The opposition to the government of Nicolás Maduro faces a strategic challenge as the swearing-in date of a new president in Venezuela approaches, on January 10: whether to continue bidding for what it considers its victory in the July presidential elections, or if you get ready (or not) to participate in the election of local authorities scheduled for 2025.
Various political sectors, analysts and figures critical of Chavismo and its opposition have supported in recent weeks their idea that the country must overcome the controversy of the July 28 vote, accept the victory and swearing-in of Maduro and prepare for the votes of the next year of 335 mayors, 23 governors and more than 270 deputies.
María Corina Machado, considered the great mobilizer of the opposition and of the presidential candidacy of Edmundo González Urrutia, now exiled in Spain, last week repudiated the calls to turn the page on elections in which the opposition claims to have won with more than 37 points. of advantage and that would give him the highest political position in the country.
“Fuck him! They don’t understand the country. “They are not listening to Venezuelans,” Machado said during an interview with the digital media. The Great Village. In his opinion, these initiatives “seek to whitewash and normalize Maduro or divide the opposition.”
Both she and González Urrutia have called in interviews and international forums for the international community to reinforce its pressure against Maduro to “enforce respect” for the popular sovereignty expressed on July 28, according to the voting records.
New rules, greater distrust
In September, the ruling party held talks with various political sectors in the National Assembly, which dominates in numbers, to modify laws for upcoming elections and define who could participate. According to preliminary discussions, Chavismo would prevent “fascists” and those who are unaware of Maduro’s victory from participating.
“This contradicts the constitutional parameters on the power to elect and be elected,” with a single exception for not being able to be a candidate if there is a final criminal sentence against him, explains Venezuelan political scientist Doriam González.
According to González, Chavismo is willing to organize electoral processes in Venezuela “if they do not undermine its interest in remaining in power” and with the participation of “those who have the ability to circumvent these legal filters” to be approved.
In practice, the opposition faces “a dilemma” divided into two groups, he says: those who want to participate in the upcoming votes and those who question getting involved in a new election even with the open wounds of the presidential election.
An “almost unapproachable” idea
Víctor Maldonado, a political scientist, assesses that the idea of a new vote in Venezuela “is almost unapproachable” due to “the demonstrations of devastation of the rule of law” by a large part of the national and international community regarding the presidential election in July.
He estimates that political parties are going through a crisis of “vacuum of legitimacy and good sense” while the country faces the challenge of “what to do from now on and how to process” the controversy over the electoral results of just three months ago.
This challenge, believes the political science expert and university professor, “cannot be summarized or concentrated in that phrase of turning the page.”
“When you turn the page, you forget. We must take due note of the structural and institutional circumstance that we live in,” says Maldonado, considering that political actors must “re-evaluate” whether democratic conditions and guarantees exist.
“If deep down there is no commitment to justice and there is no respect for democratic values or appreciation for the Republic, all of this is meaningless,” he points out.
Is the presidential election a closed case?
Political scientist Jesús Castillo Molleda assumes that the controversy over who won the elections in July “is already resolved” institutionally, through the bulletin of the National Electoral Council and a ruling from the Electoral Chamber of the Supreme Court of Justice.
The local political agenda seems aimed at Maduro being sworn in on January 10 for another 6-year presidential term, while the opposition’s agenda focuses on calls for the international community to vindicate the July election, he indicates.
For Castillo Molleda, “it is a reality” that there will be regional and parliamentary elections in 2025, where more than 6,300 political positions will be defined throughout Venezuela.
In his opinion, the opposition will have “a great opportunity” not to repeat its call for abstention, as in the parliamentary elections of 2005 and 2020 and the presidential election of 2018.
“The call to abstain is a weakness in the opposition, no matter what they say. Yes, it is necessary to turn the page in Venezuela,” he comments to Voice of America.
Elections with a “bitter taste”
Jesús Seguías, political environment analyst and president of the Datincorp firm, warns that the July 28 election “left a very bitter taste” in the Venezuelan electorate.
Only a new round of political agreements between the government and its opposition will be able to help “rescue the trust of Venezuelans” ahead of the 2025 elections, he interprets.
“Many Venezuelans are not going to participate in a regional election as long as there are doubts about the July 28 elections,” says Seguías, whose firm published surveys that gave a comfortable advantage to the opposition before the presidential election.
Venezuela is no longer going through a time of presentation and demand for July voting minutes, he says. “It is focused on a political scenario,” he highlights.
Maduro has warned that he considers the presidential election chapter closed and that he will remain in power until 2031. The opposition continues to demand respect for his alleged victory, while its leaders, activists and protesters are imprisoned and repressed.
“The electoral scenario of July 28 is already practically a factor surpassed by the political issue,” Seguías concludes. “As long as the political vacuum that exists at this moment is not defined, the distrust (to go to another election) is going to be very great,” he maintains.
González, for his part, warns about the “precarious institutionality” that has been reported in Venezuela for years before the presidential election in July.
In light of the controversy over the result announced by the CNE, the question is whether institutional Chavismo will be willing to “hand over” to an opposition that doubts its legitimacy dozens of key governorships, mayoralties and deputies in an upcoming election.
According to his analysis, this electoral future will be influenced by two decisive dates for national and international politics: November 5, with the election of a new president in the United States, and January 10, when the Venezuelan president must be sworn in.
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