Once confident Russian President Vladimir Putin may be giving up plans to quickly subdue Kiev and conquer Ukraine, according to the latest assessment by US intelligence services.
US intelligence agencies previously argued that the Kremlin chief believed he needed to conquer Ukraine to fulfill his destiny.
But as the war moves into its second year, US intelligence believes the Russian leader has somehow given in to the realities on the ground.
“We assess that Putin has probably scaled back his immediate ambitions to consolidate control of the occupied territory in eastern and southern Ukraine and to ensure that Ukraine never becomes a NATO ally,” the head of the Intelligence Directorate said on Thursday. National Assembly (DNI), Avril Haines, to members of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
“Russian forces gained less territory in April than in any of the previous three months as they appeared to switch from offensive to defensive operations along the front,” Haines explained.
“Russian forces are facing significant ammunition shortages and are under significant personnel constraints,” it added. “If Russia does not initiate a mandatory mobilization and secure substantial ammunition supplies from third parties, beyond existing deliveries from Iran and others, it will become increasingly difficult for them to sustain even modest offensive operations.”
Haines, echoing a warning in his congressional testimony in March, said Russia and Ukraine remained locked in a “brutally grueling war of attrition in which neither has a definite military advantage.”
Ukraine, he said, continues to rely on Western military aid to push Russia back, while the Kremlin is forced to rely more on asymmetric threats and tactics due to the degradation of its ground forces.
Russia’s ground forces “rely on reserves and reserve equipment,” said Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, also present at the hearing.
“It’s going to take them a while to rebuild,” he told lawmakers as he testified alongside Haines. “Estimates range from five to 10 years depending on how the sanctions affect them and their ability to bring the technology back into force the nuclear option.”
However, Berrier cautioned that the degradation of Russia’s ground forces should not be seen as an indication of general weakness.
“Although their ground forces are degraded at the moment, they will quickly rebuild them,” he said, describing Moscow as “still an existential threat” due to its yet-to-be-tested nuclear forces.
But as to whether Putin might be inclined to use nuclear weapons to alter the course of the war in Ukraine, US intelligence leaders said, as of now, not so much.
“There are a number of scenarios that we have thought about,” Berrier told lawmakers. “At this point, I would say we think it’s unlikely.”
“From an intelligence services perspective, it is highly unlikely,” Haines added.
Drone attack on the Kremlin
Like other senior US officials, Haines and Berrier urged caution regarding Russia’s accusation that Ukraine launched a drone attack against the Kremlin this week as part of an attempt to assassinate Putin.
“You have seen that the Ukrainian government denies any involvement in this and, at this time, we have no information that would allow us to provide an independent assessment on the matter,” he reported.
Haines commented that it is well known that Putin rarely spends the night in the Kremlin, which casts some doubt on the Russian claim.
For his part, Berrier also said that available photos suggested the attack was organized with drones that should have been controlled by someone on the ground, overlooking the Kremlin.
Russia, China
Both Haines and Berrier told lawmakers that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had brought Moscow and Beijing closer together.
“Since the invasion, that closeness has accelerated to a certain degree, and in part this is due to the fact that Russia is increasingly in debt to and needs China,” Haines said.
“And China perceives Russia more and more as a country that was already in the role of little brother, it is often as it is described, however now it is even more in debt and therefore has greater influence.”
Haines warned that this has led to greater cooperation between the two Arctic countries.
“Russia recognizes that they are going to need China and their investment to get some of the resources that they are interested in in the Arctic,” he said. “And as a consequence, China sees an opportunity, and a growing one in light of the current scenario.”
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