The drone attack this Saturday on a fuel depot located in Sevastopol – located a few meters from the most important Russian naval base in the Black Sea – together with the establishment this week of a beachhead in front of Kherson, constitute the first two steps taken by Kiev in order to recover Crimea.
Although today Russia does not have to regret large losses, only the fuel for four tanks, no deaths, the message left by the Ukrainian president, Volodimir ZelenskyIt is clear: Ukraine has the operational capacity to reduce the Russian infrastructure on the peninsula in the face of a future offensive.
It is not the first time that kyiv has struck Crimea in recent months. Last October, the bridge that connects Crimea with Russia, Putin’s pride and symbol of the Kremlin, was damaged after an attack that surprised Russian intelligence itself.
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In this sense, Zelenski is clear: only the full return of all the territories occupied by Russia, including the aforementioned peninsula, will constitute a fair offer to sit down to negotiate peace, however, his ‘allies’ doubt. The cost of entering the Crimea by force, as he warned Dmitri Medvedevvice president of the Moscow security council, may lead to a scenario NATO does not want to hear about: a push-the-nuclear-button response.
Russia considers Crimea as its own territory and, therefore, in the words of the aforementioned senior official, any attempt to reconquer it by kyiv would be interpreted by Russia as “a situation in which all conditions for the use of any weapon would be met“, including nuclear.
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“If we talk about serious offensives linked to the attempt to retake Crimea by force, it is completely clear that this will be considered as a reason for the use of any means, including those provided for in the nuclear containment doctrine,” Medvedev said last month. March.
This being the case, it does not seem that Ukraine is going to give up its efforts to recover territory. This week, Zelensky’s army established a beachhead in front of Kherson, which was the first step militarily towards an offensive on the Crimea.
… and counting. pic.twitter.com/QlpteK6nKz
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 29, 2023
It remains to be seen whether Kiev, now that its spring offensive appears to be beginning, has the means at its disposal to push Russia back into territory whose beaches are mined and riddled with trenches. The challenge, for the moment, does not intimidate Zelenski.
Since the start of the war, according to figures from the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, Kiev has managed to destroy nearly 180,000 Russian soldiers, 3,600 tanks, 7,000 armed cars, 2,900 artillery pieces, 2,400 drones and 500 missile launchers.