reactivation of the social program and it is expected that part of the decisive female vote will go to Torres.

political apathy

The candidate list in Guatemala “represents a continuation of the ‘old guard’ and the usual in Guatemalan politics. None of the candidates will carry into office the program of political, economic and social reform that the country so desperately needs,” he opined. the former US ambassador to Guatemala, Donald J. Planty.

This could explain the political apathy and the probable high level of abstentionism that Dabroy predicts.

“It seems that the enchantment of a candidate has not awakened in the citizens yet because we are regularly voting for figures, for people, rather than for political organizations and political projects of the country,” said the political scientist.

In Guatemala, “the bulk of the citizens seem to be losing confidence in the democratic system because these people who make up the political class are unable to satisfy the demands of the citizenry and living conditions in general are not improved,” Dabroy explained.

“We can see that, for example, with the high migratory flow that there are also Guatemalans in this case trying to reach the US,” he clarified.

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