Up to 5 degrees more this century in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean

Sep. 6 () –

The Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East will be a critical point of climate change, because they warm almost twice as fast as the global average and faster than other inhabited areas.

This is the conclusion of a new report produced by an international group of scientists led by the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry and published in the journal Reviews of Geophysics.

The 17 countries included in the report’s analysis are Bahrain, Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.

For the rest of the century, projections based on a business-as-usual path indicate overall warming of up to 5°C or more, being strongest in the summer, and associated with unprecedented heat waves that can be detrimental to society.

In addition, the region will experience a lack of rain that will compromise water and food security. Virtually all socioeconomic sectors are expected to be severely affected, with potentially devastating impacts on the health and livelihoods of the 400 million inhabitants of the EMME (Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East), with worldwide implications.

The report, which was produced in preparation for COP27, which will take place in Egypt in November 2022, provides a comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of recent climate measurement data and analyses, covering a wide range of time scales, phenomena and possible future paths. It identifies the region as a climate change hotspot and also notes that the EMME is rapidly overtaking the European Union as a source of greenhouse gases and becoming a major global emitter.

In addition to the average increase in temperatures, the researchers draw attention to the occurrence of extreme weather events with potentially disruptive social impacts. These include the sharp increase in the severity and duration of heat waves, droughts and dust storms, and torrential rains that are expected to trigger flash floods. The evaluation also includes a discussion on air pollution and land use change in the region, considering urbanization, desertification and forest fires, and includes recommendations for possible climate change mitigation and adaptation measures.

“Business as usual pathways for the future,” that is, projections that do not assume immediate and ambitious climate action to avoid current climate trajectories, “imply a northward expansion of arid climate zones at the expense of more temperate regions” , Explain it’s a statement Dr. George Zittis of The Cyprus Institute, first author of the study.

As a result, snowy mountainous climate zones will decrease during this century. The combination of reduced rainfall and strong warming will contribute to severe droughts. Sea level in the EMME is projected to rise at a rate similar to global estimates, although many countries are unprepared for rising seas. “This would imply serious challenges for coastal infrastructure and agriculture, and can lead to salinization of coastal aquifers, including the densely populated and cultivated Nile DeltaZittis warns.

The projected changes will critically affect virtually all socioeconomic sectors, particularly in a business-as-usual scenario. Jos Lelieveld, Director of the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Institute Professor at the Cyprus Institute and coordinator of the assessment, says: “People living in the EMME will face significant health challenges and livelihood risks, especially disadvantaged communities, the elderly, children and pregnant women.

To avoid the most extreme of severe weather events in the region, scientists stress that immediate and effective climate action is urgent. “The slogan for COP 27 is well chosen: Together for fair and ambitious implementation now,” says Jos Lelieveld. “Given that many of the regional results of climate change are transboundary, greater collaboration between countries is essential to address the expected adverse impacts. The need to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement has become more important than ever,” Lelieveld says.

The study indicates that meeting the main objectives of the Paris Agreement could stabilize the annual temperature increase in the EMME at approximately 2 °C by the end of the century, instead of the devastating 5 °C projected in a scenario of no take action on it.