“I don’t think Kiev can be blamed for this attack, it seems more like the work of a group of radicals who are hardly connected to the Ukrainian government.” That was the first reaction Eugeni Prigozhinleader and founder of the Wagner Group, upon learning of the death of his collaborator Vladlen Tatarskywar correspondent and commentator on the alleged feats of the paramilitary group. Tatarsky was assassinated in Saint Petersburg on the evening of Sunday, April 2.. The Kiev government has distanced itself from her death as it did last August from that of Darya Dugina in a car bomb attack in Moscow.
The murder of one of Prigozhin’s main media collaborators, very critical of the Putin government and its management of the war (remember that Prigozhin and the Ministry of Defense have been in a continuous confrontation for months) and the fact that said murder that it occurred in a cafe that was owned by Prigozhin until very recently suggests that it is a clear message to Prigozhin to finally step aside or carry out his mission without much protest or demand.
When the leader of the Wagner Group speaks of a “group of radicals” it is unlikely that he is speaking of Daria Trepova, the only one arrested for the attack. Trepova, yes, she is an anti-Putin and anti-war activist, but she gives the impression that The same people who orchestrated the attack are the ones who are taking advantage of it to clean up dissident voices.. The Kremlin directly links Trepova to the imprisoned opponent Alexei Navalny and with Volodymyr Zelensky. In other words, the Kremlin opts for the option that Prigozhin considers discarded, one more example of his fierce disagreement.
[Rusia detiene a un periodista estadounidense de ‘The Wall Street Journal’ por espionaje]
Of course, at an official level, there has not been a lack of the posthumous award of the medal of valor to Tatarsky endorsed by Putin himself, but it is clear that something is happening in high places and that the public struggle for power that we have been seeing for referred to Ukraine for so long has definitely crossed the border with Russia. Let us remember that, in his day, the name of the leader of the secret services (FSB), Alexander Bortnikovsounded like a possible alternative to Putin in the event of a coup.
Prigozhin, to his own
Now, Prigozhin is not one to lose heart, you have to admit that. In his fight against everything and everyone, the former restorer published a confusing video that same morning in which he planted a Russian flag and one of the Wagner Group in the middle of the night on what he called “Bakhmut city administration building”. Everything in the video is weird: you can hardly see anything, its geolocation is consequently complicated and the truth is that the building is nowhere to be seen. Aerial images from Monday show that the flags were planted in the middle of some ruins and cast doubt on whether the Bakhmut town hall is under Russian control.
Prigozhin in the video where he announces the seizure of the center of Bakhmut.
The interesting thing about this videobeyond locating ourselves in the street-by-street struggle in Bakhmut, is the language used by Prigozhin. From the outset, the supposed takeover of the city is dedicated to Vladen Tatarsky himself. If the message was “do your thing and shut up”, it seems that Prigozhin is not willing to be bossed around. He will have to prepare the polonium or leave a window open at the next meeting with the high command. By vindicating Tatarsky, the leader of the Wagner Group exposes his murderers. That “group of radicals”, probably close to the Kremlin and perhaps even outside its control.
There is also the question of the “we” that Prigozhin refers to when he talks about the supposed victory. Is it a Russian triumph, as one of the flags indicates, or is it an exclusive triumph of Wagner, as the other suggests? This is precisely what he wanted to avoid at all costs. Sergey Shoiguthe Russian Defense Minister: that Prigozhin somehow seized the credit for conquering the most media-produced city on the entire front and deprived him and his generals of taking the victory photo.
Bakhmut, despite everything, resists
Another thing is that Bakhmut can be considered conquered. It doesn’t seem the case. The coordinated tactic of Wagner and the Russian Regular Army to create a pincer enveloping the defending Ukrainian forces failed long ago. No one thinks of taking Khromove or Ivanivske anymore. No one is contemplating plugging the supply lines from Chasiv Yar. What’s more, at some points there is even talk of counteroffensives that are making the Russians back down.
The only way to take Bakhmut will be by brute force.. Pull and pull from the east and advance stone by stone. Having already crossed the Bakhmutka River, it is true that the troops of the Wagner Group -practically alone- have reached the vicinity of the Town Hall. According to the most reliable situation maps, 30% of the city would still remain in local hands, including the stadium, the museum and the well-known Atlantic and Bakhmut hotels. Ripping off that 30% of his hands is going to take a few weeks and the best thing that can happen to Prigozhin and his team is that there is not a counteroffensive beforehand that turns the tables, as happened in 2014.
Moment of the arrest of Darya Trepova, suspected of the attack in Saint Petersburg.
Reuters
[Los cuernos que llevaron a ‘Cartelito’ a sumarse a las filas de Zelenski: “Vine a morir por desamor”]
By giving up the clamp between Khromove and Ivanivske, Russia and Wagner – one sometimes doubts if they are the same – have not only slowed down their offensive, but have calmed the urgency of the Ukrainian troops in seeking a withdrawal. As long as the road to Chasiv Yar remains open, the risk is low. Just hold on, do as much damage as possible to the invaders, and regroup your forces around the railroad that crosses the city. The advances are undeniable, but very slow. Bakhmut considered herself conquered when Wagner entered the Soledar salt mine on January 13.. It’s been almost three months and here we are.
How much has the evident disorganization of the Russian offensive had to do with this delay? Very much. It has always given the feeling that Prigozhin has donenever better said, war on your own. The effort for Bakhmut is a matter of the Wagner Group, they have carried the majority of the attacks and casualties… and theirs is the flag that flies over some ruins in the center of the city.
The complaints about the lack of support have been constant and it does give the impression that Moscow has abandoned Prigozhin to his fate by playing a double game: if he hit it, he signed his political sentence; if they managed to advance, triumph for glorious Russia. A card game that is getting out of hand, as evidenced by the attack in Saint Petersburg. Beyond his connection to Prigozhin, Tatarsky was nobody. The attack must be the work, therefore, of his enemies… and every day it is clearer who they are.
