economy and politics

UN forecasts modest growth in seaborne trade in 2024

UN forecasts modest growth in seaborne trade in 2024

In the case of Latin America and the Caribbean, the report points in particular to the transit interruptions in the Panama Canal, caused by the severe drought of 2023 and early 2024.

“The sector faces many challenges that threaten the efficiency, reliability, resilience and sustainability of maritime transport,” says the Secretary General of this UN agency, Rebeca Grynspan, in the foreword to the report.

“Barely recovered from the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and having begun to adapt to the trade changes caused by the war in Ukraine, global trade and supply chains are now facing a new wave of disruptions,” it adds. .

According to the report, maritime commercial transport, which increased by 2.4% in 2023 to reach 12,292 million tons, has begun to recover after the contraction in 2022.

It is expected to register a modest growth of 2% in 2024, driven by demand for bulk products such as iron, coal and grain, as well as containerized products, and reach an annual average of 2.4% during the period 2025-2029 .

Container trade, which only grew 0.3% in 2023, should rebound by 3.5% in 2024, but long-term growth will depend, according to the UN, on how the industry adapts to the current disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine and growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Disturbances in the Panama Canal

Traffic passing through the Panama Canal and the Suez Canal, two essential arteries of global trade, has fallen by more than 50% by mid-2024, the UN says.

In the case of the Panama Canal, the interruptions caused a 31% increase in navigation distances and a reduction in cargo volumes “exposing the vulnerability of the Panama Canal as a vital maritime route,” the report notes.

Although improved water management has improved by mid-2024, transits continued to decline by around 20% compared to 2023, notes the UN agency, which highlights “the pressing need for port infrastructure resistant to climate change.” throughout the region.”

“Protecting our system is important. Panama needs water, the Canal needs water. It is raining, traffic has already recovered to 37 ships a day, which is more or less the average traffic. The canal is now normal,” he said on Tuesday. in Paris the Panamanian president, José Raúl Mulino, in an interview with three news media, including AFP.

Unctad also points out the situation in Caribbean ports, where port handling rates are “between two and three times higher than in similar ports around the world”, aggravated by management and infrastructure problems.



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