This is how Brazil faces its most polarized elections

A cure fakea socialist who speaks like a tiktoker, the angry candidate ‘Lula’ and serene President Bolsonaro: this could be the summary of the last electoral debate, held on the night of September 29 on the Globo television network. It has been the most watched of the last 16 years, with an average of 18 million viewers, although at times it was followed by nearly 60 million people. Considered decisive in stimulating the vote of the undecided, it was marked by numerous attacks between candidates, who accused each other of lying. Little was said about content and proposals for the future of Brazil.

All the polls published in recent weeks indicate that former president Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva has close to 50% of the intention to vote, compared to 36% for Jair Bolsonaro. The useful vote campaign launched by Lula’s team in the final stretch of the campaign seems to be yielding results. It was supported by prestigious economists, intellectuals, artists and politicianswho hope that Lula wins in the first round to avoid the risk of any anti-democratic adventure.

For his part, for months, Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has dedicated himself to attacking the electronic voting system, which allows Brazil to announce the electoral result in a few hours, despite the gigantism of its territory. This week, the Liberal Party, to which Bolsonaro belongs, released a note denouncing flaws in the electronic ballot box mechanism that could affect the election results. In other words, it has once again raised the specter of a hypothetical electoral fraud.

The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) has categorically denied this information, alleging that it is trying to “cause turmoil in the electoral process” and that it threatens the democratic rule of law. It is a fact that this type of attack generates a climate of tension and uncertainty in the most populous country in Latin America. It is for this reason that the TSE itself has prohibited collectors from transporting weapons and ammunition on the weekend of the elections and the day afterat the risk of an escalation of violence.

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The fear of a coup after a Bolsonaro defeat flies over the elections

One day before the closest elections since the end of the military dictatorship in 1985, the country is divided and polarized. The question is what will Bolsonaro and his followers do in case of defeat. In many social sectors, there is fear of a coup or an insurrection led by weapons collectors, who have almost tripled their arsenal thanks to the measures approved by the president. In the background is the attack on the Washington Capitol in January 2021, carried out by supporters of former President Donald Trump.

The increase in electoral violence is proof of the tension that permeates Brazilian society. Till the date, three leftists have been assassinated at the hands of Bolsonarists in various parts of the country. There have also been numerous attacks against militants of the Workers’ Party, founded by Lula in 1980.

In this scenario, spokesmen for the United States have chosen to publicly distance themselves from Bolsonaro. The first blow to the current president came in July, when The US Embassy released a statement in which he defended electronic ballot boxes and branded them an “example for the world”. It happened a few days after Bolsonaro summoned more than 50 ambassadors to denounce possible electoral fraud, without providing evidence.

This week, The United States Senate has unanimously approved a resolution presented by Bernie Sanders and five other Democratic senators to defend democracy in Brazil.

“We are not taking a position on the elections in Brazil. What we are doing is expressing the Senate’s consensus that the United States Government must make it unequivocally clear that the continuity of the relationship between Brazil and the United States It depends on the Brazilian government’s commitment to democracy and human rights,” Sanders argued.

“The Biden administration must make it clear that the United States does not support any government that comes to power in Brazil through undemocratic means and ensure that military assistance is conditioned on democracy and the peaceful transition of power,” he added.

It has not been the only public statement that shows concern with the situation in Brazil. “The international community must support the Brazilian population and unequivocally reject any attempt to disturb their right to vote and deprive them of the right to choose their representatives freely,” said Juanita Goebertus, director for the Americas at Human Rights. Watch.

The role of the military against a possible defeat of Bolsonaro

Meanwhile, many are wondering what the Armed Forces will do in the event of an armed insurrection: whether they will crack down on Bolsonaro supporters, refrain from intervening, or even embrace an attempted coup. We must not forget that more than 6,000 soldiers hold positions in the Bolsonaro government and in many bodies of the Public Administration. For now, the military commanders remain silent and, unlike what happened a few months ago, they have stopped making statements in support of Bolsonaro.

For many analysts, the danger may come from the Military Police of each federal state, which mostly supports Bolsonaro, and from weapons collectors. A report by the Igarapé and Sou da Paz Institutes indicates that in three years the number of weapons registered by hunters, collectors and sports shooters has gone from 350,600 to 1,006,725, registering an increase of 287%.

Saturday, day of last rallies and polls

This Saturday, October 1, on the day of the elections that in many countries is known as electoral silence, the main candidates continue to hold rallies, despite the fact that the electoral campaign has officially concluded. In the final stretch it is forbidden to broadcast electoral advertising in the media and explicitly ask for the vote. However, the Electoral Law allows for marches, caravans and acts with loudspeakers or sound cars until 10:00 p.m. on the day before the elections.

It is a peculiarity of Brazil, which even allows polls to be published until election day. For this reason, President Bolsonaro participates in a motorcycle parade in São Paulo and former president ‘Lula’ also takes a ride in the center of this city, considered the largest electoral college in the country, with 34.6 million voters.

The question remains about what the 42 million Brazilians who in 2018 chose not to speak out at the polls will do. In the last elections, one in three voters opted for abstention or null and blank ballot. If they decide to vote this year, they can change the course of Brazil. It is known that the poorest and least educated sectors of the electorate tend to go to the polls less. And it is in this segment where ‘Lula’ has the greatest intention to vote, according to the surveys. Therefore, if ‘Lula’ manages to seduce the most apathetic and disappointed citizens with politicians, the left will benefit.