President Joe Biden's administration has said it could reimpose oil sanctions on Venezuela Thursday in response to what U.S. officials see as President Nicolás Maduro's failure to live up to his commitments to hold free and fair elections this year.
Unless Maduro makes last-minute concessions, the United States has made clear it is unlikely to renew a six-month license that gave Venezuela a partial sanctions reliefafter an electoral agreement was signed in October between the government and the Venezuelan opposition.
Washington had threatened in recent months with reinstating oil sanctions unless Maduro kept his promises, including allowing the opposition to field the candidate of their choice to run against him in the July 28 elections.
Maduro's government has said it has complied with some of the terms of the agreement signed in Barbados.
Withdrawing US sanctions relief would be a step back from Biden's policy of re-engaging with the Maduro government. The Biden administration is expected not to return to the “maximum pressure” campaign undertaken under former President Donald Trump, according to sources close to the matter.
Concerns about whether reimposing sanctions on Venezuela's energy sector could boost economic growth have weighed on the US decision. world oil prices and increase the flow of Venezuelan migrants toward the US-Mexico border as Biden campaigns for re-election in November.
“We have made it very clear that if Maduro and his representatives do not fully implement their agreements under the Barbados agreement, we would reimpose sanctions, and I would just say stay vigilant,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said at a briefing. press conference in Washington on Tuesday. He did not give further details.
Maduro's government has repeatedly reacted in defiance of Washington's warnings.
“International companies continue to come to Venezuela,” Venezuelan Oil Minister Pedro Tellechea said in Caracas. “With or without sanctions, Venezuela will be respected.”
Venezuela's oil exports rose in March to their highest levels since early 2020 as customers rushed to complete purchases before the possible return of sanctions, reported Reuters this month.
Deliberation of sanctions options
In deliberating how far to go, Biden's aides had discussed a number of options before the license that has allowed Venezuela to freely sell its crude expired, U.S. sources said.
Among the measures they considered was allowing Venezuela to continue shipping oil, but reimposing a ban on the use of US dollars in such transactions.
Not renewing the current license would not rule out the possibility that the United States could at some point issue a new version to replace it if Maduro begins to give ground on his electoral commitments.
However, without a general license, most of the foreign partners of Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA may have no choice but to increase pressure to obtain individual authorizations from the United States.
Miller acknowledged to reporters that Maduro has “maintained certain aspects” of the Barbados agreement, including establishing an electoral calendar and inviting international observers.
But Venezuelan authorities have maintained a ban on María Corina Machado, who resoundingly won the opposition primaries in October, from running and registering her candidacy, while the opposition is currently holding internal negotiations over who could run as a substitute.
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