We do not believe it: mobile phones will not disappear in 2030, much less as Nokia has predicted

In a constantly changing industry such as technology, medium-term predictions are risky, and long-term predictions tend to be extraordinarily weak. Especially those that forecast what our habits will be like, taking as a reference some incipient innovation that still has everything to prove. This is, in essence, why we find it implausible that smartphones as we know them will disappear by 2030.

Last Monday we told you that Nishant Batra, Nokia’s director of strategy and technology, has predicted that mobile phones will disappear before the end of this decade. And the reason why they will vanish from our lives according to this executive is very surprising. In fact, it seems to us that it is held with very fragile forceps. “We believe that smartphones will be overtaken by the metaverse experience during the second half of this decade,” Batra says.

The metaverse may be going somewhere, but it still has everything to prove

Regardless of its origin, a statement like this is worthless if it is not accompanied by a well-founded description of the context in which this prediction can be triggered. And yes, it seems that Batra thinks he has her reasonably well tied up. According to this executive, in order for the augmented reality and virtual reality devices necessary to access the metaverse to succeed in replacing mobile phones, they must be more ergonomic and cheaper. And yes, there is no doubt that at least these two conditions must be met.

The problem is that right now that horizon seems very far away. The virtual reality headsets that currently offer us a reasonably satisfying experience are not cheap. And they’re not exactly ergonomic either. No laptops. We can be sure that they will improve over the next few years, but assuming that in seven years at most they will displace our smartphones and solve all the technological challenges that still lie ahead are big words.

In addition, beyond the development of technology, for this milestone to occur it will be necessary to break down at least two additional barriers. The first of these is, simply, that man is an animal of habit, and mobile phones have become a completely integrated into our daily lives. In our day to day. And breaking with more than two and a half decades during which its penetration has only increased is not going to be a piece of cake at all.

The second barrier is if possible higher. And it is that the metaverse still has everything to prove. Meta is at the head of the companies that are betting on this ecosystem, but his promise for the moment leaves many doubts. And the economic and technological effort that it is facing to carry out this project is placing Mark Zuckerberg’s company in a very compromised situation, so that in the medium term it seems a difficultly achievable goal.

So much, in fact, that Meta has recently left the ‘top 20’ that includes the most valued companies in the world. At least the metaverse that we have been promised must improve a lot to stop being as ugly and boring as the vision that is proposed to us today. And, above all, it necessarily has to give us a satisfying experience and offer us added value. It must be useful. It’s not impossible that Meta or other companies will be able to do it before the end of this decade, but right now it seems highly unlikely. Almost unrealizable.

Cover image: daniel frank