What happens in the Guatemalan elections and why the urgent call to protect democracy?

A court in Guatemala sowed confusion and surprise by announcing the sudden disqualification of one of the two political parties that would contest the second round in the battle for the presidency, almost at the same time that the highest electoral authority in the country confirmed the results of a tumultuous election. and the object of harsh international criticism.

The suspension this Wednesday of the anti-corruption movement Semilla, of the center-leftist Bernardo Arévalo, raised waves of indignation and rejection, both inside and outside the Central American nation.

The next day, the Constitutional Court rehabilitated Semilla and formally reinstated Arévalo in the race, in one more chapter of an electoral saga that has traveled a bumpy road since its inception and to which there could still be more unforeseen twists.

The disqualification of a candidate in the middle of the elections “is a real threat to democracy, one that really worries Guatemalans,” said former US ambassador to the Central American country, Stephen McFarland.

“The next few days are going to be extraordinarily significant and eventful,” McFarland said. in a panel with analysts and experts from the US and Guatemala, sponsored this Thursday by the US think tank Atlantic Council.

How has Guatemala got here?

Guatemala’s has been an electoral process criticized almost from the beginning, when candidates favored by the polls were disqualified and most of them challenged the status quo established by the so-called “corrupt pact”.

This term, coined in 2017 by independent journalistic investigations, responds to a series of corrupt politicians, legislators and businessmen, allies in search of impunity.

Candidates “with questionable pasts” were allowed in the registrations, according to analysts, who mainly point to the favorite, former first lady Sandra Torres, who has been accused of corruption.

More than 20 pairs disputed on June 25 the highest positions in the Central American country, because the current president, Alejandro Giammattei, is not allowed to seek re-election in accordance with the Constitution.

He election daymarked by popular discontent and thousands of invalid votesthe former diplomat and son of former Guatemalan President Juan José Arévalo (1945-1951), Bernardo Arévalo, emerged as an unlikely contender for the second round.

The center-left candidate entered the race backed by the Movimiento Semilla, born out of the 2015 anti-corruption demonstrations. His appearance in the front line of presidential hopefuls was not predicted by the polls, and has led many analysts to believe he might have a real chance. to win on August 20.

However, a week after the first round, the Constitutional Court of Guatemala stopped the officialization of the results due to legal appeals presented by several of the political forces that did not reach the necessary vote rate to stay in the race, among them the ruling party and its allies.

“This is basically a made up excuse to try to knock out Semilla and the beneficiary, of course, would appear to be the ruling party candidate who came in a distant third,” McFarland clarified, referring to Giammattei’s party candidate Manuel Conde.

The favorite Sandra Torres was also among those who questioned the elections, despite the supervision of several international observers.

24 hours of uncertainty

After more than seventeen days of delays and legal obstacles, the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) was prepared at the end of this Wednesday to announce the validity of the elections and certify the two candidates for the second round, however, almost in parallel, the Prosecutor’s Office against Corruption in Guatemala announced on Twitter the suspension of the Seed movement, under accusations of fraud.

The news shocked a country that woke up on Thursday to a raid on the citizen registry office of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal as part of its investigation into Semilla, which they accuse of inflating its membership to qualify for electoral registration.

The Prosecutor’s Office accuses the Semilla movement of having more than 5,000 illegal members, including 12 deceased.

On the same Thursday, Arévalo told reporters that the decision against Semilla violated a Guatemalan law that prevents the suspension of political parties during an election.

“We are in the electoral contest, we are moving forward and we are not going to stop for this corrupt group,” he said.

Dozens took to the streets in support of Arévalo and Semilla, whom they see as victims of forces that want to prevent the government’s cleanup.

The United States, Guatemala’s main ally and an important source of remittances, recognized the result of the elections and affirmed that it was “deeply concerned” before the new crisis. Governments of the region such as Mexico and Chile also expressed their concern, as did the representations in the country of the European Union and the Organization of American States.

Shortly before 24 hours after the announcement by the Prosecutor’s Office, which put Semilla and Arévalo in limbo, the country’s Constitutional Court announced that it had granted an injunction to the Semilla Movement, revoking the judicial order that suspended it and returning to the anti-corruption deputy on the run.

“Extreme judicialization” of the electoral process

For the professor of Politics and International Affairs at the Universidad del Valle, in Guatemala, Marielos Chang, the situation “is complicated.”

“What we have seen in this electoral process is an extreme judicialization of the candidacies, of the registration of candidates. Again we are already in a process that we are closer to defining who will be the next president of the country and even so, an interference continues by different institutions in the country”, he specified in dialogue with the Atlantic Council.

Chang insisted that what happened is “quite worrying because what the Public Ministry is proposing is illegal. A political party cannot be suspended during the electoral process,” he said.

“I think this is a direct attack on the idea of ​​a runoff election, and how it should be handled. The threat here is that (Guatemala) ends up having a democratic system that is more of a democratic mask than anything else.” , indicated for his part Ambassador McFarland.

The analysts also drew attention to the reaction to this controversy, especially that of civil institutions and the people, which manifested itself in a sign of significant “citizen empowerment.”

“I do not see that we are going to be able to rest in these coming weeks, but on the contrary, the general public will have to be very attentive and the different actors in Guatemala, given what can happen and above all in the defense that we arrive to August 20 with the participation of the two parties that have already been made official (as contenders) by the TSE,” Chang warned.

An uncertain future

Regarding the lesson that these elections are leaving, where the invalid vote grew to exceed 17%, demonstrating a crisis of mistrust in political parties and their management, experts insisted that a plan is necessary for the future, still uncertain .

“The great lesson here, which we have to keep in the future, is that we cannot wait 4 more years to create those options that represent us,” added the professor from the Universidad del Valle.

Chang mentioned, among the possible actions, a reform to the electoral law and political parties, pointing out points such as the autonomy of the magistrates of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and “the procedure to register candidates or to reject candidacies to reduce that discretion that can exist in the electoral process”.

“The other issue has to do with strengthening the Vote Receiving Board, which I really believe we have survived what has happened in recent weeks thanks to this citizen work,” said the political scientist about the commissions made up of volunteers, who ensure the legality of the process.

If the path to the second round goes wrong, the consequences would be very serious, said the former US ambassador to Guatemala, Stephen McFarland.

“There are ways in which Guatemalans can react and one is to continue migrating north, to the United States in greater numbers and the other, unfortunately I have seen it in other countries – I hope it does not come to this – is to start taking to the streets (. ..) The possibility of violence is something that nobody wants,” said the veteran diplomat.

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