In the last twenty-four hours, Ukraine could have recovered in northern Bakhmut alone the equivalent of what was conquered by Russia in the two and a half months previous. The offensive continues on the flanks of the city while the siege of supply routes continues, with attacks like the one suffered by the capital of Lugansk this Friday. According to Serhii Cherevaty, spokesman for the Ukrainian armed forces on the eastern front, between Thursday and Friday there were forty battles that would have caused the death of 190 Russian soldiers and a total of 449 casualties between deaths, wounded and prisoners.
Although the figure must be taken, like all the officers of either side, with tweezers, it fits with the information that he has been publishing on his different social networks Eugeni Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, for a couple of weeks. In a new video that came to light on Friday afternoon, Prigozhin confirmed what several Telegram channels had already published: while Wagner continued to push into the interior of Bakhmut – according to his words, they only have about fifteen buildings left to capture -, the flanks, defended by regular Russian troops, are collapsing.
In the north, the Russian high command itself acknowledged this Friday that his troops had withdrawn strategically to the Berkhivske reservoir. The move seems desperate and dangerous: the Russian Army, headless, disordered and exhausted, has little desire to fight, as attested by the numerous images of desertions that populate the networks. In case of a new rout, Ukraine would have the expedited path to Krasna Hora and Soledar. That would mean completely encircling Bakhmut from that angle.
A Ukrainian soldier gives water to a captured Russian soldier near the battle line in Bakhmut on Friday.
In the south, Ukrainian troops continue to push the Russians away from T0504, advancing east of Ivanivske in the direction of Klishchiivka. It is estimated that They have recovered about nine hundred square meters of land, threatening the surroundings of the industrial college, in the interior of the city. There is no precise information on exactly where the Russian troops will be able to stop their withdrawal. Most likely they will end up having to seek refuge from Wagner among the ruins.
the death trap
As Prigozhin rightly says, if this fall of the flanks and the consequent sacking of the city is confirmed, the conquest of Bakhmut would be of no use to Russia. On the contrary. Both his and Wagner’s regular troops they would be locked upwith no choice but to flee to the east in the event of a probable frontal attack, which is now easier than ever thanks to the liberation of the Khromove road, 0506, which links the suburb with Chasiv Yar, the large reserve nucleus of Ukraine in the area.
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Bakhmut, as we said, is a pile of ruins without any use. The idea of the taking of the city was based on two assumptions that have been shown to be wrong: firstly, that by forcing Ukraine to defend a city so close to the Sloviansk-Kramatorsk axis, the rest of the eastern front would be left unprotected. The truth is that it has been the other way around, as shown by the advances in Siversk and Vuhledar in recent days and the inability for months of Russian troops to launch a successful offensive anywhere on the map.
Second, control of the Soledar-Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar axis could allow Russia to continue its offensive both to the north and, hopefully, to the west. If Wagner could send the Ukrainian forces routing or deplete them enough to cause a small sinking, Russia could gain a lot of space and even threaten Zaporizhia. In and of itself, Bakhmut’s control as such, beyond the later opportunities he opened up, was irrelevant. Without a building standing, it is even more irrelevant. Surrounded by Ukrainian troops, it is directly a death trap.
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Prigozhin, to his own
While Russian propagandists are perplexed by the situation —they don’t know which side to choose, whether the ruling party, who insists that everything is under the control, or that of their new hero Prigozhin, who after all is the one who is putting the dead in this war—, the leader of the Wagner Group has insisted this Friday in his criticism of the Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, whom he has invited to Bakhmut to see if everything was really in order, and the head of the Armed Forces, Valeri Gerasimov, according to he guilty of lack of supply and the consequent collapse of the front.
Prigozhin insists that if the situation is not reversed, that is, if the promised ammunition is not sent to him —if it exists—, Russia faces a “global tragedy”… and reason is not lacking. Sooner or later, the invading Army is going to find itself in a position similar to the one Ukraine had to face in February and March: deciding between hold out at Bakhmut or withdraw to the east before facing thousands of human losses. The consequences of losing control over the T0504 in the direction of Popasna may be definitive for the defense of Donbas. It is a poorly protected area and the Ukrainian advance would be difficult to stop.
Yevgueni Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, during a video posted this week on his social networks.
In any case, most likely, Bakhmut and the eastern front in general will not be the priority of the Ukrainian high command in the spring-summer offensive. What we are witnessing is rather an exercise in self destruction and not to an organized attack by Ukraine. The objective, necessarily, must be to prevent the possibility of movement of troops between the eastern and southern front, to then advance to the other side of the Dnieper River and recapture the Energodar nuclear power plant and the key city of Vasiliivka. All this would allow progress towards Melitopol, Berdiansk and Mariupol in the medium or long term and, consequently, isolate the Crimean peninsula. Only then, perhaps, could kyiv consider peace negotiations. Before, impossible.
