The year of Nicolás Maduro and his return to the international arena

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the start of a war that today seems far from over destabilized the oil market in the West, increased crude oil prices considerably and put Venezuelan oil back on the radar of the United States and Europe. Although it is true that it is an oil industry in decline after years of embezzlement and corruption, the natural resources that Venezuela possesses – being the country with the largest crude oil reserves in the world – are an unparalleled attraction for the great powers.

In the opinion of the internationalist Giovanna de Michele, “the largest oil consumers are fully aware that if there is an oil country that could open the tap for crude oil in the international market, it is Venezuela and that is where the most fundamental changes are taking place” . For De Michele, the recent easing of some of the sanctions imposed by the United States on PDVSA and the license granted to the US oil company Chevron “is partly due to the clear awareness that Venezuela is the country that currently has a idle, an inoperative capacity that could begin to mitigate the deficiencies at the international level as long as greater foreign investment is allowed in the country”.

The approach of the Joe Biden Administration to Nicolás Maduro in these circumstances strengthened Maduro and further weakened the Venezuelan opposition, especially the figure of Juan Guaidó, whose interim government practically depended on the recognition and support of the United States.

For the professor and internationalist Giovanna de Michele, the figure of the internship has been blurring over time and will continue to blur as sanctions continue to be made more flexible.

“The only strength that Guaidó has at the moment is that his opposition sector still controls part of Venezuela’s financial resources around the world. To the extent that the sanctions continue to be relaxed and the Maduro Administration has access to these resources, even indirectly, the figure of Guaidó will continue to lose impact, it will continue to lose meaning, ”he said in an interview with France 24.

Latin America turns to the left and ends the isolation of Maduro in the region

Notable political shifts in Latin America also favored the Maduro government, which had been isolated by the so-called Lima Group, a coalition that has since vanished. The most significant case was the coming to power of the Colombian Gustavo Petro. After more than a decade of tense relations with Bogotá and the breakdown of diplomatic relations in 2019, the leader traveled to Caracas to meet Maduro at the Miraflores Palace.

Maduro even became a fundamental piece in the midst of peace negotiations between the Colombian government and the National Liberation Army. The borders between both nations reopened.

But despite these advances in diplomatic and commercial matters, Petro is not considered an unconditional ally for the Nicolás Maduro Administration.

“I do not dare to affirm that the Petro government is a government allied to Nicolás Maduro at all. What I see is that the Petro government is absolutely practical, that it has well-defined goals and purposes in political and economic matters, and Venezuela plays an important role in achieving those goals. Petro’s main goal is to achieve total peace. It is no secret to anyone that Venezuela’s good relationship with the Colombian irregular groups is an important piece in achieving that goal,” says De Michele.

For there to be peace in Colombia, Venezuela has to be involved and there should be peace in Venezuela as well.

Professor and internationalist Felix Gerardo Arellano agrees: “Petro is playing an interesting balance, I think he has done well so far maintaining a positive, serious and solid relationship with the United States and also with Latin America. I think that his priority is the negotiation with the ELN and on this issue, obviously, Venezuela had to be present; whoever doubts that does not know reality. The ELN is in Venezuela, its most aggressive part is in Venezuela. For there to be peace in Colombia, Venezuela has to be involved and there should be peace in Venezuela as well.”

The triumph of Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva in Brazil also meant a radical change in the position towards Venezuela. The elected government announced that it will reestablish diplomatic relations with Venezuela as of January 1, 2023.

Thus, Guaidó lost another ally (as was the government of Jair Bolsonaro) and Maduro recovered an old friend, although he might not be so unconditional.

“I am aware that he will not be the ‘Lula’ of the past. It will not be the ‘Lula’ anti-system, anti-United States, he has no way to be, he has no resources, he has an absolutely polarized country, a Congress against it and a vice president who does not think in that sense (…) He could At this moment ‘Lula’ is observing the intelligent role that Petro is developing in the foreign policy issue due to the good relationship with the United States and with Latin America and the role that it is playing with Venezuela. I would expect ‘Lula’ to join Petro’s scheme”, commented Arellano.

Back to dialogue with the opposition in Mexico

In the midst of negotiations with the Biden government, Maduro achieved in October of this year the release of Efraín Campo Flores and Franqui Flores de Freitas, the two nephews of the presidential couple arrested and sentenced to 18 years in prison for drug trafficking in the United States. Joined. In exchange, the Maduro Administration released seven US citizens, five of them executives of the Citgo oil company detained since 2017 accused of alleged corruption and considered political prisoners of the Government.

An exchange that generated controversy, and rejection by Human Rights Defender Organizations that question that political prisoners in Venezuela are treated as exchange tokens in exchange for political benefits for the Government.

The United States also made it a condition for easing the oil sanctions on Venezuela that the Maduro government return to the dialogue table with the opposition in Mexico. In this context, France played a mediating role. President Emmanuel Macron invited the chief negotiators from both sides to the Paris Forum for Peace. After that meeting, the negotiating table resumed in Mexico and it was agreed to release a fund of about 3,000 million dollars, administered by the UN, to finance a social aid program for Venezuela.

To date, no further details of the agreement have been offered, nor have the resources arrived, but it was undoubtedly an achievement for Maduro. Even so, opposition representatives Gerardo Blyde and Roberto Enríquez insisted that “this is not a blank check for Maduro.”

In the opinion of Professor Giovanna de Michele, “it has become absolutely clear that whoever has the capacity to make decisions that directly impact the lives of Venezuelans and the international community is the one who is sitting in the chair of the Miraflores Palace. This has allowed Nicolás Maduro to be empowered in some way, which does not mean that he has a better image internationally.

Nor does it mean that Nicolás Maduro has regained his legitimacy. “The questions about the legitimacy of origin of this mandate of Nicolás Maduro, the questions about the performance of the Nicolás Maduro Administration in terms of human rights, the questions about the effectiveness of Maduro’s economic policy, the questions about the impact it has had the immense wave of migrants to the whole world, continue”.

“Neither mechanical allies nor repeaters of false speeches”: This is how Arellano defines the relationship with the new left-wing presidents who have approached Maduro after assuming power.

Russia’s war in Ukraine opened the doors for Maduro to return to the international arena as the leader of an oil country. The arrival of Gustavo Petro to the Colombian presidency and his ambition to achieve ‘total peace’ gave Maduro a leading role in the negotiations. Thus, Maduro went from being an isolated president and rejected by a large part of the international community to being today in the spotlight of world geopolitics and with multiple internal and external challenges in this new breath of air for his troubled Administration.