top leaders withdraw from presidential campaign

Argentina’s three most recent presidents have withdrawn from the campaign for the October general election, leaving the race wide open and the outcome hanging in the balance with the only safe candidate, a far-right libertarian who wants to dismantle the central bank.

Political uncertainty has rocked Argentina’s already creaky financial markets, with a run on the peso over the past week driving it to record lows in popular black markets. Inflation is 104.3% and almost one in four people is in poverty.

“It’s a coin toss,” Shila Vilker, director of pollster Trespuntozero, told Reuters of the race. “What we see is a lot of fragmentation in what is offered politically.”

President Alberto Fernández, whose popularity has plummeted, last week ruled out a re-election bid. His predecessor, Mauricio Macri, one of the leaders of the main opposition party, will also be left out of this contest.

Influential Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, a sharply divided leftist who enjoys fervent unconditional support, said in December that she would not run at all in the 2023 election after being found guilty of corruption.

The opposition coalition Together for Change remains in the driver’s seat, polls show. But what seemed like a sure win last year now looks more muddled, with libertarian economist Javier Milei appealing to voters from major parties on the left and right.

“There is an upward trend of voters very angry with politics who are apparently opting for this new force,” said Facundo Nejamkis, director of the Opina Argentina polling firm.

Vilker credits Juntos por el Cambio with a total of 33% of the likely vote, the ruling Peronist coalition with 28-29% and Milei with 24%. Opina estimates 31%, 26% and 23% respectively. However, Milei tops the list of individual candidates rather than parties.

“We represent a real transformational alternative to the political cabals that have ruled us for decades,” Milei, who proposes to dollarize the economy and eliminate the central bank, told Reuters.

“We will beat any candidate that comes our way.”

Cristina for President?

Whoever is on the air will probably decide in the August primary. The favorites of the conservative opposition are the current mayor of the city of Buenos Aires, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, and the former Minister of Security Patricia Bullrich.

The Peronists, reeling from the economic crisis, are even more divided. Potential candidates are Economy Minister Sergio Massa, veteran politician Daniel Scioli and Interior Minister Eduardo De Pedro. Vice President Kirchner could even make a shock comeback, with supporters calling for her to run.

“We are putting all our hope in her,” Norma Varela said during a march in support of the VP in April, where people carried banners reading “Cristina for President.”

“The poor want someone to support us and give us hope.”

Analyst Marcelo Rojas said that the wide range of competitors is affecting the markets. “Potential candidates have wildly divergent plans, from right-wing dollarization to left-wing controls,” he said.

Moderates like Larreta, Massa or Scioli seem strong bets to win a possible second round face to face, if no candidate exceeds 45% in the first round. But they could fail in the primary or general vote as more options split the vote.

A Larreta spokesman said the candidate was confident that moderate voters would come out of nowhere.

“They are a silent majority that we are betting on,” he said.

A spokeswoman for the ruling coalition said things remained “undefined”. Other candidates declined to comment.

On the streets of the capital, Buenos Aires, voter Raúl Vázquez was pessimistic regardless of who ultimately wins.

“Everyone who comes to power does the same: promises, promises. But then they forget about the town,” he said. “I see a lot of people in need on the streets, jobs are needed. They make a lot of plans but do nothing.”

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