Left-wing leaders in Latin America, especially their South American neighbors, are hopeful about the return of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the return of a Brazilian foreign policy that prioritizes regional integration, in stark contrast to the position of Jair Bolsonaro, who it has turned its back on its closest associates. However, the political map and the agenda of the region are very different 20 years after Lula came to power.
By Márcio Resende, RFI correspondent in Buenos Aires
On January 24, in Buenos Aires, Brazil will return to CELAC (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States), from which the government of President Bolsonaro withdrew the country three years ago. Lula is expected to arrive a day early to meet his Argentine counterpart, Alberto Fernández, on his first trip abroad after taking office, symbolizing the new Brazilian government’s priority to regional integration, a key difference from the four-year government. by Jair Bolsonaro.
If Lula was the active and charismatic leader who pointed the way towards the regional model of public policies against inequality, this time his influence should be more horizontal and his alliances on specific issues.
“I see more horizontal levels of influence, as opposed to a vertical hegemony that guides the regional debate. I believe that Lula’s alliance with the neighboring left-wing governments will revolve around specific issues, such as the environment. I don’t see an alliance around general economic policies,” says Peruvian political scientist Carlos Meléndez, a specialist in comparative analysis between Latin American countries.
“In other words, Lula will be more active at the COP than at Davos,” Meléndez said, referring to the UN Climate Conference and the World Economic Forum.
Carlos Meléndez, from the Chilean Diego Portales University, believes that the expectations of the leftist leaders with Lula are moderate because they are aware of the limitations of the new Brazilian government – which, in the past, used BNDES credits for business with Brazilian companies, in a policy that caused corruption scandals in various countries in the region.
“Lula is no longer that active patriarch of the Latin American left of 20 years ago. He returns to power without that expansionist policy of influence through economic diplomacy, through which all the corruption was filtered,” says Meléndez.
Lula’s expectations with his neighbors
At the same time, Lula must also have tempered his expectations, knowing that his firepower is less. In addition, the leader whom everyone was courting will meet new leftist leaders such as the Chilean Gabriel Boric and the Colombian Gustavo Petro, with whom he will have to form an alliance that tends to be more symbolic than decisive, addressing issues on the new agenda such as the environment, gender identity and indigenous peoples.
Twenty years ago, the region was divided between a pragmatic left, represented by Brazil, Uruguay and Chile, and an anti-imperialist left with Bolivia, Ecuador and Peru, led by the Venezuela of Hugo Chávez. For Meléndez, this Bolivarian left is very weakened today while the pragmatic left has gained a new representative, the Mexican Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who has occupied a space in the absence of Brazil in the region.
“There are different types of left in the region that carry certain responsibilities. The Bolivarian left has the liability of authoritarianism. The PT left [por el Partido de los Trabajadores de Brasil] drags the liability of corruption that affects the moral authority. This has forced them to go into the background while other actors compete for the role of regional leadership, López Obrador is one of them,” says the specialist.
Regarding what Lula wants from the region, the Argentine political scientist and international analyst Rosendo Fraga explains that Lula will seek to be the representative of Latin America in international forums under the premise that global players lead their regions.
“The leadership exercised by Brazil is not hegemonic, but representative. And this representativeness in international forums seeks to function as a platform for Brazil’s international insertion in the context of global leaders,” the director of the Union Studies Center told RFI. for a New Majority.
The return of Brazil to its own region
The change of government in the largest country in South America symbolizes Brazil’s return to its own region. In terms of foreign policy, President Jair Bolsonaro has prioritized relations with the United States of Donald Trump and the governments of right-wing ideology, with bilateral and ideological alliances.
“Bolsonaro has turned his back on neighboring countries in particular, but more than that, he has turned his back on Brazil’s foreign policy in general. With Lula, this dynamic changes and Brazil once again gives priority to the countries of the region” , says Rosendo Fraga.
The specialist foresees a boost from Lula to reorganize the Union of South American Nations (Unasur), as well as the return of Brazil to CELAC, two regional forums from which the Bolsonaro government has separated Brasilia.
The symbolic date for Brazil’s return is January 24, when the CELAC presidents meet in Buenos Aires. Argentina holds the rotating presidency of this forum and the Argentine president, Alberto Fernández, will consider it a personal triumph to have brought Brazil back. A day before, Lula is scheduled to hold a bilateral meeting with Fernández, inaugurating his international trips and with Argentina as his first destination, a practice that Bolsonaro has abandoned.
Argentina’s need
For three years, Alberto Fernández did not go to Brazil for a bilateral meeting with Jair Bolsonaro, but it was enough for Lula to win the elections for, just hours later, the Argentine president traveled to Brazil to take a photo with Lula.
The Brazilian friend represents not only a fundamental element for regional integration that places Argentina as Brazil’s main ally, but also for Argentina’s projection in the international context.
For example, Argentina wants to join the BRICS, the bloc made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Lula must be the best lobbyist for Argentina to achieve this goal.
The alliance between Brazil and Argentina was frozen during the Bolsonaro government, despite the fact that both countries are the main political and strategic partner of the other. And that is the reality that, as of this Sunday, both the Argentine and Brazilian governments intend to change.
