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As the conflict in Sudan enters its second week, neighboring countries are watching with concern as the fighting threatens to spread beyond the borders of the northeast African country. So far, most regional leaders have not taken an official stance on the conflict and have only urged calm, but the two Sudanese leaders appear to be ignoring these demands.
Sudan celebrates a week at war. Hundreds of people have lost their lives in a conflict that had been simmering for months and finally broke out on April 15. Now, it is practically a war between the two strongmen of the country: the head of the regular army and de facto leader of Sudan, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and his number 2, the leader of the feared paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (FAR). , Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, nicknamed ‘Hemedti’.
The country is immersed in a spiral of chaos and violence. But how far can the shock waves of this conflict go? Could the instability in Sudan, a frequently forgotten but key country in regional politics, affect its neighbors and the rest of the world?
Since the start of hostilities, the concern of the actors in the region has been maximum. Diplomatic activity has intensified in an attempt to find a way out of the clashes: the African Union (AU) and the regional organization Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), which brings together eight East African countries, including Sudan, They have met to try to mediate between the two and bring about a ceasefire in the country.
But, for now, neither Al Burhan nor Hemedti seem willing to ask their men to put down their weapons. Of all the ceasefires that have been announced since the start of the clashes, none have been respected, not even the one announced for the celebration of Eid al Fitr, which marks the end of the holy month of Ramadan.
For the journalist Antoine Galindo, lasting calm now seems difficult. “The tension has risen and has reached such a point in recent weeks that, now that the red line has been crossed and the conflict has broken out, I find it difficult to reverse,” the Sudan specialist for the newspaper told France 24. Research, Africa Intelligence.
However, the determination of the actors in the region to find a way out reveals their concern. And it is that, with a strategic position at the intersection of the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea and the Sahel region, Sudan is in the midst of multiple interests and aspirations of not only regional, but also international actors.
Being the third largest country in Africa and sharing borders with seven countries, the consequences of the war it is experiencing can have a significant impact on the geopolitics of the area. In addition, Sudan is a country rich in oil and mineral resources, something that fully mediates its international relations.
In fact, the concern seems so great that IGAD recently announced the dispatch of three presidents to lead the mediation in Khartoum: Salva Kiir, president of South Sudan; William Ruto from Kenya and Ismael Omar Guelleh from Djibouti. This high-level meeting, for the moment, no further details have been given or are known about the logistics, probably complex, of sending three leaders to a country in the midst of conflict.
Both Hemedti and al-Burhan have also rejected any attempt at foreign interference in their dispute.
Attempts at mediation remain stalled
In addition to the African Union and IGAD, there have been other mediation efforts between the two Sudanese generals. These attempts include that of the Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs, Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, who have contacted the two clashing leaders.
In vain? According to Galindo, the means of pressure on the two men are ultimately scarce. “Al-Burhan and Hemedti jointly seized power from the hands of civilians in 2021, ending the transition that had begun in 2019 (…) which led to the suspension of international aid to Sudan and the freezing of the renegotiation of its debt. “The African Union, after this coup in October 2021, suspended Sudan. So they cannot suspend it again (…)”, which leaves regional organizations with few pressure tools, according to the specialist .
“The only means of pressure that there can be are the Emirates [Árabes Unidos] and Egypt, because the latter is close to al-Burhan and may have more influence over him, while Mohammed bin Zayed, the president of the Emirati federation, is quite close to Hemedti,” concludes Galindo.
Indeed, Egypt has offered its mediation services between the warring sides, but President Al-Sisi does not hide his support for Al-Burhan.
When hostilities broke out, Egyptian troops were present in Sudan under a military cooperation agreement. These troops were stopped by Hemedti’s militiamen on April 15 at a base located 350 km north of Khartoum. Although the Egyptian army spokesman claimed that the soldiers were there for joint exercises with their Sudanese counterparts, Hemedti accuses the Egyptian forces of supporting al-Burhan.
The Gulf States, led by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), also have interests at stake in the ongoing crisis in Sudan. The UAE is an ally of Hemedti, whose forces have been fighting in Yemen since 2016, fighting the Houthi rebels alongside the coalition led by the Gulf countries (Saudi Arabia and the UAE). In recent days, the Sudanese Army has released a video showing ammunition seized from Hemedti’s paramilitaries, identified as Serbian production and initially sold to the Emirati Army.
Direct implications in the conflict?
“We have confirmed reports that two neighboring countries are supporting the RAF, one of them located in the west.” This statement by Shams al-Din Kabbashi, a member of the Transitional Governing Council of Sudan, a body chaired by al-Burhan, made on April 18 to the media Sudan Tribunefurther increased the agitation.
“Two planes delivered ammunition and supplies, which were transported to another area. There was another attempt to land a third plane at the Merowe airport (350 km north of Khartoum),” added Kabbashi, who did not want to specify the two accused countries. , although Sudan’s border countries to the west are the Central African Republic, Chad and Libya.
These accusations confirm that the war between the two generals is no longer just a local problem, but one that interests all regional and some international actors.
But more and more countries are taking sides in this crisis. Eritrea, which borders Sudan, has backed the RAF leader. In March, Hemedti met with the Eritrean president, Isaias Afewerki. When the tensions were already latent in Sudan, Eritrea nevertheless reiterated “its firm conviction that the problem of Sudan can only be solved by the Sudanese people themselves, without the intervention of foreign actors.”
Although an ally of Ethiopia under the leadership of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, Eritrea is diplomatically isolated globally, but its influence is decisive in eastern Sudan and the Red Sea region.
However, of all the countries that share a border with Sudan, Chad is perhaps the most attentive to the situation. The country, concerned about regional destabilization and, in particular, in the sensitive area of Darfur, has announced the closure of its land borders with Sudan.
In N’Djamena, the country’s capital, it is still remembered that Sudan was the origin of two rebel incursions, in 2006 and 2008, that shook the presidency of Idriss Déby, president of Chad from 1990 to 2021 and father of the current head of state, Mahamat Deby.
Since then, Idriss Déby has been killed in combat and Sudan’s former strongman, Omar al-Bashir, has been ousted. But his respective successors have tried not to reignite the tensions of the past. Déby received General al-Burhan on January 29, before granting Hemedti an audience the next day.
At the international level, a country like Russia, for example, maintains close relations with the two belligerents and, during a very recent visit to Sudan in February, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met both al-Burhan as with Hemedti. Moscow has also signed a memorandum of understanding with the Sudanese government to build a military base in the Red Sea.
Thus, according to several experts, in addition to regional interests at stake, there are other actors involved in the Sudanese conflict, which could lead to a split in the country between the two generals, a situation similar to what has already been seen in Libya, another of Sudan’s neighboring countries.
