The beginning of a third term of the ruler Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela raises questions and challenges in relations with Colombia in areas such as peace, trade and diplomacy, in addition to the immigration issue.
Since the beginning of the talks between the Colombian government and the guerrilla of the National Liberation Army, ELN, Venezuela has played a crucial role as guarantor of the process.
In that sense, the analysts consulted by the Voice of Americathe government sees Venezuela as a driver on the path to total peace, and they warn that without the agreement of Caracas, it is unlikely that the processes with the ELN will advance, hence President Petro has chosen to maintain relations with the ELN. neighboring country.
“This may lead to President Petro still maintaining the expectation that he can advance much further with the ELN, despite the fact that this group has not wanted to, since it seems that it is tied to a stronger position compared to what happens there” commented Carlos Arias, political analyst and professor at the Javeriana University of Bogotá.
Impact on bilateral trade
Trade between Colombia and Venezuela, neighboring countries, grew 47% in 2024, with projected revenues of more than $1 billion by 2025, according to figures from the Colombian Ministry of Commerce.
In that sense, Carlos Naranjo, political and economic analyst, “for Colombia the border is very important, especially in departments like Norte de Santander. That it is open is good for both nations. But let’s not forget that it was Maduro who initially closed the border, so at any time he can do the same thing again and it is a risk for all merchants.”
Effects on internal politics in Colombia
He link between President Gustavo Petro and Nicolás Maduro It also has political implications in Colombia. The opposition has called for a firmer stance against the Venezuelan government.
In the country, a November 2024 survey by the Universidad del Rosario of Bogotá and the firm Cifras y Conceptos revealed that 90% of Colombians disagreed that the Colombian government recognized Nicolás Maduro as president.
In that order, the analyst Arias maintained that although Petro has stated that the Venezuelan elections were not “free,” his decision to maintain relations with Maduro, because he believes that it would “affect” Colombians and Venezuelans on both sides of the the border and that would harm the economy in the more than 2,219 kilometers of border that they share, will undoubtedly have consequences in the face of the 2026 elections.
“It is clearly going to impact the elections in Colombia and it is going to impact not only the presidential elections, but also the Congressional elections, because one of the most important issues in the last 15 years in Colombia has been peace and the clear presence of the National Liberation Army in Venezuelan territory is clearly going to impact one of the issues on the campaign agenda, which is going to be the issue of peace,” Arias commented to the VOA.
“The next candidate from the Colombian left or center-left will have to, one way or another, move away from Gustavo Petro’s positions. This is not my subjectivity. One reviews all the perception studies and in all of them, without fail, all Colombians reject Nicolás Maduro,” he added.
For Óscar Chala, a political scientist at the National University of Colombia and researcher at Fundación Paz y Reconciliación, Pares, the government knows of the internal pressure to raise the tone regarding what is happening in Venezuela.
And beyond what that decision may mean in electoral matters, the Colombian executive “is going to let the other government be the one to make the decision to recognize the government while Maduro” is in power.
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