Bakhmuta relatively small industrial city in eastern Ukraine and now reduced to rubble, marks the first Moscow Grand Prix in more than 10 months, even if it is considered a ‘symbolic’ victory by USA and the NATO. He wagner group has provided to Vladimir Putin the triumph necessary to reinforce the reputational interests of the Kremlin, both nationally and internationally. A conquest that, despite having resulted in thousands of human lives on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, is justified in order to achieve its political objectives.
As reported by the head of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Bakhmut – the focus of the longest and bloodiest battle of the war – is already under Russian control. This statement was denied by Ukraine. The spokesman of the Eastern command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Serhiy Cherevatyassured that “is a lie” and that his units “fight in Bakhmut”. However, the Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister, Hanna Malyarhas ensured that “The situation is critical”.
Prigozhin has recognized that Bakhmut has little strategic importancedespite its great symbolic importance due to the magnitude of the losses. Western analysts and diplomats are skeptical of its economic revival from the destruction of the city. The tough battle is reaching its climax just as kyiv is preparing its counteroffensivethe next major phase of the war after six months during which he kept his forces on the defensive while weathering continued attacks from Russia.
???? | More footage from tonight’s incendiary munitions barrage on Bakhmut. pic.twitter.com/E0kz2wuf97
– World in Conflict ? (@MundoEConflicto) May 19, 2023
Bakhmut is part of the industrialized region of Donbas and is considered a regional transportation and logistics hub. The head of the United States Pentagon, Lloyd Austinand the head of the NATO, Jens Stoltenberghave downplayed their possible downfall as ‘symbolic’, as have Western military experts.
However, the reality goes beyond that symbolism sponsored by the West. If it is confirmed that Russia has taken “full” control of Bakhmut, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk (two cities located in the Donetsk region) would be within range of Russian artillery. Moscow needs to control both to complete what it calls its “liberation” from the self-proclaimed ‘Donetsk People’s Republic’.
Ukrainian service members fire a mortar at a front line near the town of Bakhmut.
Reuters
This theory was confirmed by the President of Ukraine, Volodimir Zelensky, to the last march. The president expressed his fear so that Russian forces would have “an open road” to the two cities should they succeed in taking Bakhmut. In fact, the next city to fall to Putin’s troops would be Chasiv Yaralthough it is located on higher ground and Ukrainian forces are believed to have built defensive fortifications nearby.
The real beneficiary
Whether the taking of Bakhmut is considered symbolic or not, it would mean a morale injection for russian troops and, on the contrary, the undermining of Ukrainian spirit. The loss would jeopardize international support, says Michael Kofman, a US military analyst specializing in the Russian Armed Forces. However, Ukraine can take solace in having stood up to Russian forces for so long, leading the rival to infer that any Russian attempt to seize more territory will be just as costly.
However, the biggest winner would be the Wagner Group, since the conquest of the municipality represents a boost towards its advertising campaign and its political influence, something that the Kremlin intends to stop.
[Zelenski presiona a EEUU: utilizará la cumbre del G7 para conseguir cazas de combate para su ofensiva]
Delay in the Ukrainian counteroffensive
The Ukrainian spring counteroffensive is paralyzed at the gates of the arrival of summer. Zelenski has argued that the postponement of it is due to the shortage of Western weapons to be able to face Russia without suffering too many casualties in its ranks.
[Zelenski llega a Hiroshima para participar en la cumbre del G7 y recibir más armamento de EEUU]
Among the different factors is the weather. The thaw of the land and its drying is taking time, so the soil has retained a deep mud that complicates the traffic of vehicles. On the other hand, the delay in the training of its soldiers. The last battalion under US training is still under training.
Both sides are trying to anticipate the counteroffensive. Moscow is opting for a strategy based on the First World War, the trenches, spread out on a 1,000-kilometer front protected by 200,000 troops -more inexperienced troops than those sent at the beginning of the war-.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has opted for long range attacks against the lines of the Russian front, a strategy that could be used to open a path on the ground preparing the counteroffensive, or to force the Kremlin to protect that area fearing the Ukrainian attack and thus depriving other territories.
