Türkiye could give this Sunday, May 14, a radical political turn. The appointment with the polls could be the end of Two decades with Recep Tayyip erdoğan in front, with a society divided into supporters and detractors of the current president. This decision is in the hands of some 64 million Turks3.5 million of them abroad, who will elect the head of state already the 600 deputies that will make up the Parliament.
According to the polls, Erdogan will lose the elections in the first round against Kemal Kilicdaroglu (the second round would be held on May 28 between the two most voted candidates). The opposition leader is backed by a heterogeneous alliance of parties: from social democrats to Islamists and nationalists, with ideological divisions but united against the authoritarianism of the president. Polls give Kiliçdaroglu a advantage of between three and ten pointsbut it is not clear if he will achieve an absolute majority.
Two visions compete for power: that of Erdogan, determined to turn Türkiye into a great Islamic powerand that of the opposition alliance that promises democratize the country and bring it closer to the West. While Erdogan declares himself the only way to “survival”, in the opposition these elections are taken as “the last exit” to the dictatorship.
A woman reacts as Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan holds a rally in Istanbul, Turkey, on May 13, 2023.
Reuters
Russia, one of the closest allies of the current Turkish president, plays a decisive role in these legislations. The opposition has denounced that Moscow has interfered with ‘fake news’ in the election campaign. However, these accusations have been denied by the Government, which considers them “unfair” by creating “suspicion in the electoral atmosphere.”
Turkish citizens will therefore have to decide whether to vote for the Islamist side of the current president, with his alliance of parties led by his Islamist AKP, or whether to opt for Kiliçdaroglu and the social democracy CHP, an alliance of nationalists and Islamists. This last block is also supported by the pro-Kurdish left HDP.
[La huella de los 20 años de Erdogan en Turquía: caos económico, islamización y concentración del poder]
Despite the fact that the polls predict a victory for Kiliçdaroglu in this first presidential roundalthough without an absolute majority to avoid a second round for the parliamentarians- it is not expected that neither the Erdogan bloc nor the opponent will have an absolute majority, so the role of the HDP will be decisive.
An opposition victory would ease the diplomatic tensions that Turkey has maintained in recent years with almost all of its neighbors and would substantially improve relations with the European Union and the NATOof which Türkiye is a member, although without breaking with Russia, business and political partner. Erdogan and Kiliçdaroglu have announced that they will restore relations with Syriawhich could end up assuming a withdrawal of Turkish troops from Syria.
Erdogan urged opposition candidate Kılıçdaroğlu to be ashamed of his allegations of “Russian interference” in Turkey’s elections.
“Kemal began to pester Russia, claiming interference in the elections. Be ashamed. If I now say that the USA, Germany, England, France are… pic.twitter.com/fXvhOIYrDD
—Spriter (@Spriter99880) May 12, 2023
a polarized country
“At present, the main division element manifests itself between pro erdoğan and the against Erdoğan“, pointed to the agency efe the political scientist Güven Gürkan Öztan. This fracture has been deepening for ten years, from the massive protests of the year 2013which united different social and political groups against the then growing authoritarianism from Erdoğan. “The protests were a prediction that Erdogan and the akp (his party) they would become even more authoritarianand that’s how it has been,” said Öztan.
Kemal Kilicdaroglu with supporters at the mausoleum of the founder of modern Turkey, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, on May 13, 2023.
Reuters
For this reason, although within the opposition bloc there are Islamist parties that share with Erdogan the idea of an Islamization of society, or nationalists, who coincide in their strong hand against the kurds, reject clearly authoritarian style of the president and the “one man regime” model that he has imposed
This situation is even manifested in the concern of many Turks for the economy, with a heavily devalued lira and one strong inflation that has eaten up the savings of many families and has skyrocketed the cost of living.
One of these four people are likely to be on the ballot paper to face Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Turkey’s most important election since multiparty democracy began in more than 75 years ago.
We break down each candidate in around 500 words. ?? pic.twitter.com/E3IysbmLQU
—JamesInTurkey.com (@jamesinturkey) January 11, 2023
Öztan warned the news agency that “it is too optimistic” to say that Erdogan will be decisively defeated in the elections, although he does make it clear that it is the first time that the opposition can seize power. “The political environment that has dominated Türkiye for a while makes it difficult for people to openly express their preferences by a political party. That’s why, it’s not easy to trust polls of opinion”, points out Tarik SengülProfessor of Political Science at Middle East Technical University.
