trade war and probable abandonment of Ukraine

“The greatest comeback in American political history. Congratulations to President Donald Trump. A much needed victory for the world!“, Orbán wrote on his social network account. As expected, the Hungarian Prime Minister was one of the first to congratulate the republican candidate. The surprise is that the rest of the European leaders have then followed in a cascade, in a coordinated choreography that suggested a kind of peace offer to Trump. “Let’s work together on a solid transatlantic agenda that continues to deliver results for our citizens,” proposed the president of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.

But the truth is that for most European leaders, Trump’s victory is a nightmare scenario that surprises the EU in the worst case scenario. In Brussels, the transition to Von der Leyen’s second term has not yet been completed: her team is still being examined by the European Parliament and will not be voted on until the end of the month. The Franco-German engine has long since ceased to function, with Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz very weakened internally. The President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, will not attend the Budapest summit for the DANA in Valencia.

“I just spoke with Chancellor Scholz. We are going to work for a more united, stronger and more sovereign Europe in this new context. Cooperating with the United States of America and defending our interests and values,” the French president announced.

The only European leader who now has some political capital is Donald Tuskwho was also president of the European Council between 2014 and 2019. “Harris or Trump? Some claim that the future of Europe depends on the American elections, when in reality it depends, first of all, on us. On the condition that Europe mature and believe in your own strength. Whatever the outcome, the era of geopolitical outsourcing is over“, he wrote in X just before the elections.

Contrary to Tusk’s words, the truth is that Europeans fear that the return of donald trump to the White House would translate into the short-term fall of Ukraine and a weakening of NATO that would clear the way for new attacks from the Kremlin. “It would be a catastrophic mistake for the United States to withdraw from NATO, but it is a real possibility in a second Trump administration. “It would be a terrible blow to American and Western interests in general around the world,” he recently wrote. John Boltonwho was National Security Advisor to the election winner during his first term.

The new Secretary General of NATO, the Dutchman Mark Ruttewas among those who were quickest to congratulate Trump. “Your leadership will once again be key to keeping our Alliance strong.. I hope to work with him again to promote peace through strength through NATO,” defended Rutte, one of the few European leaders who managed to maintain a cordial relationship with the president during his first term.

“When President Trump takes office on January 20, he will be welcomed by a stronger, larger and more united Alliance. Two-thirds of allies now spend at least 2% of GDP on defense and military spending and production are on an upward trajectory throughout the Alliance,” underlines Rutte.

In the weeks before the elections, both the EU and the Atlantic Alliance have multiplied efforts to shield aid to Ukraine from Trump. The most visible result is the loan of 50,000 million of dollars orchestrated by the G7, which must be paid for with the profits generated by the assets of the Central Bank of Russia frozen in Europe. NATO also intends to assume the tasks of coordinating military assistance to kyiv that Washington has carried out until now.

The Republican candidate has repeated in the campaign that he will end the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours”, without giving too many details. His most vocal ally in the EU, the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbánhas explained that his strategy consists of “won’t give a penny” to Ukraine. “Therefore, the war will end, because it is obvious that Ukraine cannot take care of itself“said Orbán after meeting with Trump in March at Mar-a-Lago. Pending what happens in this Tuesday’s elections, Budapest is blocking alone in the EU a fund of 6.6 billion military aid to kyiv.

“We cannot expect the United States to protect us. Europe must take its destiny into its own hands“. This is the call that the then chancellor launched in 2018, Angela Merkelwhen Brussels had already experienced first-hand the chaos of Trump’s first term. Since then, The EU has considerably increased its defense spendingespecially since the outbreak of war, but it is still a long way from achieving strategic autonomy or even being able to sustain Ukraine alone.

“Can Europe fill the void left by the US? Certainly, Europe cannot replace the United States“, admitted the head of community diplomacy, Josep Borrell, when the North American Congress blocked an aid package of $60,000 for kyiv, precisely at the request of Trump’s followers.

In trade matters, the Republican candidate continues to consider Europeans as “enemies.” “The EU treats us so badly,” he said in a recent interview. His plan consists of impose tariff surcharges of up to 20% on all imported products (including community fees), which will rise to 100% in the case of cars. “Whoever wins, if trade fragmentation worsens, the effect on global GDP will be negative, with losses that could reach 9% in a serious scenario of total decoupling,” warns the president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Unlike what happened in 2016, this time the Commission Ursula von der Leyen has prepared a complete arsenal to respond to any Trump decision on trade matters “from minute one”, as European sources confirm to EL ESPAÑOL-Invertia. A list of small agreements that Brussels will offer the Republican candidate, but also a list of American products to hit where it will do the most damage if the Republican candidate does not listen to reason and continues with his tariffs. It’s about preparing for the best and the worst.

However, the biggest risk posed by Trump’s return to the White House is deepening internal divisions in the EU. In 2020, European leaders managed to speak with a single voice to recognize Biden’s victoryjust when the Republican candidate questioned the election results. The only one to distance himself was the Slovenian populist Janez Jansawhich tweeted that it was “pretty clear” that Trump had won even before the official results were declared.

This time, the fractures were already much more visible even before the polls opened, due to Orbán’s stellar role. The big unknown is how the Italian prime minister will react, Giorgia Meloniwhich until now has aligned itself with the official position of the EU on fundamental issues such as Ukraine, but which at the same time maintains close ties with the Trump galaxy, as evidenced by its recent meeting with Elon Musk.

In campaign, Meloni he avoided expressly supporting the Republican candidate. His official line was that relations between Italy and the United States are very solid and that his Government will continue to work with the Washington administration regardless of who the new president is. He thus distanced himself from his government partner, Matteo Salviniwhich I do publicly bet on Trump. However, Meloni’s team privately slipped that she aspires to become a “privileged interlocutor” and a “bridge” between the EU and, in the event of the victory of the Republican candidate.

“Italy and the United States are ‘brother’ nationsunited by an unbreakable alliance, common values ​​and a historic friendship. It is a strategic link, which I am sure we will now strengthen even more. Good job, President Trump,” Meloni wrote in X.

All these internal tensions will be staged in the informal summit of Heads of State and Government of the EU which takes place this Friday in Budapest. It is the first opportunity that European leaders will have to react collectively to the result of the elections in the US. A meeting whose host is precisely Orbán – since Hungary holds the current presidency – and in which, depending on the results, the conflict could openly break out.