Uruguay holds elections on Sunday with the left as the favorite

Uruguay, Latin America’s most stable democracy, will vote on Sunday to elect a successor to center-right President Luis Lacalle Pou, with the left the favorite in a race that appears headed for a runoff.

The leftist Yamandú Orsi, a 57-year-old history teacher, supporter of former president José “Pepe” Mujica and candidate of the opposition Frente Amplio, leads the voting intention with 41%-47%, but would not obtain more than the 50% necessary to win in the first round, according to analysts.

The National Party candidate, Álvaro Delgado, a 55-year-old veterinarian who was secretary of the Lacalle Pou Presidency, has between 20% and 25% support.

Third place, 15% to 16%, would go to 40-year-old conservative lawyer Andrés Ojeda of the Colorado Party, who is gaining ground on the leaders with a vibrant social media campaign. He has pledged to support Delgado if he is eliminated from the race.

Delgado has seen his percentage of support fall in polls in recent months, while Ojeda, considered the “new face” of Uruguayan politics, gained ground with policies on mental health, crime and child poverty.

Some 2.7 million Uruguayans are called to vote in Sunday’s elections, which are secret and mandatory.

Uruguayans will elect the new president, 30 senators and 99 deputies, although all of this has been overshadowed by another vote: a plebiscite on retirements that, politicians and analysts have warned, could paralyze the country’s finances.

This referendum dominates the headlines, much more than the presidential race, because the pension proposal would repeal recent reforms, reduce the retirement age by five years, tie pensions to the minimum wage and eliminate private pension fund managers.

Sunday will also decide whether to authorize nighttime police raids on homes, a plebiscite that arises in response to fears about organized crime and public safety.

How different are the platforms of the main candidates?

According to an article by the Wilson Center – a think tank in Washington – Uruguay’s political party system is considered the strongest in the region, and both the Frente Amplio and the ruling coalition parties have strong support bases, which which means that these parties represent the majority of the electorate. As a result, the number of undecided voters in Uruguay is relatively small.

There are marked political differences in the Uruguayan system. Center-right parties would reduce the size of the state and increase bureaucratic efficiency, including in state-owned companies. The National Party candidate, Álvaro Delgado, has explicitly committed not to increase taxes.

The Frente Amplio argues that if it comes to government it would reach a surplus of 2% of GDP by the end of the five-year term, but it is not clear how this would be achieved given that candidate Orsi says he would not increase taxes or reduce the size of the State .

[Con información de AFP, Reuters y The Associated Press]

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