In his last days at the head of NATO, the Norwegian Jens Stoltenberg – who this Tuesday hands over to Mark Rutte – has dedicated himself to taking stock of his 10 years as secretary general of the organization. A period in which “the world has changed profoundly” because Vladimir Putin “has brought brutal war back to Europe.” At the same time, the rivalry between the great powers has accelerated and a whole series of challenges (terrorism, disruptive technologies, cyberattacks or climate change) have “transformed our security landscape.”
As the world has changed, NATO has attempted to adapt to new realities. Stoltenberg maintains that “This last decade has been the most transformative for the Alliance since the Cold War“: deployment of tens of thousands of combat-ready soldiers to the Eastern flank, half a million troops on high alert across the Alliance, increased defense investment and industrial capacity, and four new allies (Montenegro, North Macedonia, Finland and Sweden). The Alliance has also deepened its partnership with Indo-Pacific countries. In 10 years, the EU has become “more agile and ready to face challenges from wherever they come.”
Looking to the future, Stoltenberg considers it a priority take care of the transatlantic link between Europe and the United States and views with skepticism the EU’s intention to develop its own defense pillar, with a commissioner dedicated to this objective in Ursula von der Leyen’s new team. “I welcome the fact that the EU is making more efforts in defense, as long as they do so in a way that does not duplicate or compete with NATO. What the EU should not do is start building alternative defense structures,” says the outgoing Secretary General. He leaves his successor five lessons that in his opinion are key to the “continued success” of the Alliance.
[Mark Rutte, el holandés que se entiende con (casi) todo el mundo y toma el relevo al frente de la OTAN]
SECURITY IS NOT FREE. After the Cold War, as tensions between the blocs eased, defense investment plummeted, particularly in Europe. Now that security is at stake, military spending must increase rapidly. The number of allies spending at least 2% of their GDP on defense has increased from three in 2014 to 23 in 2024. For the first time, collective defense spending in Canada and Europe has exceeded 2%. Spain is in last position since it barely reaches 1.28%. Stoltenberg warns that this objective “is no longer sufficient.” New defense plans for Europe’s security approved at the 2023 NATO summit call for allies to spend “significantly more than 2% on defense in the future.”
FREEDOM IS MORE VALUABLE THAN FREE TRADE. The outgoing head of NATO emphasizes that “our economic decisions have security consequences.” “Until recently, some Allies believed that buying gas from Russia was a purely commercial issue. However, we have seen that relying on Russian gas made us vulnerable. We must not make the same mistake with China. We need to better protect our critical infrastructure, avoid exporting technologies that can be used against us and reduce our vulnerability,” says Stoltenberg.
MILITARY FORCE IS A PREREQUISITE FOR DIALOGUE. Stoltenberg’s third lesson must be applied to the case of Ukraine. “If we give more weapons to Ukraine, we can make the regime in Moscow understand that it cannot win on the battlefield and that the only option for Russia is to sit at the negotiating table. Although it may seem paradoxical, the shortest path to peace and dialogue in Ukraine is to provide more weapons to Ukraine,” defends the Norwegian politician. In his opinion, since the start of the war in February 2022 “there has been no basis for a constructive dialogue with Russia.” While it is clear that Moscow will have to be part of any peace deal, it is up to kyiv to decide when the time is right for talks. “Power is the only language Putin understands. Dialogue only works when it is backed by solid defenses,” insists Stoltenberg.
MILITARY POWER HAS ITS LIMITS. The case of Afghanistan is the example that the Secretary General of NATO gives to illustrate his fifth lesson. After the terrorist attacks against the United States on 9/11 in 2001, “it was right” to send NATO forces to Afghanistan to help destroy Al Qaeda, as well as prevent it from becoming a safe haven for international terrorists. “We achieved our original goals, but we also saw the cost of expanding the mission. Building a democratic and united Afghanistan with equal rights for all was a laudable goal, but too ambitious“acknowledges Stoltenberg.
In his opinion, the fact that the Afghan government and security forces collapsed so quickly “showed why it was right to leave.” “There was no evidence that staying another 20 years would have changed the outcome. We may be asked again to intervene militarily beyond our borders in the future. However, any future operation must have clearly defined objectives throughout. the operation. We must be clear about what NATO military power can and cannot achieve“says the outgoing secretary general.
TAKE CARE OF THE LINK BETWEEN EU AND USA. An especially pertinent lesson given the possibility that Donald Trump, with whom Stoltenberg had to deal during his first term, returns to the White House and makes good on his threat to leave NATO. “On both sides of the Atlantic, we must recognize the value of the transatlantic alliance and invest in it. Europeans must understand that without NATO there is no security in Europe. 80% of NATO defense spending comes from non-NATO allies. members of the EU,” he points out.
“For their part, Americans must recognize the value of their friends and allies in NATO. From Korea to Afghanistan, the United States has never had to fight alone. Thirty-one countries make substantial contributions to American security and interests. Multiply the power and influence of the United States globally. This is an advantage that no other great world power has,” he insists. Stoltenberg’s message to Trump is that “NATO is one of the United States’ greatest assets“.
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