Contacts with the ex-Soviet countries of the two regions to create the Trans-Caspian Corridor. Turkish geopolitical interests collide with those of China. The possible mediation of Kazakhstan. The Turkmens, cautious: they do not want internal interference.
Moscow () – Before making an official visit to Kazakhstan, the President of Turkey, Recep Tayyp Erdogan, received his Kyrgyz counterpart, Sadyr Zhaparov, as part of the events of the IV World Nomad Games in Iznik, in which all Central Asian countries participate. The Turkish leader also invited Turkmenistan to participate in the Trans-Caspian structural axis project, which brings together the former Soviet countries in the area.
As Turkish Foreign Minister Mevljut Cavusoglu assured, Ashgabat could soon become a full member of the Organization of Turkish States (OET), in which it currently only participates as an observer. The decision in this regard will be taken on November 11, at the OET summit in Samarkand.
The Nomadic Games were first organized in Kyrgyzstan in 2014 in Cholpon-Ate: athletes from 19 countries participated in 10 different types of competitions. Bishkek promoted the subsequent editions, in 2016 and 2018, on the bank of the Issyk-Kula. The initiative then passed into the hands of Turkey, which saw in this event an excellent opportunity to relaunch its role in the region, and gave the Games a much greater role: 3,000 athletes from 102 countries around the world participated in this edition.
The next edition will be held in Kazakhstan, which has the support of Ankara to organize the event. This was stated by Erlan Koshanov, president of the Mazhilis (Astana House of Parliament), after a conversation with Erdogan himself in which the Turkish president’s trip to Kazakhstan was discussed. Erdogan thus corresponds to the visit of Kazakh President Tokaev last May, when they launched the Turkish-speaking “Eurasian association”, with which they seek to distinguish themselves from the Russian bellicosity.
This alliance takes on an even more pronounced meaning after Astana made it clear that it has no intention of recognizing the annexation of Moscow-occupied Ukrainian territories, and Turkey’s official stance appears similar. As Cavusoglu reiterated: “The occupied lands belong to Ukraine; Turkey has not even recognized the annexation of Crimea, and we have no intention of recognizing the referendums held on Ukrainian territory.”
Russian historian Aleksandr Knjazev of the Moscow International Research Institute believes that Kazakhstan is at a crossroads: “Astana tries to maintain its versatile position in foreign policy, but the possibilities are reduced in this regard. Turkey is a channel for the realization of many projects, but it is quite narrow and perhaps not decisive enough,” he explained in an interview with Nezavisimaja Gazeta.
The Trans-Caspian axis is of particular importance in this context, because on this route the interests of Turkey intersect with those of China. The freight transport routes are the same, although the supply of energy resources has opposite directions – between Asian and European interests – and here the mediation of Kazakhstan could play a crucial role.
Turkey would remain the main transport hub, China would have access to new canals to the West, as Astana looks both east and west. There is great uncertainty about the Caucasian corridor of Zangezur, still affected by the hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which Turkey intends to help resolve as soon as possible.
Kyrgyzstan is also under Turkey’s scrutiny, as evidenced by their joint participation in the Nomad Games, which, according to Zhaparov, are of paramount importance for “the world ethno-sports and ethno-cultural movement, an achievement of human civilization.” That is why the talks with Erdogan were “very intense”, as the press office in Bishkek assures, although Ankara did not make a statement in this regard.
It should be noted that Central Asian presidents also make calculations dictated by the search for internal consensus. Tokaev is preparing for next month’s presidential elections – a momentous challenge for him. For his part, Zhaparov has to face internal opposition, which accuses him of weakness and corruption for the maneuvers around the Kumtor gold mine, which have come to light in recent days.
Optimistic predictions about Turkmenistan’s accession to the ETO have been repeated for years. However, Ashgabat’s mistrust and fears of possible interference remain very strong. The new president Serdar Berdymuhamedov, like his predecessor, seems to prefer a “hands-off” policy towards his enterprising neighbors. Turkey has a lot of work to do to realize its neo-Ottoman dream of Eurasian domination.
